A new methodology for building local climate change scenarios: A case study of monthly temperature projections for Mexico City

This paper proposes a new methodology for generating climate change scenarios at the local scale based on multivariate time series models and restricted forecasting techniques. This methodology offers considerable advantages over the current statistical downscaling techniques such as: (i) it provides a better representation of climate at the local scale; (ii) it avoids the occurrence of spurious relationships between the large and local scale variables; (iii) it offers a more appropriate representation of variability in the downscaled scenarios; and (iv) it allows for compatibility assessment and combination of the information contained in both observed and simulated climate variables. Furthermore, this methodology is useful for integrating scenarios of local scale factors that affect local climate. As such, the convenience of different public policies regarding, for example, land use change or atmospheric pollution control can be evaluated in terms of their effects for amplifying or reducing climate change impacts.

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Investigating Future Urbanization’s Impact on Local Climate under Different Climate Change Scenarios in MEGA-urban Regions: A Case Study of the Pearl River Delta, China

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11070771 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (7) ◽

pp. 771

Author(s):

Pak Shing Yeung ◽

Jimmy Chi-Hung Fung ◽

Chao Ren ◽

Yong Xu ◽

Kangning Huang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Pearl River Delta ◽

Pearl River ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Local Climate ◽

The Pearl River Delta ◽

The Future ◽

The Pearl River

Urbanization is one of the most significant contributing factors to anthropogenic climate change. However, a lack of projected city land use data has posed significant challenges to factoring urbanization into climate change modeling. Thus, the results from current models may contain considerable errors in estimating future climate scenarios. The Pearl River Delta region was selected as a case study to provide insight into how large-scale urbanization and different climate change scenarios impact the local climate. This study adopts projected land use data from freely available satellite imagery and applies dynamic simulation land use results to the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The simulation periods cover the summer periods in 2010 and 2029–2031, the latter of which is averaged to represent the year 2030. The WRF simulation used the observed local climate conditions in 2010 to represent the current scenario and the projected local climate changes for 2030 as the future scenario. Under all three future climate change scenarios, the warming trend is prominent (around 1–2 °C increase), with a widespread reduction in wind speed in inland areas (1–2 ms−1). The vulnerability of human health to thermal stress was evaluated by adopting the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT). The results from the future scenarios suggest a high public health risk due to rising temperatures in the future. This study provides a methodology for a more comprehensive understanding of future urbanization and its impact on regional climate by using freely available satellite images and WRF simulation tools. The simulated temperature and WBGT results can serve local governments and stakeholders in city planning and the creation of action plans that will reduce the potential vulnerability of human health to excessive heat.

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Land Use Optimization for a Rapidly Urbanizing City with Regard to Local Climate Change: Shenzhen as a Case Study

Journal of Urban Planning and Development ◽

10.1061/(asce)up.1943-5444.0000200 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 141 (1) ◽

pp. 05014007 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Wenting Zhang ◽

Bo Huang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Local Climate ◽

Land Use Optimization ◽

Local Climate Change

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Preparing local climate change scenarios for the Netherlands using resampling of climate model output

Environmental Research Letters ◽

10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115008 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 9 (11) ◽

pp. 115008 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

G Lenderink ◽

B J J M van den Hurk ◽

A M G Klein Tank ◽

G J van Oldenborgh ◽

E van Meijgaard ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

The Netherlands ◽

Climate Model ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Model Output ◽

Local Climate ◽

Local Climate Change ◽

Climate Model Output

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An improvement of analog model strategy for more reliable local climate change scenarios

Theoretical and Applied Climatology ◽

10.1007/s00704-005-0133-4 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 82 (3-4) ◽

pp. 245-255 ◽

Cited By ~ 34

Author(s):

A. Imbert ◽

R. E. Benestad

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Analog Model ◽

Local Climate ◽

Local Climate Change

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LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON GRAPE PRODUCTIVITY AND PHENOLOGY

Scientific Works of North Caucasian Federal Scientific Center of Horticulture Viticulture Wine-making ◽

10.30679/2587-9847-2019-23-117-125 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 23 ◽

pp. 117-125 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

G.Yu. Aleinikova ◽

◽

V.S. Petrov ◽

V.V. Sokolova ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Local Climate ◽

Local Climate Change

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Heatwaves and Summer Urban Heat Islands: A Daily Cycle Approach to Unveil the Urban Thermal Signal Changes in Lisbon, Portugal

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12030292 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 292 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ana Oliveira ◽

