Is India on the right pathway to reduce CO2 emissions? Decomposing an enlarged Kaya identity using the LMDI method for the period 1990–2016

ABSTRACTThis study investigates regularities in the production of GDP and CO2 emissions for 84 countries between 1980-2014. The empirical strategy is derived from an ecological-economic framework in which both outputs are produced employing capital, energy and labor. Moreover, we propose an expanded version of the Kaya identity, which creates a link between the growth rate of CO2 emissions and capital accumulation to evaluate the distribution of abatement efforts under the Paris Agreement. By using a new dataset, we found evidence of relative decoupling in developing countries and absolute decoupling in some developed countries. Our findings show that the individual voluntary definition of the emission targets under the Agreement resulted in an unequal distribution of the abatement efforts among developing and developed countries. In the absence of higher energy or environment-saving technical changes, the required reductions in capital accumulation are sharper for developing than developed countries. ¿SE COMPARTEN LOS ESFUERZOS DEL ACUERDO DE PARÍS IGUALMENTE? REGULARIDADES DE PRODUCCIÓN DEL PIB Y CO2 RESUMEN Este trabajo investiga las regularidades en la producción del PIB y las emisiones de CO2 en 84 países entre 1980 y 2014. La estrategia empírica deriva de un marco ecológico-económico en el cual los dos bienes se producen utilizando capital, energía y trabajo. Proponemos una versión expandida de la identidad de Kaya que crea un vínculo entre la tasa de crecimiento de las emisiones de CO2 y la acumulación de capital para evaluar la distribución de los esfuerzos de abatimiento del Acuerdo de París. Mediante el uso de una nueva base de datos, encontramos un desacoplamiento relativo en los países en desarrollo y un desacoplamiento absoluto en algunos países desarrollados. Nuestros hallazgos muestran que la definición individual voluntaria de las metas de emisiones del Acuerdo resulta en una distribución desigual de los esfuerzos de abatimiento entre los países en desarrollo y desarrollados. En ausencia de un mayor cambio técnico ahorrador de energía o del ambiente, las reducciones requeridas en la acumulación de capital son más agudas para los países en desarrollo que para los desarrollados.

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Evaluating the Causal Relations between the Kaya Identity Index and ODIAC-Based Fossil Fuel CO2 Flux

Energies ◽

10.3390/en13226009 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (22) ◽

pp. 6009

Author(s):

YoungSeok Hwang ◽

Jung-Sup Um ◽

JunHwa Hwang ◽

Stephan Schlüter

Keyword(s):

Co2 Emissions ◽

Fossil Fuel ◽

Co2 Flux ◽

Causal Relationships ◽

Mediating Effects ◽

Multiple Mediation ◽

Open Source Data ◽

Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽

The Individual ◽

Kaya Identity

The Kaya identity is a powerful index displaying the influence of individual carbon dioxide (CO2) sources on CO2 emissions. The sources are disaggregated into representative factors such as population, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, energy intensity of the GDP, and carbon footprint of energy. However, the Kaya identity has limitations as it is merely an accounting equation and does not allow for an examination of the hidden causalities among the factors. Analyzing the causal relationships between the individual Kaya identity factors and their respective subcomponents is necessary to identify the real and relevant drivers of CO2 emissions. In this study we evaluated these causal relationships by conducting a parallel multiple mediation analysis, whereby we used the fossil fuel CO2 flux based on the Open-Source Data Inventory of Anthropogenic CO2 emissions (ODIAC). We found out that the indirect effects from the decomposed variables on the CO2 flux are significant. However, the Kaya identity factors show neither strong nor even significant mediating effects. This demonstrates that the influence individual Kaya identity factors have on CO2 directly emitted to the atmosphere is not primarily due to changes in their input factors, namely the decomposed variables.

