2020s scenario analysis of nutrient load in the Mekong River Basin using a distributed hydrological model

2009 ◽  
Vol 407 (20) ◽  
pp. 5356-5366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chihiro Yoshimura ◽  
Maichun Zhou ◽  
Anthony S. Kiem ◽  
Kazuhiko Fukami ◽  
Hapuarachchi H.A. Prasantha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Nutrient Load ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Mekong River Basin

scholarly journals Assessing the Uncertainties of Four Precipitation Products for Swat Modeling in Mekong River Basin

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiongpeng Tang ◽  
Jianyun Zhang ◽  
Chao Gao ◽  
Gebdang Ruben ◽  
Guoqing Wang
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Parameter Uncertainties ◽  
Mekong River Basin ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Better Than

Using hydrological simulation to evaluate the accuracy of satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation products always suffer from a large uncertainty. This study evaluates four widely used global precipitation products with high spatial and temporal resolutions [i.e., AgMERRA (AgMIP modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications), MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation), PERSIANN-CDR (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record), and TMPA (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 Version7)] against gauge observations with six statistical metrics over Mekong River Basin (MRB). Furthermore, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a widely used semi-distributed hydrological model, is calibrated using different precipitation inputs. Both model performance and uncertainties of parameters and prediction have been quantified. The following findings were obtained: (1) The MSWEP and TMPA precipitation products have good accuracy with higher CC, POD, and lower ME and RMSE, and the AgMERRA precipitation estimates perform better than PERSIANN-CDR in this rank; and (2) out of the six different climate regions of MRB, all six metrics are worse than that in the whole MRB. The AgMERRA can better reproduce the occurrence and contributions at different precipitation densities, and the MSWEP has the best performance in Cwb, Cwa, Aw, and Am regions that belong to the low latitudes. (3) Daily streamflow predictions obtained using MSWEP precipitation estimates are better than those simulated by other three products in term of both the model performance and parameter uncertainties; and (4) although MSWEP better captures the precipitation at different intensities in different climatic regions, the performance can still be improved, especially in the regions with higher altitude.

scholarly journals Socio-hydrologic modeling of the dynamics of cooperation in the transboundary Lancang–Mekong River

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 1883-1903
Author(s):  
You Lu ◽  
Fuqiang Tian ◽  
Liying Guo ◽  
Iolanda Borzì ◽  
Rupesh Patil ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Reservoir Operations ◽  
Mekong River Basin ◽  
The Past ◽  
Transboundary River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Variability ◽  
New Framework

Abstract. The transboundary Lancang–Mekong River basin has experienced dynamics of cooperation over the past several decades, which is a common emergent response in transboundary coupled human–water systems. Downstream countries rely on the Mekong River for fisheries, agriculture, navigation and ecological services, while upstream countries have been constructing dams to generate hydropower. The dam construction and operation in upstream countries have changed the seasonality of streamflow in downstream countries, affecting their economic benefits. More recently, cooperation between upstream and downstream countries has been enhanced throughout the river basin. In this study, we introduce a quantitative socio-hydrological model to simulate hydrological processes, reservoir operations, economic benefits, policy feedbacks and therefore dynamics of cooperation within the Lancang–Mekong River basin. The model reproduces the observed dynamics of cooperation in the basin revealed by sentiment analysis of news articles. Hydrological variability such as droughts and human activities associated with reservoir operations affect dynamics of cooperation between the riparian countries, with importance attached to indirect political benefits of upstream playing an important role in the enhancement of cooperation. In this way, our study generated understanding of emergent cooperation dynamics in this transboundary river basin, and the socio-hydrological model used here provides a useful new framework to investigate and improve transboundary water management elsewhere.

scholarly journals Socio-Hydrologic Modeling of the Dynamics of Cooperation in the Transboundary Lancang-Mekong River

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
You Lu ◽  
Fuqiang Tian ◽  
Liying Guo ◽  
Iolanda Borzi ◽  
Rupesh Patil ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Reservoir Operations ◽  
Mekong River Basin ◽  
The Past ◽  
Transboundary River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Variability ◽  
New Framework

