Probabilistic-Statistical Methods for Risk Assessment in Civil Aviation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valery Dmitryevich Sharov ◽  
Vadim Vadimovich Vorobyov ◽  
Dmitry Alexandrovich Zatuchny
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Civil Aviation

Stochastic Methods for Estimation and Problem Solving in Engineering

2018 ◽  
pp. 139-160
Author(s):  
Tetiana Shmelova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Situation ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Stochastic Methods ◽  
Navigation Systems ◽  
International Civil Aviation Organization ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Professional Activities

In this chapter, the author presents stochastic methods in aviation. The stochastic methods are presented as methods of decision making (DM) of operators of air navigation systems (ANS) in risk and uncertainly. The ANS is presented as a socio-technical system (STS). Analysis influences the factors of professional and non-professional activities on DM of STS's operators. The author made an analysis of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) documents on risk assessment. To determine the quantitative characteristics of risk levels, models for DM by the operator of the aviation system under risk and uncertainty have been developed. The author demonstrates some interesting advantages offered by the new methodology of DM in STS and forecasting the behavior of the operator in an emergency situation (ES) for using models of DM in risk and uncertainty.

scholarly journals An introduction to aviation cardiology

Heart ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 105 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. s3-s8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward D Nicol ◽  
Rienk Rienks ◽  
Gary Gray ◽  
Norbert J Guettler ◽  
Olivier Manen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
The Other ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Aviation Medicine ◽  
Military Aviation ◽  
Regulatory Bodies ◽  
Collaborative Working ◽  
European Society Of Cardiology

The management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has evolved significantly in the last 20 years; however, the last major publication to address a consensus on the management of CVD in aircrew was published in 1999, following the second European Society of Cardiology conference of aviation cardiology experts. This article outlines an introduction to aviation cardiology and focuses on the broad aviation medicine considerations that are required to manage aircrew appropriately and optimally (both pilots and non-pilot aviation professionals). This and the other articles in this series are born out of a 3 year collaborative working group between international military aviation cardiologists and aviation medicine specialists, many of whom also work with and advise civil aviation authorities, as part of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) led initiative to address the occupational ramifications of CVD in aircrew (HFM-251). This article describes the types of aircrew employed in the civil and military aviation profession in the 21st century; the types of aircraft and aviation environment that must be understood when managing aircrew with CVD; the regulatory bodies involved in aircrew licensing and the risk assessment processes that are used in aviation medicine to determine the suitability of aircrew to fly with medical (and specifically cardiovascular) disease; and the ethical, occupational and clinical tensions that exist when managing patients with CVD who are also professional aircrew.

22 Statistical methods for reproductive risk assessment

2000 ◽  
pp. 649-671
Author(s):  
Sati Mazumdar ◽  
Yikang Xu ◽  
Donald R. Mattison ◽  
Nancy B. Sussman ◽  
Vincent C. Arena
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Reproductive Risk

scholarly journals Assessing the Risks of Airport Airside through the Fuzzy Logic-Based Failure Modes, Effect, and Criticality Analysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheng-Min Feng ◽  
Chi-Chun Chung
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Aviation Accidents ◽  
Decision Factors ◽  
Modeling Process ◽  
Assessment Matrix ◽  
Criticality Analysis

To identify risk items, measure risk value objectively, and establish risk assessment matrix of airports is the major task of airport safety. This paper first extracts 14 risk items of airports from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) aviation accidents database and then applies Failure Modes, Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) to define the decision factors of probability, severity and detectability of airport risks. This paper also designs a questionnaire and applies fuzzy logic to discover the importance of decision factors, to find out the threshold value of Risk Assessment Matrix, and to prioritize the airport risks. This paper uses Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport as a case study to demonstrate the modeling process and analyze the results.