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The influence of economic, technical, and social aspects on energy-associated CO2 emissions in Malaysia: An extended Kaya identity approach

Energy ◽

10.1016/j.energy.2019.05.168 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 181 ◽

pp. 468-493 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Kiew Ling Pui ◽

Jamal Othman

Keyword(s):

Co2 Emissions ◽

Social Aspects ◽

Kaya Identity

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Using LMDI method to analyze transport sector CO2 emissions in China

Energy ◽

10.1016/j.energy.2011.08.031 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 36 (10) ◽

pp. 5909-5915 ◽

Cited By ~ 177

Author(s):

W.W. Wang ◽

M. Zhang ◽

M. Zhou

Keyword(s):

Co2 Emissions ◽

Transport Sector ◽

Lmdi Method

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Decomposition of China’s CO2 emissions from agriculture utilizing an improved Kaya identity

Environmental Science and Pollution Research ◽

10.1007/s11356-014-3250-8 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 21 (22) ◽

pp. 13000-13006 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Wei Li ◽

Qingxiang Ou ◽

Yulu Chen

Keyword(s):

Co2 Emissions ◽

Kaya Identity

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Análise da expansão da geração elétrica fotovoltaica e emissões de dióxido de carbono

Revista Produção e Desenvolvimento ◽

10.32358/rpd.2017.v3.208 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 3 (1) ◽

pp. 12-25

Author(s):

Cássio Rangel Paulista ◽

Tatiane Stellet Machado ◽

Joao Jose de Assis Rangel

Keyword(s):

Co2 Emissions ◽

Large Scale ◽

International Energy Agency ◽

Low Carbon ◽

Energy Agency ◽

Photovoltaic Generation ◽

Renewable Energy Technologies ◽

Energy Technologies ◽

Levels Of Use ◽

Kaya Identity

This paper aims to analyze the photovoltaic electricity energy expansion and recent data about the behavior of the CO2 emissions in Brazil and other selected countries. Data were collected from different bases as International Energy Agency (Agência Internacional de Energia), Ministry of Energy and Mines (Ministério de Minas e Energia), Research Electric Company as well as other papers in the field. Kaya Identity was applied as basis in order to evaluate the CO2 emissions. As a result, it could be seen a clear domain of Germany and Italy in the photovoltaic generation sector, with high investments in the development and dissemination of that technology. Brazil presented an energetic matrix of low carbon but with a tendency to increase emissions per capita throughout the years. The effect of decoupling between the greenhouse gas emissions and the large-scale economic development was checked. It was realized that that phenomenon tends to intensify it since renewable energy technologies get higher levels of use.

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Using the LMDI Method to Analyze the Change in Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Turkish Sectors

10.20944/preprints202008.0407.v2 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Abdulkadir BEKTAŞ

Keyword(s):

Co2 Emissions ◽

Heat Production ◽

Economic Activity ◽

Energy Intensity ◽

Decomposition Analysis ◽

Manufacturing Industries ◽

Lmdi Method ◽

Gaseous Fuels ◽

Turkish Economy ◽

Determining Factors

In this study, CO2 emissions of the Turkish economy are decomposed for the 1998–2017 period for four sectors; agriculture, forestry and fishery, manufacturing industries and construction, public electricity and heat production, transport, and residential. The analyses are conducted for five fuel types; liquid, solid, gaseous fuels, biomass, and other fuels. In decomposition analysis, Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method is used. The analysis results point out that energy intensity is one of the determining factors behind the change in CO2 emissions, aside from economic activity. The fuel mix component, especially for the manufacturing industries and construction sector, lowers CO2 emissions during the crisis periods when the economic activity declines. Mainly, it is found that changes in total industrial activity and energy intensity are the primary factors determining the changes in CO2 emissions during the study period. Among GDP sectors, manufacturing industries and construction and public electricity and heat production are the two sectors that dominate the change in CO2 emissions. Additionally, the residential and transport sectors’ contributions have gained importance during recent years. Among the manufacturing industries and construction, the non-metallic minerals sector contributes to CO2 emissions, followed by the chemicals sector.

