Time-varying impacts of demand and supply oil shocks on correlations between crude oil prices and stock markets indices

2017 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. 1011-1020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raquel Nadal ◽  
Alexandre Szklo ◽  
André Lucena
2019 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 136-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mousa Tawfeeq ◽  
Alan R. Collins ◽  
Levan Elbakidze ◽  
Gulnara Zaynutdinova

Kybernetes ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
pp. 1242-1261 ◽  
Author(s):  
Can Zhong Yao ◽  
Peng Cheng Kuang ◽  
Ji Nan Lin

Purpose The purpose of this study is to reveal the lead–lag structure between international crude oil price and stock markets. Design/methodology/approach The methods used for this study are as follows: empirical mode decomposition; shift-window-based Pearson coefficient and thermal causal path method. Findings The fluctuation characteristic of Chinese stock market before 2010 is very similar to international crude oil prices. After 2010, their fluctuation patterns are significantly different from each other. The two stock markets significantly led international crude oil prices, revealing varying lead–lag orders among stock markets. During 2000 and 2004, the stock markets significantly led international crude oil prices but they are less distinct from the lead–lag orders. After 2004, the effects changed so that the leading effect of Shanghai composite index remains no longer significant, and after 2012, S&P index just significantly lagged behind the international crude oil prices. Originality/value China and the US stock markets develop different pattens to handle the crude oil prices fluctuation after finance crisis in 1998.


2020 ◽  
Vol 184 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 49-57
Author(s):  
Mariusz Hamulczuk ◽  
◽  
Oksana Makarchuk ◽  

Corn belongs to the most important feed and industrial grains in the world being utilized for bioethanol production. Ukraine does not produce biofuels and does not pursue an active renewable energy policy. However, due to significant share of exports, corn prices in Ukraine can be shaped under the influence of biofuel policies pursued by developed countries, as well as under the influence of world energy markets. Therefore, the aim of the paper is to investigate the mechanisms linking Ukrainian export corn prices with Brent oil prices, as well as to quantitatively assess the nature of this relationship. We were especially interested in possible time-varying relationship between the prices. The price analysis was carried out on the basis of monthly data for the period 2001-2020 with the use of rolling correlation technique and rolling causality tests. The results of this research indicate on time-varying co-movements of Ukrainian corn and Brent crude oil prices. The strongest positive correlations and significant bidirectional causality were observed in 2007-2011. However, in most of sub-periods there were no significant relationships between these prices. Among factors strengthening the price linkages are the low corn-oil price ratios, dynamic increase of corn utilized for ethanol production and depletion of the world corn stocks. The conducted analysis confirmed that changes in biofuel demand in other countries can affect Ukrainian corn market due to horizontal integration of grain markets worldwide. Biofuel policy reforms in the EU aiming at decreasing mandatory blending of conventional biofuels in favor of advanced biofuels can lead to decrease in demand for corn in Ukraine after 2021, leading, in turn, to further weakening of linkage between corn and crude oil prices.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 516-534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue-Jun Zhang ◽  
Yao-Bin Wu

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the dynamic influence of WTI crude oil returns on the stock returns of China’s traditional energy sectors, including oil and gas exploitation, coal mining and processing, petroleum processing and coking, electricity, heat production and supply and mining services.Design/methodology/approachHong’s information spill-over test and the DP Granger causality test are applied to investigate the relationship between the two markets. Moreover, a rolling window is introduced into the above two tests to capture time-varying characteristics of the influence of WTI crude oil returns.FindingsThe empirical results indicate that, first, there exists significant bidirectional linear causality between WTI crude oil returns and China’s traditional energy sectoral stock returns, but the nonlinear causality appears weaker. Second, the influence of WTI crude oil returns on traditional energy sectoral stock returns has time-varying characteristics and industry heterogeneity both in the linear and nonlinear cases. Finally, the decline of WTI crude oil prices may strengthen its linear influence on the stock returns of traditional energy sectors, while the excessive rise of market values in traditional energy sectors may weaken the linear and nonlinear influence of WTI on them.Originality/valueThe general nexus between international crude oil market and China’s traditional energy stock market is explored both in the linear and nonlinear perspectives. In particular, the dynamic linear and nonlinear influence of WTI crude oil returns on China’s traditional energy sectoral stock returns and its industry heterogeneity are analysed in detail.


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