PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to focus on the assembly quality of copier products, specifically, concentrating on the prediction of the operator‐induced assembly defect.Design/methodology/approachBased on the Shibata model, the design‐based assembly complexity is redesigned. And the Sony Standard Time is replaced by the Fuji Xerox Standard Time in the calculation of the process‐based assembly complexity. Furthermore, different correlation functions are attempted and comparatively studied in the regression analysis. Thereby, a new defect rate prediction model is proposed and validated with three copier assembly cases.FindingsThe new proposed model is much more accurate and stable in the human‐induced assembly defect prediction in copier production.Practical implicationsThe proposed model can be used to ensure the assembly quality by removing potential defects at the structure and process design stages. Meanwhile, with this model, the interactions between the engineers and designers can be more effective.Originality/valueThis paper presents a novel assembly defect rate prediction model for copier assembly quality management.