scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF PRICE VARIABILITY ON CASH/FUTURES MARKET RELATIONSHIPS: IMPLICATIONS FOR MARKET EFFICIENCY AND PRICE DISCOVERY

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 539-559 ◽  
Author(s):  
CARLOS ARNADE ◽  
LINWOOD HOFFMAN
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Price Variability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Price Discovery Process

AbstractThis study investigates the relationship between cash and futures prices of soybeans and soybean meal from 1992 to 2013. Error correction models are estimated for the prices of both commodities. An exogenous measure of price variability is included in both models to determine if variability increases the speed with which cash and futures prices return to their long-run equilibrium relationship. This is used to measure the impact of price variability on short-run market efficiency and the price discovery process. The findings indicate that the level of price variability influences market adjustment rates and the price discovery process.

scholarly journals The Price Discovery Mechanism between Sovereign Bond and Sovereign CDS Market: Studies in Selected Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngan Bich Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Pricing Process ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Price Discovery Process

This paper employs the multivariate VAR model to examine the mechanic work of price discovery process between sovereign CDS market and the associated sovereign bond market in contexts of five European and Asian countries, including Vietnam, Korea, Portugal, Italy and France from the beginning of 2008 to the end of April, 2017. The study accentuates on three aspects: the short-term interaction nexus between the sovereign CDS and the associated-sovereign bond market, the long-term co-movement between them and the discovery of which market plays the leading role in the pricing process. The results evidence the short-run and long-run relationship for the two markets. Particularly, the empirical test results support for the predominant role of the sovereign CDS market in the price discovery process in the bulk of sample entities. This might suggests for the governments to use CDS prices as the future indicator for predicting the volatility of debt markets.

Functional Effectiveness of Commodity Futures Market: A Comparative Assessment of Agricultural and Metal Commodities

Paradigm ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-60
Author(s):  
Bhabani Sankar Rout ◽  
Nupur Moni Das ◽  
K. Chandrasekhara Rao
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Comparative Assessment ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Vecm Granger Causality ◽  
Price Discovery Process

The study focuses on examining the price discovery process, short run disturbances and hedging mechanism of agricultural and metal commodities futures market for the period January 2010 to December 2018. Contango and normal backwardation have also been taken into deliberation for select commodities which are traded in MCX and NCDEX, India which is a valuable addition to the existing body of literature in derivatives market. Johansen’s co-integration, VECM, Granger causality test and OLS are employed for understanding the price discovery and constant hedging for select commodities. Further, existence contango and normal backwardation have been observed by comparing the spot and futures prices. It has been found that spot market is acting as a leader in the longer period and laggard in short run investors can be benefitted to take short run or long run investment decision.

Spreading the Word: Price Discovery and Newswire Dissemination of Management Earnings Guidance

2015 ◽  
Vol 91 (1) ◽  
pp. 317-346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brady Twedt
Keyword(s):  
Price Discovery ◽  
Matched Control ◽  
Substantial Effect ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Earnings Guidance ◽  
Management Earnings Guidance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Guidance Information ◽  
Price Discovery Process

ABSTRACT This study investigates the impact of dissemination on the efficiency of the price discovery process with respect to management earnings guidance disclosures. I first identify firm and guidance characteristics associated with the likelihood that guidance receives coverage in the Dow Jones Newswires. Using propensity score, within-firm, and returns-based matched control samples of guidance, I find that newswire dissemination is associated with larger initial price reactions and, more importantly, an increase in the speed with which guidance information is incorporated into price. I also find that newswire coverage affects the market's reaction to stand-alone versus bundled guidance and good versus bad news guidance. This study is the first to provide evidence of systematic variation, both across and within firms, in the breadth of guidance dissemination, and it shows that this variation has a substantial effect on how investors respond to guidance. JEL Classifications: G14; M41; L82.

Does Ban on Futures trading (de)stabilise spot volatility?

