The role of transition regime models for corn prices forecasting

Given the relevance of corn for food and fuel industries, analysts and scholars are constantly comparing the forecasting accuracy of econometric models. These exercises test not only for the use of new approaches and methods, but also for the addition of fundamental variables linked to the corn market. This paper compares the accuracy of different usual models in financial macro-econometric literature for the period between 1995 and 2017. The main contribution lies in the use of transition regime models, which accommodate structural breaks and perform better for corn price forecasting. The results point out that the best models as those which consider not only the corn market structure, or macroeconomic and financial fundamentals, but also the non-linear trend and transition regimes, such as threshold autoregressive models.

Prediction of Corn and Sugar Prices Using Machine Learning, Econometrics, and Ensemble Models

This paper explores the use of several state-of-the-art machine learning models for predicting the daily prices of corn and sugar in Brazil in relation to the use of traditional econometrics models. The following models were implemented and compared: ARIMA, SARIMA, support vector regression (SVR), AdaBoost, and long short-term memory networks (LSTM). It was observed that, even though the prices time series for both products differ considerably, the models that presented the best results were obtained by: SVR, an ensemble of the SVR and LSTM models, an ensemble of the AdaBoost and SVR models, and an ensemble of the AdaBoost and LSTM models. The econometrics models presented the worst results for both products for all metrics considered. All models presented better results for predicting corn prices in relation to the sugar prices, which can be related mainly to its lower variation during the training and test sets. The methodology used can be implemented for other products.

Study on the Volatility Relationship between the Price of China's Live-hogs Industrial Chain and CPI

This paper uses the SAVR model to study the dynamic relationship between monthly corn prices, live hog prices, pork prices, and CPI volatility from January 2011 to August 2021. It is found that: 1. live-hog prices is the cause of pork price fluctuation, and live hogs and pork prices is the cause of CPI change. 2. live hog prices has short-term positive brunt on CPI, and pork prices has short-term positive and negative impact on CPI. 3. pork prices change is mainly caused by live hog price and its own change, and CPI change is mainly caused by spontaneous factors, live hog prices and pork prices change. Based on the above research, relevant policy recommendations to smooth out the fluctuation of pork prices are proposed.

Proportions of Concentrate and Corn Silage Rehydrated Ground Grain at Different Storage Times for Better Use of Starch by Lambs

The objective of this study was to evaluate the nutritional and bioeconomic potential of corn silage, rehydrated ground grain corn silage (RCGS), at different storage times associated with proportions of concentrates for better starch utilization by sheep. Forty Dorper-Santa Inês crossbred sheep were used, with an average body weight of 24 kg ± 3.9 kg, and an average age of 60 days. The sheep were confined for 63 days and distributed entirely at random with eight sets of repetitions and five experimental diets: Diet 1: ground corn dry; Diet 2: proportion of 850 g / kg of concentrate + rehydrated ground grain corn silage (RCGS) stored for 45 days; Diet 3: proportion of 650 g / kg of concentrate + RCGS stored for 90 days; Diet 4: RCGS stored for 45 days + 650 g/kg concentrate; Diet 5: RCGS stocked with 90 + 850 g/kg concentrate. As roughage, silage corn whole plant. Starch intake was higher (P<0.05) with the dry ground corn diet, however, digestibility was lower (P<0.05) for most nutrients compared to the RCGS diet. A smaller amount of starch was found in the feces of animals that received the RCGS diet. RCGS stored for 45 days and the diet with 650 g/kg of concentrate generates greater net income, increases nutrient intake, it is an alternative during the fluctuation of corn prices.