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Decomposition of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions in ASEAN Based on Kaya Identity

Indonesian Journal of Energy ◽

10.33116/ije.v4i2.122 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 101-114

Author(s):

Vivid Amalia Khusna ◽

Deni Kusumawardani

Keyword(s):

Co2 Emissions ◽

Economic Activity ◽

Energy Intensity ◽

Carbon Intensity ◽

Middle Income ◽

Middle Income Countries ◽

Brunei Darussalam ◽

Asean Countries ◽

Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽

Kaya Identity

ASEAN is a region with high carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, accompanied by an increase in population, gross domestic product (GDP) and energy consumption. Population, GDP, and energy consumption can be linked to CO2 emissions through an identity equation called the Rich Identity. This research is based on Kaya identity to describe CO2 emissions to calculate the impact of population, economic activity, energy intensity and carbon intensity on CO2 emissions in ASEAN and 8 ASEAN countries (i.e., Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar and Brunei Darussalam) from 1990 to 2017. The method used is the Logarithmic Mean Division Index (LMDI). The data used are from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the World Bank. Four effects measured and main findings showed that population, economic activity and carbon intensity factor increased by 293.02 MtCO2, 790.0 MtCO2, and 195.51 MtCO2, respectively. Meanwhile, energy intensity effect made ASEAN's CO2 emissions decrease by 283.13 MtCO2. Regarding contributions to the increase in CO2 emissions in all ASEAN countries, the population effect increases CO2 emissions in all countries in ASEAN and the economic activity effect is also the same, except in Brunei Darussalam which makes CO2 emissions in this country decreased by 1.07 MtCO2. Meanwhile, the effects of energy and carbon intensity are different. The effect of energy intensity causes CO2 emissions in lower-middle income countries to decrease, while in upper-middle and high-income countries, it increases carbon emissions. In contrast to the effect of carbon intensity, that actually makes CO2 emissions increase in lower-middle income countries and reduces carbon emissions in upper-middle and high-income countries.

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Energy foresight: Exploration of CO2 reduction policy scenario for Ecuador during 2016–2030

Energetika ◽

10.6001/energetika.v65i1.3975 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 65 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Gabriela Araujo ◽

Andrés Robalino-López ◽

Natalia Tapia

Keyword(s):

Co2 Emissions ◽

Energy Demand ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Driving Forces ◽

Early Stage ◽

Life Quality ◽

Industrial Sector ◽

Energy Matrix ◽

Alternative Scenario ◽

Kaya Identity

The energy sector is an important factor that influences life quality and economic prosperity. Differences in infrastructure, technology and even in culture of each country make it imperative to include their own characteristics into energy analyses, making it necessary to identify the different types of sources of CO2 emissions and their magnitudes. The aim of this paper is to present a foresight analysis of the productive and energy matrices dynamics in Ecuador for the period 2016–2030 and to propose public policy that contributes to sustainable development. In a first stage, the research has an explanatory character, referring to construction of a model, which uses an extended variation of the Kaya Identity where the volume of CO2 emissions may be examined quantifying contributions of productive sectors activity, sectorial energy intensity, energy matrix, and CO2 emission features. Subsequently, the research acquires a predictive-experimental nature, using exploratory scenarios. That allows linking historic and present events with hypothetical futures. In consequence, driving forces of the scenario can be explained and analysed using quantitative modelling based on the Kaya Identity and qualitative narratives. Within this study two scenarios were built. The Business as Usual scenario, without modifying the structure of productive and energy matrices, and the Alternative scenario that seeks to reduce the consumption of oil derivatives in land transport, which consumes 50% of the country’s energy demand. The Alternative scenario, which promotes the use of biofuels, projects to reduce the CO2 emissions from 45.58 to 43.41 Mt of CO2 equivalent for 2030. The policy on biofuels in Ecuador is at an early stage. So, biofuels offer important opportunities: i) diversification of the energy matrix, ii) contribution to energy security, iii) promotion of the growth of the industrial sector, and iv) substitution of fossil fuels and mitigation of the greenhouse gas effects.

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