RISK-BASED CAPITAL FOR VARIABLE ANNUITY UNDER STOCHASTIC INTEREST RATE

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 959-999
Author(s):  
JinDong Wang ◽  
Wei Xu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Joint Dynamics ◽  
Contract Attributes ◽  
The Interest Rate

AbstractInterest rate is one of the main risks for the liability of the variable annuity (VA) due to its long maturity. However, most existing studies on the risk measures of the VA assume a constant interest rate. In this paper, we propose an efficient two-dimensional willow tree method to compute the liability distribution of the VA with the joint dynamics of the mutual fund and interest rate. The risk measures can then be computed by the backward induction on the tree structure. We also analyze the sensitivity and impact on the risk measures with regard to the market model parameters, contract attributes, and monetary policy changes. It illustrates that the liability of the VA is determined by the long-term interest rate whose increment leads to a decrease in the liability. The positive correlation between the interest rate and mutual fund generates a fat-tailed liability distribution. Moreover, the monetary policy change has a bigger impact on the long-term VAs than the short-term contracts.

scholarly journals Analysis of Macroeconomics Stability Control of ICI Countries (Indonesia, China, India) Based on Transmission of Monetary Policy through Interest Rate Channel

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 226-234
Author(s):  
Annisa Anggreini Siswanto ◽  
Ahmad Albar Tanjung ◽  
Irsad Lubis
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Transmission Of Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

This study aims to analyze variable control of macroeconomic stability based on monetary policy transmission through interest rate channels in Indonesia, China, India (ICI). Variables used in the interest rate are rill interest rates, consumption, investment, gross domestic product, and inflation. This study used secondary data from 2000 to 2019. The results of the PVECM analysis through the interest rate channel show that the control of economic stability of the ICI country is carried out by investment variables and gross domestic product in the short term, while in the long run it is carried out by consumption, investment and gross domestic product. The results of the IRF analysis are the response stability of all variables is formed in the medium and long term periods. The results of the FEVD analysis show that there are variables that have the greatest contribution in the variable itself either in the short, medium, long term. The results of the interaction analysis of each variable transmission of monetary policy through interest rates can maintain and control the economic stability of the ICI country. Keywords: Interest Rate Channel, Interest Rate, Consumption, Investment, Gross Domestic Product, Inflation.

scholarly journals Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy: Case Study of Interest Rate Channel in India

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
Prakash Anant Salvi ◽  
Davinder Kaur Suri
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

In India, prior to 1991, the tightly controlled interest rates caused impediments in the functioning of the interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission while after 1991, the RBI undertook various measures to strengthen the market-determination of interest rates. This paper has examined the evolution of the interest channel in India across the period 1985 to 2014 firstly by studying the interest rate pass-through using the Correlation matrix and the OLS technique and secondly, by studying the transmission of policy rates to the real economy using the reduced VAR model. The results show that the transmission of interest rates pass-through from policy rates to market interest rates (both - short-term as well as long-term) has strengthened while desired impact of long term market interest rates on industrial production and inflation appears to be weak.

scholarly journals Credibility of the Philippine Central Bank: Evidenced by the Interest Rate Pass-Through

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-56
Author(s):  
Chu V. Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Empirical Finding ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study investigates the Philippine interest rate pass-through over the December 2001 through January 2016 period. The empirical findings suggest that the Philippine Central Bank has not been very effective in formulating and implementing its countercyclical monetary policy. Specifically, the empirical results reveal very low short-run and long- run interest rate pass-through. The Bounds test results indicate no long-term relationship between countercyclical monetary policy and market rates. Notwithstanding the banking system's remarkable performance in the recent years, amid lingering uncertainties in global financial markets, the Philippine Central Bank lacked the credibility in conducting its countercyclical monetary policy. This empirical finding may not be desirable but it forewarns the monetary policy makers of challenges in formulating and implementing their monetary policy.

Hauptrefinanzierungszins, Interbankenmarkt und Geldangebot im Euroraum

2011 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Achim Hauck ◽  
Ulrike Neyer ◽  
Thomas Vieten
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Interbank Market ◽  
Policy Variable ◽  
Operating Target ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Transmission Of Monetary Policy

SummaryIn macroeconomic models, the nominal money supply, the long-term nominal interest rate, or even the inflation rate usually serves as the monetary policy variable. In practice, however, none of these variables is directly controlled by the central bank. Consequently, these models do not accurately reflect the implementation of monetary policy. Based on a theoretical model which incorporates the main institutional features of the euro area, this paper analyzes the transmission of monetary policy impulses from their implementation (setting the interest rate at which banks can obtain liquidity from the central bank) via the interbank market to the aggregate money and credit supply in an economy. Building on this analysis, we discuss the ability of the central bank to steer its operating target, the interbank market interest rate, and the money supply.

