Mission success probability optimization for phased-mission systems with repairable component modules

2020 ◽  
Vol 195 ◽  
pp. 106750 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiangbin Zhao ◽  
Shubin Si ◽  
Zhiqiang Cai ◽  
Peng Guo ◽  
Wenjin Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Success Probability ◽  
Mission Success ◽  
Probability Optimization

scholarly journals Modeling and analysis of mission thread of weapon system of systems based on O-PPN

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 197-207
Author(s):  
Yuqi Chen ◽  
Tingxue Xu ◽  
Xiaotong Zhao ◽  
Cheng Lu
Keyword(s):  
Petri Net ◽  
Success Probability ◽  
Failure Criteria ◽  
Performance Degradation ◽  
Operation Performance ◽  
Modeling And Analysis ◽  
Reliability Parameters ◽  
Mission Success ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Equipment System

Aiming at the problem that the current WSoS mission modeling and analysis methods are difficult to describe the property of multi-state of each equipment system, combining with Petri net and Markov process, an O-PPN based mission thread modeling and analysis method is proposed in this paper. Based on the definition of WSoS, the mission of WSoS is formally described. To improve the traditional Petri net, an operation performance Petri net (O-PPN) is constructed, in order to meet the modeling needs of the general mission thread of the WSoS; and aiming at the problems of the performance degradation of the equipment system and the possible "ahead of time" state, the performance degradation model of the equipment system based on Markov is constructed. The corresponding state probability set is obtained by inputting the reliability parameters of each equipment system. And according to the requirements of each operation in the mission thread for the performance level of each equipment system and combined with the mission success and failure criteria of the combat task and operation, the mission success probability of the whole WSoS is calculated. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed method is verified by the simulation of the case.

scholarly journals Contribution to Availability Assessment of Complex Systems with one Shot Items

2008 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 267-290
Author(s):  
Valis David ◽  
Koucky Miroslav
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Theoretical Approach ◽  
System Performance ◽  
Success Probability ◽  
Dynamic Reliability ◽  
Mission Success ◽  
System Task ◽  
Basic Characteristics ◽  
The One ◽  
Availability Assessment

Contribution to Availability Assessment of Complex Systems with one Shot ItemsAs we use complex systems with one shot items in many technical applications we need to know basic characteristics of such a system. Performance, safety and others are as much important as dependability measures. As the one shot item is supposed to back up the main system function the total reliability of the system should be higher then. The paper will present a theoretical approach to determining the complex system task/mission success probability rather than a theoretical approach to determining the dynamic reliability (operational availability), and then a practical example.

Optimal mission abort policy with multiple shock number thresholds

2018 ◽  
Vol 232 (6) ◽  
pp. 607-615 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Levitin ◽  
Maxim Finkelstein
Keyword(s):  
Success Probability ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Critical Systems ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
System Survivability ◽  
Mission Success ◽  
Human Space Flight ◽  
Aerial Vehicle ◽  
Rescue Procedure ◽  
Multiple Shock

At many instances, it is important to keep a system from being destroyed or “lost” at a cost of not completing its mission. Therefore, to enhance survivability of many real-world critical systems (e.g. aircrafts and human space flight systems), mission abort procedures are often utilized in practice. In this article, in order to suggest an optimal abort policy, we first develop a methodology for obtaining the mission success probability and survivability of system experiencing both internal failures and external shocks. Each shock increases degradation in a system, and therefore, the number of experienced shocks can be considered as a decision parameter. We divide the mission time into a number of adjacent intervals and suggest a policy when a mission is aborted (and a rescue procedure is activated) if the number of shocks exceeds the value predetermined for each interval. We demonstrate the trade-off between system survivability and mission success probability that should be balanced by the proper choice of the mission abort policy. An illustrative example of a mission performed by an unmanned aerial vehicle is presented.

scholarly journals Preventive maintenance for systems with repairable minor failures

2017 ◽  
Vol 231 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maxim Finkelstein ◽  
Mahmood Shafiee
Keyword(s):  
End Of Life ◽  
Preventive Maintenance ◽  
Success Probability ◽  
Repairable Systems ◽  
Minimal Repair ◽  
Reliability Modeling ◽  
Life Event ◽  
Maintenance Strategies ◽  
Numerical Examples ◽  
Mission Success

Reliability modeling of repairable systems deals mostly with two types of repair. Perfect repair brings a system to “as good as new” state. Minimal repair, on the contrary, returns a system to the state immediately prior to failure. In this article, we consider perfect and imperfect preventive maintenance actions for a system subjected to minor and major failures. Minor failures are minimally repaired, whereas a major failure terminates the operational function of the system and can be considered as an end-of-life event. The preventive maintenance strategies that we propose and analyze increase mission success probability and extend the expected lifetime of the system. The modeling is illustrated with numerical examples.

scholarly journals An Accelerated Simulation Approach for Multistate System Mission Reliability and Success Probability under Complex Mission

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Haojie Yang ◽  
Yifan Xu ◽  
Jianwei Lv
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
System Reliability ◽  
Sampling Methods ◽  
Success Probability ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Small Probability ◽  
System Availability ◽  
Multistate System ◽  
Mission Success ◽  
The Relationship

The mission reliability and success probability estimation of multistate systems under complex mission conditions are studied. The reliability and success probability of multistate phased mission systems (MS-PMS) is difficult to use analytic modeling and solving. An estimation approach for mission reliability and success probability based on Monte Carlo simulation is established. By introducing accelerated sampling methods such as forced transition and failure biasing, the sampling efficiency of small-probability events is improved while ensuring unbiasedness. The ship’s propulsion and power systems are used as applications, and the effectiveness of the method is verified by a numerical example. Under complex missions, such as missions with different mission time and their combinations, and phased-missions, the proposed method is superior in small-probability event sampling than the crude simulation method. The calculation example also studies the influence of mission factors or system reliability and maintainability factors on system availability and mission success probability, and analyzes the relationship between different mission types and system availability and success probability.

On Multiple Access of a Large Number of Machine-Type Devices in Cellular Networks

2018 ◽  
pp. 105-114
Author(s):  
O. S. Galinina ◽  
S. D. Andreev ◽  
A. M. Tyurlikov
Keyword(s):  
Success Probability ◽  
Random Access ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Short Time Interval ◽  
Control Mechanisms ◽  
Network Access ◽  
Smart Meters ◽  
Machine To Machine ◽  
Machine To Machine Communication ◽  
Machine Communication

Introduction: Machine-to-machine communication assumes data transmission from various wireless devices and attracts attention of cellular operators. In this regard, it is crucial to recognize and control overload situations when a large number of such devices access the network over a short time interval.Purpose:Analysis of the radio network overload at the initial network entry stage in a machine-to-machine communication system.Results: A system is considered that features multiple smart meters, which may report alarms and autonomously collect energy consumption information. An analytical approach is proposed to study the operation of a large number of devices in such a system as well as model the settings of the random-access protocol in a cellular network and overload control mechanisms with respect to the access success probability, network access latency, and device power consumption. A comparison between the obtained analytical results and simulation data is also offered. 

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