Strategies for sustainable corn production: a case of South Lampung District, Lampung Province, Indonesia

Demand for corn has been increasing from time to time. However, efforts to increase its production face multidimensional challenges and problems. This study aims to assess sustainability status, analyze leverage and prospective factors, and formulate follow-up strategies for sustainable corn production. Data used primarily were data collected through online focus group discussions and interviews with various related agencies and key informants at provincial and district levels. This study was conducted between May and October 2020 in South Lampung District. Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) and Matrix of Cross Impact Multiplications Applied to Classification (MICMAC) were used to assess the sustainability status and analyze leverage and prospective factors. Then, the Multicriteria Policy (MULTIPOL) was used to formulate the follow-up strategies. The results show that the corn production in South Lampung District is classified as less sustainable, with a sustainability index of 49.30. The sustainability of corn production is influenced by ten leverage attributes, four of which are prospective factors, namely corn prices at the farmer level, the number of water pumps, the use of natural pesticides and fertilizers, and the number of corn shellers. The strategies for sustainable corn production could be carried out by by applying reference purchase prices effectively, strengthening farmer partnerships with the feed industry, supporting environmentally friendly corn farming, and optimization and effective use of pre-harvest and post-harvest machinery. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of various assistance and policies implemented at this time to improve the implementation of programs/policies in the future.

Structural Break and Causal Analyses of U.S. Corn Use for Ethanol and Other Corn Market Variables

The causal basis for many of the relationships in models used to estimate the indirect effects of U.S. biofuels on global agricultural markets has not been adequately established. This paper addresses this gap by examining causal interactions among corn market variables through which the indirect effects of U.S. corn use for ethanol would be transmitted. Specifically, structural break and causal analyses of U.S. corn supply, uses, trade, and price are performed using quarterly data for marketing years 1986 to 2017. The structural break analysis identifies three breaks in corn use for ethanol that reflect the policy-driven evolution of U.S. corn ethanol production and other market factors. The causality analysis finds that U.S. corn use for ethanol is not a driver of the corn price and net corn exports. Changes in corn supply and domestic corn use are found to be the key factors in accommodating the large increase in corn use for ethanol between 2003 and 2010. These results mean that common assumptions linking U.S. corn ethanol production to large reductions in corn availability and exports, and higher global corn prices merit reconsideration.

45 Effect of Increasing Corn Silage Inclusion in Finishing Diets with or Without Tylosin on Performance and Liver Abscesses

Elevating corn silage inclusion in finishing diets has been investigated and suggests feeding more silage in farming and feeding operations improves profitability, despite decreased gain (ADG) and feed efficiency (G:F). Feeding more silage may decrease liver abscesses and the need for antibiotic control of abscesses. A finishing study was conducted to assess the impact of silage inclusion in finishing diets to reduce the incidence of liver abscesses in beef cattle. A total of 640 (BW = 334 ± 25 kg) steers were utilized in a 2 × 2 factorial treatment design with two levels of corn silage (15 and 45%, diet DM), with or without tylosin for control of abscesses. This study utilized 32 pens of cattle with 20 steers per pen and 8 pens per treatment. There was an interaction for liver abscesses (P = 0.05) and a tendency for an interaction for performance (P = 0.10) between silage and tylosin inclusion but not for carcass traits (P ≥ 0.20). Cattle fed 15% corn silage had the greatest incidence of liver abscesses (34.5%) compared to other treatments (P = 0.05), and abscess rate was decreased to 19% if tylosin was fed. Feeding 45% silage was also effective at lowering liver abscess rates which were 12.4% regardless of whether an antibiotic was fed. Feeding corn silage at 45% of diet DM was as effective as feeding an antibiotic to cattle on 85% concentrate diets. Feeding corn silage at greater inclusions decreased ADG (P ≤ 0.01) but increased final body weight when fed to an equal fatness. However, feeding corn silage at 45% was more economical compared to feeding 15% corn silage, especially at higher corn prices, provided shrink is well managed. Feeding elevated concentrations of corn silage may be an economically viable method to control liver abscesses without antibiotic use.