António Lopes ◽

Ezequiel Correia ◽

Samuel Niza ◽

Amílcar Soares

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Wind Direction ◽

Urban Heat Islands ◽

Daily Cycle ◽

Local Climate ◽

Thermal Signal ◽

Air Temperatures ◽

Local Climate Change ◽

Urban Heat

Lisbon is a European Mediterranean city, greatly exposed to heatwaves (HW), according to recent trends and climate change prospects. Considering the Atlantic influence, air temperature observations from Lisbon’s mesoscale network are used to investigate the interactions between background weather and the urban thermal signal (UTS) in summer. Days are classified according to the prevailing regional wind direction, and hourly UTS is compared between HW and non-HW conditions. Northern-wind days predominate, revealing greater maximum air temperatures (up to 40 °C) and greater thermal amplitudes (approximately 10 °C), and account for 37 out of 49 HW days; southern-wind days have milder temperatures, and no HWs occur. Results show that the wind direction groups are significantly different. While southern-wind days have minor UTS variations, northern-wind days have a consistent UTS daily cycle: a diurnal urban cooling island (UCI) (often lower than –1.0 °C), a late afternoon peak urban heat island (UHI) (occasionally surpassing 4.0 °C), and a stable nocturnal UHI (1.5 °C median intensity). UHI/UCI intensities are not significantly different between HW and non-HW conditions, although the synoptic influence is noted. Results indicate that, in Lisbon, the UHI intensity does not increase during HW events, although it is significantly affected by wind. As such, local climate change adaptation strategies must be based on scenarios that account for the synergies between potential changes in regional air temperature and wind.

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Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change Scenarios on Ground Subsidence

Water ◽

10.3390/w12010219 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 219 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara ◽

David Pulido-Velazquez ◽

Rosa María Mateos ◽

Pablo Ezquerro

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Subsidence ◽

Ground Subsidence ◽

Lower Percentage ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Fine Grained ◽

Fine Grained Material ◽

The Impact

In this work, we developed a new method to assess the impact of climate change (CC) scenarios on land subsidence related to groundwater level depletion in detrital aquifers. The main goal of this work was to propose a parsimonious approach that could be applied for any case study. We also evaluated the methodology in a case study, the Vega de Granada aquifer (southern Spain). Historical subsidence rates were estimated using remote sensing techniques (differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar, DInSAR). Local CC scenarios were generated by applying a bias correction approach. An equifeasible ensemble of the generated projections from different climatic models was also proposed. A simple water balance approach was applied to assess CC impacts on lumped global drawdowns due to future potential rainfall recharge and pumping. CC impacts were propagated to drawdowns within piezometers by applying the global delta change observed with the lumped assessment. Regression models were employed to estimate the impacts of these drawdowns in terms of land subsidence, as well as to analyze the influence of the fine-grained material in the aquifer. The results showed that a more linear behavior was observed for the cases with lower percentage of fine-grained material. The mean increase of the maximum subsidence rates in the considered wells for the future horizon (2016–2045) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5 was 54%. The main advantage of the proposed method is its applicability in cases with limited information. It is also appropriate for the study of wide areas to identify potential hot spots where more exhaustive analyses should be performed. The method will allow sustainable adaptation strategies in vulnerable areas during drought-critical periods to be assessed.

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Short Communication: Climate change and biofuel wheat: A case study of southern Saskatchewan

Canadian Journal of Plant Science ◽

10.4141/cjps2011-192 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 92 (3) ◽

pp. 421-425 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Hong Wang ◽

Yong He ◽

Budong Qian ◽

Brian McConkey ◽

Herb Cutforth ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Grain Yield ◽

Short Communication ◽

Weather Data ◽

Yield Reduction ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Communication Climate ◽

Stochastic Weather Generator ◽

Ipcc Sres

Wang, H., He, Y., Qian, B., McConkey, B., Cutforth, H., McCaig, T., McLeod, G., Zentner, R., DePauw, R., Lemke, R., Brandt, K., Liu, T., Qin, X., White, J., Hunt, T. and Hoogenboom, G. 2012. Short Communication: Climate change and biofuel wheat: A case study of southern Saskatchewan. Can. J. Plant Sci. 92: 421–425. This study assessed potential impacts of climate change on wheat production as a biofuel crop in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer-Cropping System Model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate biomass and grain yield under three climate change scenarios (CGCM3 with the forcing scenarios of IPCC SRES A1B, A2 and B1) in the 2050s. Synthetic 300-yr weather data were generated by the AAFC stochastic weather generator for the baseline period (1961–1990) and each scenario. Compared with the baseline, precipitation is projected to increase in every month under all three scenarios except in July and August and in June for A2, when it is projected to decrease. Annual mean air temperature is projected to increase by 3.2, 3.6 and 2.7°C for A1B, A2 and B1, respectively. The model predicted increases in biomass by 28, 12 and 16% without the direct effect of CO2 and 74, 55 and 41% with combined effects (climate and CO2) for A1B, A2 and B1, respectively. Similar increases were found for grain yield. However, the occurrence of heat shock (>32°C) will increase during grain filling under the projected climate conditions and could cause severe yield reduction, which was not simulated by DSSAT-CSM. This implies that the future yield under climate scenarios might have been overestimated by DSSAT-CSM; therefore, model modification is required. Several measures, such as early seeding, must be taken to avoid heat damages and take the advantage of projected increases in temperature and precipitation in the early season.

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