22 Statistical methods for reproductive risk assessment

Author(s):  
Sati Mazumdar ◽  
Yikang Xu ◽  
Donald R. Mattison ◽  
Nancy B. Sussman ◽  
Vincent C. Arena
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valery Dmitryevich Sharov ◽  
Vadim Vadimovich Vorobyov ◽  
Dmitry Alexandrovich Zatuchny

1995 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 837-862 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sati Mazumdar ◽  
Donald R. Mattison ◽  
C. V. Damaraju

Author(s):  
Sergiy Yemelyanenko ◽  
◽  
Andriy Ivanusa ◽  
Roman Yakovchuk ◽  
Andriy Kuzyk ◽  
...  

The complex research method is used in the work, which includes: analysis and generalization of scientific achievements in the field of fire safety, application and processing of statistical data; application as analytical methods of research by collecting, generalizing and analyzing the current normative documents of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and statistical methods of probability theory, geospatial, mathematical modeling, methods of system analysis. Research Object: The risk of death from fire in public buildings and structures. The purpose of the work is risk evaluation of death from fires in public buildings. Research methods. The complex method of researches is used in the work, which includes: analysis and application of statistical methods of data processing, verification of reliability of the obtained results, mathematical modeling and other analytical methods. The concept of the risk is described in the article and the main normative documents are outlined that treat them. The basic methods and methods of risk assessment for public buildings are analyzed. Fire risk assessment is the calculation of individual fire risk for residents, staff and visitors in a public building. The numerical expression of an individual fire risk is the frequency of exposure of hazardous fire factors to a person in a building or structure. The frequency of exposure to hazardous fire factors is determined for fire-hazardous situations, which are characterized by the greatest danger to the life and health of people in the building. The CFAST program simulated the occurrence of limit concentrations of hazardous factors during fires for two typical public buildings. It is also suggested how to evaluate the results on a specific color scale that allows you to create risk maps for visualization. The draft methodology proposes to consider the follow-up time of fire and rescue units when determining the evacuation time. The main methods and methodologies of risk assessment for buildings and public facilities have been analyzed. For two facilities, the risk of death from fire in buildings and facilities has been estimated. The results of evaluation have been suggested in a color scale, which allows creating maps to visualize the risks. The simulation of the limit concentrations of hazardous factors during the fires for two typical public facilities has been done in CFAST software. Mapping the risks of death from a fire in the appropriate group in the appropriate colors allows you to build a map of the risks of death from a fire and fire and rescue workers know the possible risks and dangers of the objects. The start time of the evacuation, in the absence of warning systems, is determined depending on the time the fire and rescue units follow to the fire site. The proposed calculation methodology and visualization tools allow the rescuer, who makes the decision, to comprehensively assess the situation during the design and to avoid the possible consequences of an emergency, which will increase the level of security.


1970 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamal P Budhathoki ◽  
OR Bajracharya ◽  
BK Pokharel

Glacier lakes are common phenomena in the Himalaya region of Nepal. Glacier lake outburst floods have repeatedly caused the death tolls and severe damage to downstream infrastructures. In Himalayas, a vital uncertainty about the glacier lake hazard potential still exists, thereby the effects of accelerating rates of glacier retreat and expansion of Glacier Lake could be the wake of recent global warming and resulting climatic changes. The paper, first describes the general different-level approach upon which the study is based. Then, in the methodological part, applicable remote sensing techniques, geographic information system (GIS) and statistical methods are presented. Observed data of lake area, volume, and depth having similar lake characteristics reported in the different literature are used to develop empirical equations by using statistical methods. The values of r2 (coefficient of determination) - obtained are very high (r2=0.939 for depth – area relationship and r2= 0.990 for volume – area relationship). The comparison of the empirical expression clearly indicated that there is more than 90% variation in the dependent variable, lake volume,as explained by the linear regressions in both cases. Area of Imja glacier lake for different years are determined from the available satellite imagery and volume of the Imja glacier lake are estimated using the expression: V = 0.094A1.453.developed from linear regression analysis of the observed data. Similarly, mean depth can be estimated by using the expression: D = 0.94A0.452. After the preparation of maps and data, a scheme of decision criteria for the evaluation of hazard potential of Imja glacier lake is established. A list of decision criteria is a documented set of factors that are used to examine and compare for evaluating the hazard potential of a glacier lake. The empirical scores are given in terms of hazard magnitude for hazard rating. Analysis of Imja glacier lake based on the empirical scoring system clearly indicated that GLOF risk of the possible outburst from Imja glacier lake is MODERATE. A systematic application of remote sensing based methods for glacier lake outburst flood risk assessment is applicable and thus recommended. Keywords: Glacier lake outburst; remote sensing; risk assessment; hazard potential; empirical parameters; climate change DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/jhm.v7i1.5618 JHM 2010; 7(1): 75-91


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