Fire now, fire later: alarm-based systems for prescriptive process monitoring

Predictive process monitoring is a family of techniques to analyze events produced during the execution of a business process in order to predict the future state or the final outcome of running process instances. Existing techniques in this field are able to predict, at each step of a process instance, the likelihood that it will lead to an undesired outcome. These techniques, however, focus on generating predictions and do not prescribe when and how process workers should intervene to decrease the cost of undesired outcomes. This paper proposes a framework for prescriptive process monitoring, which extends predictive monitoring with the ability to generate alarms that trigger interventions to prevent an undesired outcome or mitigate its effect. The framework incorporates a parameterized cost model to assess the cost–benefit trade-off of generating alarms. We show how to optimize the generation of alarms given an event log of past process executions and a set of cost model parameters. The proposed approaches are empirically evaluated using a range of real-life event logs. The experimental results show that the net cost of undesired outcomes can be minimized by changing the threshold for generating alarms, as the process instance progresses. Moreover, introducing delays for triggering alarms, instead of triggering them as soon as the probability of an undesired outcome exceeds a threshold, leads to lower net costs.

Proactive Coping and Mindfulness are Associated with Less Stress in Older Adults

We examined the consequences of both chronic and life-event stressors for older adults, as well as antecedent strategies, such as proactive coping and mindfulness, that may mitigate stress. Given the potential negative outcomes associated with stress in older adulthood, exploring strategies to reduce or mitigate the negative impact of stress may be useful in promoting well-being in adulthood. Proactive coping involves an accumulation of resources that leads to reduced or avoided stressors in the future (Aspinwall & Taylor, 1997). Mindfulness calls an individual’s attention to the present moment, or may be characterized as an open, accepting attitude (Brown & Ryan, 2003). Using data from the Mindfulness and Anticipatory Coping Everyday study (English et al., 2019; Neupert & Bellingtier, 2017), 296 older adults in the United States, aged 60-90 years (M = 64.67, SD = 4.36), participated in relevant online survey measures. Results from multiple regression analyses suggested that people high in both chronic stress and life event stress had worse health, and that people high in proactive coping and mindfulness reported less stress. Study results underscore the impact of stress on health outcomes, and provide support for the use of antecedent strategies to address negative impacts of stress.

The relationship between self-traumatized and self-vulnerable automatic associations and posttraumatic stress symptoms among adults who have experienced a distressing life event

Convergent evidence supports a crucial role for dysfunctional appraisals in the development and maintenance of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, most research in this area has used self-report measures, assessing only explicit forms of such negative cognitions; the relevance of their more automatically-activated counterparts, as assumed by cognitive models, remains relatively unexplored. The current study aimed to further our understanding of the potential utility of measuring automatic dysfunctional associations in the context of posttraumatic stress. The relationship between scores on two different implicit association tests (IATs) and posttraumatic stress symptoms was investigated in a sample of adults (N = 279) who reported having experienced a potentially traumatic negative life event. Participants completed the two IATs (one assessing self-traumatized associations, the other self-vulnerable associations), a self-report measure of dysfunctional appraisals, and measures of posttraumatic stress symptoms and other aspects of psychopathology online. Scores indicating higher levels of dysfunctional associations on both IATs were associated with higher levels of posttraumatic stress symptoms. Only scores on the IAT measuring self-vulnerable associations, and not the IAT measuring self-traumatized associations, continued to show an association with posttraumatic stress symptoms after controlling for explicit dysfunctional appraisals. Overall, the results indicate the value of investigating PTSD-relevant automatic associations to further develop our understanding of cognitive processes implicated in posttraumatic stress.

When words become difficult: a critical reflection of the ‘MeBox’ method in understanding senior travellers’ responses to loss

Multiple dimensions of our experiences such as visual, embodied and sensory experiences cannot always be easily expressed in words. Traditional qualitative methods may struggle to access these deep-rooted complex and emotional aspects. Tourism scholars have called for innovative methodologies to unravel layers of diverse meaning in phenomena. This article critically reflects on a visual tool called the ‘MeBox’. It was adopted in our study to explore senior travellers’ responses to loss following a major life event. The ‘MeBox’ method enabled participants to express embedded and tacit knowledge to reflect on their lived experiences. We critically review the ‘MeBox’ methodology, and provide practical learnings for scholars who may want to adopt this method as a means to understand lived experiences that are difficult to express in words.

Anthropological Description of a Modern Urban Wedding

The article applies K. Geertz scientific approach of ‘detailed description’ to a modern urban wedding. The work is based on materials of field research into the marriage practices among young Perm families. The research techniques included semi-formal interviews and case-studies of 26 persons (13 families) during the period 2016–2020. These qualitative methods were necessary to get information about an important life event: from the first meeting a future partner to the wedding ceremony. Such methods helped identify cultural bases for the bride and groom’s practices. The paper provides a detailed interpretation of only one case, consisting of several narrative sections. Every narrative is a personal view of the participant at the wedding ceremony. The narrative “wedding as a drama” shows a woman’s interpretation of the celebration. The bride’s story has some negative connotations. The bride expresses rejection of the wedding procedure and some of its attributes. The narrative “wedding as a holiday” represents the man’s view. The groom’s comments contain mostly positive connotations. His story highlights the status elements of the celebration. He stresses his family’s contribution to the wedding ceremony. Analyzing both narratives, an additional aspect of the topic was explored: “wedding as a parents’ project”. It shows the older generation’s role in the organization of the wedding. In addition, the paper describes some stories which are repeated in the narratives, including various forms of objectification, gender roles in the young family, and shifting of social roles.

Emotional Responding and Adversity

The experience of emotions is a ubiquitous human experience, as is the experience of adversity. In the aftermath of an adverse life event, a variety of emotional experiences can occur. This chapter reviews the relationship between emotional responding and adversity within the science of emotion and resilience. Current literature on possible emotional responses to adversity are reviewed, including literature on both resilience and psychopathology. Multiple trajectories following the experience of various types of potentially traumatic events are outlined, including predictors for each of these trajectories. In addition, forms of psychopathology in emotional responding after adversity are discussed, including posttraumatic stress disorder, prolonged grief disorder, adjustment disorders, and other mental health conditions. Information regarding risk and resilience factors for each disorder are discussed, and evidence regarding treatment is briefly summarized.

Politics and Parenting

This chapter assesses how parenthood may functionally influence political attitudes. Becoming a parent is a keystone life event that has numerous psychological and physiological implications. There are several theoretical reasons to predict a functional relationship between parenthood (as well as individual differences in parenting motivation) and socially conservative attitudes, primarily related to an increased sensitivity to threat and a reduced interest in short-term mating. Moreover, initial work has found correlational, mediational, and experimental support for a functional and causal relationship between parenting and increased social conservatism and out-group prejudice. However, many unanswered questions remain, as do multiple fruitful avenues for future research.