A probabilistic approach to assess the computational uncertainty of ultimate strength of hull girders

This paper presents the prediction of residual ultimate strength of a very large crude oil carrier considering damage extents due to collision and grounding accidents. In order to determine extents of damage, two types of probabilistic approaches are employed: deterministic approach based on regulations based on ABS [1], DNV [2], and MARPOL [3] and probabilistic approach based on IMO probability density functions (PDFs) (IMO guidelines [4]). Hull girder ultimate strength is calculated using Smith method which is dependent on how much average compressive strength of stiffened panel is accurate. For this reason, this paper uses two different methods to predict average compressive strength of stiffened panel composing hull girder section: CSR formulas and nonlinear FEA. Calculated average compressive strength curves using CSR formulas (IACS [5, 6]) and nonlinear FEA are imported by an in-house software UMADS. Residual ultimate moment capacities are presented for various heeling angles from 0° (sagging) to 180° (hogging) by 15° increments considering possible flooding scenarios. Three regulations and IMO guidelines yield minimum of reduction ratios of hull girder moment capacity (minimum of damage indices) approximately at heeling angles 90° (angle of horizontal moment) and 180° (angle of hogging moment), respectively, because damage area is located farthest from neutral axis.

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Prediction of the Ultimate Strength of Composite Laminates under in-Plane Loading Using a Probabilistic Approach

Polymers and Polymer Composites ◽

10.1177/096739110100900505 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 9 (5) ◽

pp. 339-343 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Tae Jin Kang ◽

Young Jun Cho ◽

Jae Ryoun Youn ◽

K. Chung ◽

Kyung Woo Lee

Keyword(s):

Ultimate Strength ◽

Composite Laminates ◽

Probabilistic Approach ◽

Numerical Approach ◽

Strength Distribution ◽

Distribution Functions ◽

Plane Shear ◽

Wide Scatter ◽

Two Parameter ◽

Basic Strength

A numerical approach to predicting the ultimate strength of composite laminates is presented. In order to take into account the wide scatter in ply strengths, the basic strength distribution functions for the longitudinal, transverse and in-plane shear strengths were obtained using a two-parameter Weibull distribution. These functions, in conjunction with the Tsai-Hill failure criterion, were then used to predict the ultimate strength of the composites. Reasonable agreement was obtained between the predicted and experimental results, not only in respect of the ultimate strength, but also in relation to the stress-strain curves for the various composites.

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Efficient Method Based on Optimization and Simulation for the Probabilistic Strength Computation of the Ship Hull

Journal of Ship Research ◽

10.5957/jsr.2010.54.4.244 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 54 (04) ◽

pp. 244-256

Author(s):

Nader M. Okasha ◽

Dan M. Frangopol

Keyword(s):

Ultimate Strength ◽

Failure Modes ◽

Search Algorithm ◽

Probabilistic Approach ◽

Constitutive Models ◽

Latin Hypercube Sampling ◽

Ship Hull ◽

Computational Time ◽

Optimization Search

The accurate computation of the strength of a ship hull is vital for ensuring its reliability. Taking into account the uncertainties in the material properties and fabrication details requires a probabilistic approach for the determination of the strength of the ship hull. This study proposes an efficient approach for the determination of the probabilistic strength of the ship hull. First, a novel deterministic method for the fast and accurate calculation of the strength of the ship hull is presented. In this method, stresses in the hull section are determined using the constitutive models of the stiffened panels. These models take into account the various possible failure modes and initial imperfections. The ultimate strength is found by an optimization search algorithm. The method is shown to be as accurate as the rigorous incremental curvature method but with significantly less computational time. The method is then applied with a Latin-hypercube sampling simulation, and the output sample is tested against several potential distributions. The best-fit probability distribution of the ultimate strength of the ship hull is provided.

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A probabilistic approach for a T-stub ultimate strength assessment using response-surface approximation

Periodica Polytechnica Civil Engineering ◽

10.3311/pp.ci.2008-1.02 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 52 (1) ◽

pp. 15 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

František Kurčik ◽

Abdelhamid Boucha\"ir ◽

Josef Vičan

Keyword(s):

Response Surface ◽

Ultimate Strength ◽

Probabilistic Approach ◽

Response Surface Approximation ◽

Surface Approximation ◽

Strength Assessment

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A Probabilistic Approach to Account for Temperature Impact on Flexible Pavement Stiffness

Airfield and Highway Pavements ◽

10.1061/41005(329)5 ◽

2008 ◽

Author(s):

Sameh Zaghloul ◽

Nicholas Vitillo ◽

T. Joseph Holland

Keyword(s):

Probabilistic Approach ◽

Flexible Pavement ◽

Temperature Impact

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CARBONATION INDUCED CORROSION ANALYSIS OF REINFORCED CONCRETE STRUCTURES BASED ON FULL PROBABILISTIC APPROACH – AN INDONESIAN CASE STUDY

Malaysian Journal of Sustainable Environment ◽

10.24191/myse.v4i1.5612 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 165

Author(s):

Herry Prabowo ◽

Mochamad Hilmy

Keyword(s):

Service Life ◽

Probabilistic Approach ◽

Concrete Structures ◽

Weather Condition ◽

Analysis Data ◽

National Standard ◽

Concrete Carbonation ◽

Durability Design ◽

Starting Point ◽

Real Performance

The assessment of the service life of concrete structures using the durability design approach is widely accepted nowadays. It is really encouraged that a simulation model can resemble the real performance of concrete during the service life. This paper investigates the concrete carbonation through probabilistic analysis. Data regarding Indonesian construction practice were taken from Indonesian National Standard (SNI). Meanwhile, data related to Indonesian weather condition for instance humidity and temperature are taken from local Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency from 2004 until 2016. Hopefully the results can be a starting point for durability of concrete research in Indonesia.

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Prediction of Solutions of the Duffing System with Tuned Mass Damper

Mechanics and Mechanical Engineering ◽

10.2478/mme-2018-0078 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 22 (4) ◽

pp. 983-990

Author(s):

Konrad Mnich

Keyword(s):

Dynamical System ◽

Duffing Oscillator ◽

Probabilistic Approach ◽

Nonlinear Dynamical System ◽

Tuned Mass Damper ◽

Nonlinear Dynamical ◽

Duffing System ◽

Mass Damper ◽

Basin Stability ◽

Stability Concept

AbstractIn this work we analyze the behavior of a nonlinear dynamical system using a probabilistic approach. We focus on the coexistence of solutions and we check how the changes in the parameters of excitation influence the dynamics of the system. For the demonstration we use the Duffing oscillator with the tuned mass absorber. We mention the numerous attractors present in such a system and describe how they were found with the method based on the basin stability concept.

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