Abstract. The transboundary Lancang-Mekong River Basin has experienced dynamics of cooperation over the past several decades, which is a common emergent response in transboundary human-water systems. Downstream countries rely on Mekong River for fisheries, agriculture, etc., while upstream countries have been constructing dams to generate hydropower. The dam construction and operation in upstream countries have changed the seasonality of streamflow in downstream countries, affecting their economic benefits. More recently, cooperation between upstream and downstream countries has been enhanced throughout the river basin. In this study, we introduce a quantitative socio-hydrological model to simulate hydrological processes, reservoir operations, economic benefits, policy feedbacks and therefore dynamics of cooperation within the Lancang-Mekong River basin. The model reproduces the observed dynamics of cooperation in the basin revealed by sentiment analysis of news articles. Hydrological variability such as droughts and human activities associated with reservoir operations affect dynamics of cooperation between the riparian countries, with importance attached to indirect political benefits of upstream playing an important role in the enhancement of cooperation. In this way, our study generated understanding of emergent cooperation dynamics in this transboundary river basin, and the socio-hydrological model used here provides a useful new framework to investigate and improve transboundary water management elsewhere.

scholarly journals Uncertainty in climate change projections of discharge for the Mekong River Basin

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 5991-6024 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. G. Kingston ◽  
J. R. Thompson ◽  
G. Kite
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
Mekong River Basin ◽  
Snow Storage

Abstract. The Mekong River Basin comprises a key regional resource in Southeast Asia for sectors that include agriculture, fisheries and electricity production. Here we explore the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater resources within the river basin. We quantify uncertainty in these projections associated with GCM structure and climate sensitivity, as well as from hydrological model parameter specification. This is achieved by running pattern-scaled GCM output through a semi-distributed hydrological model (SLURP) of the basin. These pattern-scaled GCM outputs allow investigation of specific thresholds of global climate change including the postulated 2 ºC threshold of "dangerous" climate change as simulated using outputs from seven different GCMs. Detailed analysis of results based on HadCM3 climate scenarios reveals a relatively small but non-linear response of annual river discharge to increasing global mean temperature, ranging from a 5.4% decrease to 4.5% increase. Intra-annual (monthly) changes in river discharge are greater (from −16% to +55%, with greatest decreases in July and August, greatest increases in May and June) and result from complex and contrasting intra-basin changes in precipitation, evaporation and snow storage/melt. Whilst overall results are highly GCM dependent (in both direction and magnitude), this uncertainty is primarily driven by differences in GCM projections of future precipitation. In contrast, there is strong consistency between GCMs in terms of both increased potential evapotranspiration and a shift to an earlier and less substantial snowmelt season. Indeed, in the upper Mekong (Lancang sub-basin), the temperature-related signal in discharge is strong enough to overwhelm the precipitation-related uncertainty in the direction of change in discharge, with scenarios from all GCMs leading to increased river flow from April–June, and decreased flow from July–August.

scholarly journals Uncertainty in climate change projections of discharge for the Mekong River Basin

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 1459-1471 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. G. Kingston ◽  
J. R. Thompson ◽  
G. Kite
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Mekong River Basin ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Snow Storage ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. The Mekong River Basin is a key regional resource in Southeast Asia for sectors that include agriculture, fisheries and electricity production. Here we explore the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater resources within the river basin. We quantify uncertainty in these projections associated with GCM structure and climate sensitivity, as well as from hydrological model parameter specification. This is achieved by running pattern-scaled GCM scenarios through a semi-distributed hydrological model (SLURP) of the basin. Pattern-scaling allows investigation of specific thresholds of global climate change including the postulated 2 °C threshold of "dangerous" climate change. Impacts of a 2 °C rise in global mean temperature are investigated using seven different GCMs, providing an implicit analysis of uncertainty associated with GCM structure. Analysis of progressive changes in global mean temperature from 0.5 to 6 °C above the 1961–1990 baseline (using the HadCM3 GCM) reveals a relatively small but non-linear response of annual river discharge to increasing global mean temperature, ranging from a 5.4 % decrease to 4.5 % increase. Changes in mean monthly river discharge are greater (from −16 % to +55 %, with greatest decreases in July and August, greatest increases in May and June) and result from complex and contrasting intra-basin changes in precipitation, evaporation and snow storage/melt. Whilst overall results are highly GCM dependent (in both direction and magnitude), this uncertainty is primarily driven by differences in GCM projections of future precipitation. In contrast, there is strong consistency between GCMs in terms of both increased potential evapotranspiration and a shift to an earlier and less substantial snowmelt season. Indeed, in the upper Mekong (Lancang sub-basin), the temperature-related signal in discharge is strong enough to overwhelm the precipitation-related uncertainty in the direction of change in discharge, with scenarios from all GCMs leading to increased river flow from April–June and decreased flow from July–August.

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