Operational issues and assessment of risk for light UAVs

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 119-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Guglieri ◽  
F. Quagliotti ◽  
G. Ristorto
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Aircraft Systems ◽  
Remotely Piloted Aircraft ◽  
Operational Issues

ENAC, the Italian Civil Aviation Authority, has published the regulation for remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) with a maximum take-off mass of less than 150 kg. The aim of this paper is the application of Italian regulatory prescriptions for risk assessment to a family of RPAS. The results of this analysis, performed in collaboration with ENAC, are compared with other available methods, providing a comprehensive insight for mission feasibility and operational implications in a set of realistic application cases. Practical solutions are proposed for risk mitigation of RPAS specialized operations.

scholarly journals STATISTICAL EVALUATION AND ANALYSIS OF MUTUAL INTERACTION OF COMPONENTS

Aviation ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 9-15
Author(s):  
Artūras Gališanskis ◽  
Vytautas Giniotis
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Numerical Evaluation ◽  
Statistical Evaluation ◽  
Technical System ◽  
Mutual Interaction ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Maintenance Costs ◽  
Interaction Of Components ◽  
Aircraft System

One of the most basic methods of reducing maintenance costs in civil aviation is discussed in this paper. This method, which is used by transport carriers, is a reliability programme. The parameters applied in this programme are described in case as they express the numerical evaluation of failure of aircraft components. Nevertheless, such evaluation permits to assess only the selected components. Other statistical methods must be used to assess the reliability of an entire technical system. For this purpose, a correlation and regression analyses are applied to analyse an entire aircraft system, and some results of this investigation are presented here.

scholarly journals FIRE RISKS OF PUBLIC BUILDINGS

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (444) ◽  
pp. 75-82
Author(s):  
Sergiy Yemelyanenko ◽  
◽  
Andriy Ivanusa ◽  
Roman Yakovchuk ◽  
Andriy Kuzyk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Analytical Methods ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Public Buildings ◽  
Normative Documents ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Public Facilities ◽  
Color Scale

The complex research method is used in the work, which includes: analysis and generalization of scientific achievements in the field of fire safety, application and processing of statistical data; application as analytical methods of research by collecting, generalizing and analyzing the current normative documents of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and statistical methods of probability theory, geospatial, mathematical modeling, methods of system analysis. Research Object: The risk of death from fire in public buildings and structures. The purpose of the work is risk evaluation of death from fires in public buildings. Research methods. The complex method of researches is used in the work, which includes: analysis and application of statistical methods of data processing, verification of reliability of the obtained results, mathematical modeling and other analytical methods. The concept of the risk is described in the article and the main normative documents are outlined that treat them. The basic methods and methods of risk assessment for public buildings are analyzed. Fire risk assessment is the calculation of individual fire risk for residents, staff and visitors in a public building. The numerical expression of an individual fire risk is the frequency of exposure of hazardous fire factors to a person in a building or structure. The frequency of exposure to hazardous fire factors is determined for fire-hazardous situations, which are characterized by the greatest danger to the life and health of people in the building. The CFAST program simulated the occurrence of limit concentrations of hazardous factors during fires for two typical public buildings. It is also suggested how to evaluate the results on a specific color scale that allows you to create risk maps for visualization. The draft methodology proposes to consider the follow-up time of fire and rescue units when determining the evacuation time. The main methods and methodologies of risk assessment for buildings and public facilities have been analyzed. For two facilities, the risk of death from fire in buildings and facilities has been estimated. The results of evaluation have been suggested in a color scale, which allows creating maps to visualize the risks. The simulation of the limit concentrations of hazardous factors during the fires for two typical public facilities has been done in CFAST software. Mapping the risks of death from a fire in the appropriate group in the appropriate colors allows you to build a map of the risks of death from a fire and fire and rescue workers know the possible risks and dangers of the objects. The start time of the evacuation, in the absence of warning systems, is determined depending on the time the fire and rescue units follow to the fire site. The proposed calculation methodology and visualization tools allow the rescuer, who makes the decision, to comprehensively assess the situation during the design and to avoid the possible consequences of an emergency, which will increase the level of security.

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