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neharika Sobti
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Futures Trading ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Spot Volatility ◽  
Non Parametric

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to ascertain the possible consequences of ban on futures trading of agriculture commodities in India by examining three critical issues: first, the author explores whether price discovery dominance changes between futures and spot in the pre-ban and post-relaunch phase both in the long run and short run. Second, the author examines the impact of ban and relaunch of futures trading on its underlying spot volatility for five sample cases of agriculture commodities (Wheat, Sugar, Soya Refined Oil, Rubber and Chana) using both parametric and non-parametric tests. Third, the author revisits the destabilization hypothesis in the light of ban on futures trading by examining the impact of unexpected component of liquidity of futures on spot volatility. Design/methodology/approach The author uses widely adopted methodology of co-integration to examine long-run relationship between spot and futures, while the short-run relationship is investigated using vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality to test price discovery in the pre-ban and post-relaunch phases. The second objective is explored using a combination of parametric and non-parametric tests such as Welch one-way ANOVA and Kruskal–Wallis test, respectively, to gauge the impact of ban on futures trading on spot volatility along with post hoc tests to investigate pairwise comparison of spot volatility among three phases (pre-ban, ban and post-relaunch) using Dunn Test. In addition, extensive robustness test is undertaken by adopting augmented E-GARCH model to ascertain the impact of ban and relaunch of futures trading on spot volatility. The third objective is investigated using Granger causality test between spot volatility and unexpected component of liquidity of futures estimated using Hodrick and Prescott (HP) filter to re-visit the destabilization hypothesis. Findings The author found extensive evidence for the dominance of futures market in the price discovery of agriculture commodities both in the pre-ban and post-relaunch phases in India. The ban on futures trading is found to have a destabilizing impact on spot volatility as evident from the findings of Wheat, Sugar and Rubber. In addition, it is observed that spot volatility was highest during the ban phase as compared to the pre-ban and post-relaunch phases for all four commodities barring Chana. The author found that destabilisation hypothesis holds true during the pre ban phase, while weakening of destabilization hypothesis is observed in the post-relaunch phase as unexpected futures liquidity has no role in driving the spot volatility. Originality/value This study is a novel attempt to empirically examine the potential impact of ban and relaunch of futures trading of agriculture commodities on two key market quality dimensions – price discovery and spot volatility. In addition, destabilization hypothesis is revisited to investigate the impact of futures trading on spot volatility during the pre-ban and post-relaunch period.

scholarly journals The Effectiveness of Price Bands on Emerging Markets: Evidence from India

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 195
Author(s):  
Chakrapani Chaturvedula ◽  
Nikhil Rastogi
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Price Limits ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Price Discovery Process ◽  
Spillover Hypothesis

We study the impact of price bands in the Indian capital markets and following the methodology of Kim and Rhee (1997) we do not find evidence in support of the volatility spillover hypothesis. Our evidence suggests that price limits does not hinder the price discovery process and may play an important role in reducing the volatility of stock prices in the emerging markets like India.

Price Discovery and Market Efficiency of Commodities Futures Market in India- A Cointegration and Causality Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaik Masood ◽  
T. Satyanarayana Chary
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Commodity Futures ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run

The paper studies the Indian commodity futures market in order to determine the price discovery, long run market efficiency and short run dynamics in futures market using by time series analysis tools. To test the market efficiency and long run equilibrium, tools like Engle and Granger co-integration test (1987) and Johansen co-integration test (1988) have been applied. The Granger Causality (1969) test is used test the market efficiency to infer cause and affect relationship between spot and futures market in India. To examine efficiency of commodity futures and spot market the MCXs1 four spot and futures commodity indices data are used. The paper observes that the role of commodity futures is very significant in price discovery, and improving efficiency of the market.

scholarly journals Policy, Institutions and Non-Oil Exports: Evidence from Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Martins Iyoboyi ◽  
Abdelrasaq Na-Allah
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