UPAYA MEMPERBAIKI EKONOMI BERAS DI PROVINSI NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR ANALISIS DATA SEKUNDER TAHUN 2003-2017)

The aim of this research were to review the state of rice industry over the past 15 years (2003-2017) based on the demand and supply situation in East Nusa Tenggara. The development of the price of rice, the factors that influence the demand and supply, and determine the policy impact of rice demand and supply in East Nusa Tenggara Province. This research uses the econometric model, that is a simultant structural equation,which was indentified by the order condition and it was approaches using Two Stage Least Square (2SLS). The data used in this research was the time series of secondary data during 15 years period from 2003-2017 that was provided by Central Startics Office, the National Logistics Authority, the NTT Agricultural Bureau and other publications related to this investigation. The analysis showed that the amount of rice production was really depended on harvest area, rice consumption, rice supply and rice production in the previous year. The retail price of rice was responded to the price of corn and the demand for rice in the long term, while in the short term it only responded to the price of corn. The amount of rice consumption responded to rice production, rice prices and rice demand. Rice imports reacted to rice production, rice prices, corn prices and rice consumption in the long run. Based on the results of the research, it was suggested that the area of irrigation needs to be extended,in each region of East Nusa tenggara Province, particularly technical irrigation in order to increase the rice production, and it es neededto do diversification programs in order to reduce dependency rice. The weakness of this research was it used the inpure simultan model.

Time-varying relationship between Ukrainian corn and world crude oil prices

Corn belongs to the most important feed and industrial grains in the world being utilized for bioethanol production. Ukraine does not produce biofuels and does not pursue an active renewable energy policy. However, due to significant share of exports, corn prices in Ukraine can be shaped under the influence of biofuel policies pursued by developed countries, as well as under the influence of world energy markets. Therefore, the aim of the paper is to investigate the mechanisms linking Ukrainian export corn prices with Brent oil prices, as well as to quantitatively assess the nature of this relationship. We were especially interested in possible time-varying relationship between the prices. The price analysis was carried out on the basis of monthly data for the period 2001-2020 with the use of rolling correlation technique and rolling causality tests. The results of this research indicate on time-varying co-movements of Ukrainian corn and Brent crude oil prices. The strongest positive correlations and significant bidirectional causality were observed in 2007-2011. However, in most of sub-periods there were no significant relationships between these prices. Among factors strengthening the price linkages are the low corn-oil price ratios, dynamic increase of corn utilized for ethanol production and depletion of the world corn stocks. The conducted analysis confirmed that changes in biofuel demand in other countries can affect Ukrainian corn market due to horizontal integration of grain markets worldwide. Biofuel policy reforms in the EU aiming at decreasing mandatory blending of conventional biofuels in favor of advanced biofuels can lead to decrease in demand for corn in Ukraine after 2021, leading, in turn, to further weakening of linkage between corn and crude oil prices.

Linking economic and social factors to peak flows in an agricultural watershed using socio-hydrologic modeling

Hydrologic modeling studies most often represent humans through predefined actions and fail to account for human responses under changing hydrologic conditions. By treating both human and hydrologic systems as co-evolving, we build a socio-hydrological model that combines an agent-based model (ABM) with a semi-distributed hydrologic model. The curve number method is used to clearly illustrate the impacts of land cover changes resulting from decisions made by two different agent types. Aiming to reduce flooding, a city agent pays farmer agents to convert land into conservation. Farmer agents decide how to allocate land between conservation and production based on factors related to profits, past land use, and willingness. The model is implemented for a watershed representative of the mixed agricultural/small urban area land use found in Iowa, USA. In this preliminary study, we simulate scenarios of crop yields, crop prices, and conservation subsidies along with varied farmer parameters that illustrate the effects of human system variables on peak discharges. High corn prices lead to a decrease in conservation land from historical levels; consequently, mean peak discharge increases by 6 %, creating greater potential for downstream flooding within the watershed. However, when corn prices are low and the watershed is characterized by a conservation-minded farmer population, mean peak discharge is reduced by 3 %. Overall, changes in mean peak discharge, which is representative of farmer land use decisions, are most sensitive to changes in crop prices as opposed to yields or conservation subsidies.