The Role of Different Channels in Transmitting Monetary Policy into Output and Price in Vietnam

2015 ◽  
pp. 20-40
Author(s):  
Vinh Nguyen Thi Thuy
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

The paper investigates the mechanism of monetary transmission in Vietnam through different channels - namely the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel, the asset channel and the credit channel for the period January 1995 - October 2009. This study applies VAR analysis to evaluate the monetary transmission mechanisms to output and price level. To compare the relative importance of different channels for transmitting monetary policy, the paper estimates the impulse response functions and variance decompositions of variables. The empirical results show that the changes in money supply have a significant impact on output rather than price in the short run. The impacts of money supply on price and output are stronger through the exchange rate and credit channels, but however, are weaker through the interest rate channel. The impacts of monetary policy on output and inflation may be erroneous through the equity price channel because of the lack of an established and well-functioning stock market.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy in the Post Keynesian Theoretical Framework

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-64
Author(s):  
FÁBIO HENRIQUE BITTES TERRA ◽  
PHILIP ARESTIS
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Original Writings ◽  
Policy Model ◽  
Original Contribution ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy Framework

ABSTRACT The purpose of this contribution is to develop a Post Keynesian monetary policy model, presenting its goals, tools, and channels. The original contribution this paper develops, following (Keynes’s 1936, 1945) proposals, is the use of debt management as an instrument of monetary policy, along with the interest rate and regulation. Moreover, this paper draws its monetary policy model by broadly and strongly relying on Keynes’s original writings. A monetary policy model erected upon this basis relates itself directly to the Post Keynesian efforts to offer a monetary policy framework substantially different from the Inflation Targeting Regime of the New Macroeconomic Consensus.

Crawford Development Co. and Southeast Bank of Texas

2007 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Anton Ovchinnikov ◽  
Elena Loutskina ◽  
Casey Lichtendahl ◽  
Jayson Lipsey ◽  
Brian Burke
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
Commercial Development ◽  
Residential Market ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Real Estate Financing

In the early months of the 2007-08 financial crises, a loan manager faces a real estate financing decision. Should he approve a bullet structure three-year loan to a longstanding client, a legendary Texan developer? The developer, who near retirement downsized his business, is seeking financing for his only project: residential or commercial development on an attractive piece of land in suburban Houston. The loan manager considers the decision in light of the mortgage market turmoil, seeing commercial projects as safer, but also factoring that the residential market could bring higher returns if the market stabilizes soon. The manager collects the data and asks an analyst to assess the risks; that ultimately requires assessing the economics of both projects from both the bank’s and the developer’s perspectives. The bank could still change the interest rate on the loan to receive adequate compensation for the risk it carries, but the loan manager knows that doing so will change their long-term client willingness to take on the loan.

scholarly journals The impact of Musharakah financing on the monetary policy in the Islamic economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 139-152
Author(s):  
Hatem Adela
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Methodological Framework ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Return Rates ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to contribute to formulating the methodological framework for a paradigm of Islamic economics, using the development of the conventional economics, theoretical and mathematical methods. Design/methodology/approach The study based on the inductive and mathematical methods to contribute to economic theory within the methodological framework for Islamic Economics, by using the return rate of Musharakah rather than the interest rate in influence the economic activity and monetary policy. Findings Via replacement, the concept of the interest rate by the return rates of Musharakah. It concludes that the central bank can control the monetary policy, economic activity and the efficient allocation of resources by using the return rates of Musharakah through the framework of Islamic economy. Practical/implications The study is a contribution to formulate the methodological framework for a paradigm of Islamic economics, where it investigates the impact of return rates of Musharakah on the money market and monetary policy, by the mathematical methods used in the conventional economy. Also, the study illustrates the importance of further studies that examine the methodological framework for Islamic Economics. Originality/value The study aims to contribute to formulating the Islamic economic theory, through the return rate of Musharakah financing instead of the interest rate, and its effectiveness of the monetary policy. As well as reformulating the concepts of the investment function, the present value and the marginal efficiency rate of investment according to the Islamic economy approach.

scholarly journals The Unpleasant Arithmetic of the Taylor Rule

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. p89
Author(s):  
Alejandro Rodriguez-Arana
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Independent Component ◽  
Elasticity Of Substitution ◽  
Interest Rate Rule

This paper analyzes the effect of a monetary policy that raises the reference interest rate in order to reduce inflation in a situation where the fiscal policy parameters remain constant. In an overlapping generation’s model and in the presence of an accelerationist Phillips curve and a Taylor rule of interest rates, it is observed that increasing the independent component of said rule leads to a solution that at least in a large number of cases is unstable. In the case where the elasticity of substitution is greater than one, inflation falls temporarily, but then it can increase in an unstable manner. One way to achieve stability is to establish an interest rate rule where Taylor’s principle is not met. However, in this case many times the increase in the independent component of this rule will generate greater long-term inflation.

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