<p>In this paper, the impact of policy and institutions on non-oil exports in Nigeria is investigated, using data from secondary sources for the period 1961-2012, and implemented through the autoregressive distributed lag framework. Non-oil exports were found to have a long-run equilibrium relationship with policy and institutional variables. Money supply and exchange rate were found to be positively associated with and statistically significant determinants of non-oil exports in the long and short run. Fiscal deficit, interest rate, ‘constraints on the executive’ and openness were found to be inversely related to non-oil exports in both the short and long run. While inflation was found to be negatively related to non-oil exports in the short run, it is the reverse in the long run. An enhanced political institutional framework is required, that is attuned to growth in the non-oil sector of the economy, as a mechanism for improving the country’s non-oil exports.</p>

Information Spillover in Indian Agricultural Commodities Market

2021 ◽  
pp. 2319510X2199404
Author(s):  
Sanjay Kumar Singh ◽  
Mukesh Kumar Jain ◽  
Shoeba
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Discovery Process ◽  
Agricultural Commodities ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Agrarian Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Information Spillover ◽  
Price Discovery Process

Role of agricultural sector in Indian economy is prominent, as being an agrarian economy and having the second highest population in the world. Thus, the efficiency of this sector is the foremost factor for development and growth of the economy. This article attempts to examine the price discovery relationship of future and spot prices of five agricultural commodities, namely cardamom, crude palm oil, cotton, mentha oil and kapas, during the period 2011–2019. Johansen’s co-integration test, vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality block exogeneity test were employed for the study. We found that price discovery process is established for agricultural commodities under consideration. Future prices act as a leader in achieving long-run equilibrium for all commodities except cardamom. Causality was significantly reported for all commodities, as bidirectional causality runs between the prices. The study suggests that Forward Market Commission should be empowered more to control and regulate the market, which will ensure the efficient market situations in these commodities’ market. Attempt was made to evaluate price discovery process in agricultural commodities market during post sub-prime crisis period, which was ignored by majority of researchers.

scholarly journals Impact of Exports and Imports on Economic Growth in Rwanda: 1961-2018

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Ruranga ◽  
Daniel S. Ruturwa ◽  
Valens Rwema
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of trade on economic growth in Rwanda. This paper uses exports and imports for trade and gross domestic product for economic growth. Research questions were formulated as (1) Are exports, imports and economic growth cointegrated? (2) Is there a long or short run relationship between those Variables? (3) Are there any causal relationships between factors (4) what the direction of the causality is it? Annual time series data from World Development Indicators for the period from 1961 to 2018 have been used. The methods of linear regression for estimation of Vector Auto regressions models have been used. Our findings established that VAR was appropriate model, and GDP, Exports were stationary at first differences while Imports was stationary at second difference but not at levels. Hence the two series were integrated of order one and the third one was integrated of order two. Tests of cointegration indicates that the three variables were not cointegrated, implying there was no long run equilibrium relationship between the three series. The causality test indicated that exports and imports influenced GDP. On the other hand, we found that there was a strong evidence of unidirectional causality from exports to economic growth. However, there was bidirectional causality between GDP and imports. These results provide evidence that exports and imports, thus, were seen as the source of economic growth in Rwanda.

scholarly journals Trade Liberalization and Manufacturing Growth in Malaysia A Cointegration Analysis

2006 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Karunagaran Madhavan ◽  
Deviga Vengedasalam ◽  
Veera Pandiyan Vengedasalam
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Manufacturing Growth ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of trade liberalization in the manufacturing sector in Malaysia. The theoretical framework for this study employs the Lucas model of 'human capital model of endogenous model'. This study also uses the cointergration test and error correction techniques to measure the impact of trade liberalization on Malaysian manufacturing sector during the period 1963-2003. The empirical results of cointergration test suggest that there exists a long run relationship between manufacturing output and its determinants of trade liberalization, labour, capital and education level. This study uses error correction model (ECM) to determine the short-run dynamics around the equilibrium relationship and suggest that labour and trade liberalization have emerged as significant determinants for the  manufacturing output in Malaysia.

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