scholarly journals Second-order effects or ideational rifts? Explaining outcomes of European elections in an era of populist politics

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 350-367
Author(s):  
Piret Ehin ◽  
Liisa Talving
Keyword(s):  
System Design ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Far Right ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Party Size ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Electoral Performance

AbstractThis article seeks to enhance our understanding of the European Parliament (EP) elections in an era of populist and anti-European Union (EU) politics. Specifically, it aims to evaluate both the conventional second-order elections theory as well as an alternative approach that regards EP elections as an arena for conflict between liberal-democratic Europeanism and populist, extremist and euroskeptic alternatives. It does so by deriving a series of hypotheses from both approaches and testing these with party-level data from all EU member states in the context of 2019 EP elections. Our results challenge both explanations. Party size is a robust predictor of electoral performance in EP elections, and its effect is moderated by electoral system design. While large parties lost votes across the EU, their losses were more pronounced in countries where national legislatures are elected under plurality or mixed systems. We find no evidence of incumbent losses or electoral cycle effects. Party-level populism, extremism and euroskepticism did not systematically predict electoral performance but party ideology appears to have moderated the effects of incumbency and party size. Incumbency was associated with vote gain among populist and far-right parties but not other parties, and the effect of size also varied across party ideologies. In sum, these results suggest that vote fragmentation in the 2019 EP elections is partly explained by electoral system design, while it was not driven by the desire to punish political incumbents. Populist and far-right parties in power appear to be particularly immune to punishing behavior often associated with EP elections.

scholarly journals Still second-order? European elections in the era of populism, extremism, and euroskepticism

Politics ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 026339572098602
Author(s):  
Piret Ehin ◽  
Liisa Talving
Keyword(s):  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Second Order ◽  
National Elections ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Recent Success ◽  
Potent Predictor ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Gains And Losses

The continued relevance of the second-order elections (SOE) theory is one of the most widely debated issues in the study of European Parliament (EP) elections. While the theory has been criticized from many angles, the recent success of populist, extremist, and Eurosceptic parties raises additional questions about the applicability of a model that depicts EP elections as a low-stakes affair revolving around national issues. This article tests the SOE model with party-level data from all 175 EP elections held between 1979 and 2019. While turnout in EP elections remains well below participation rates in national elections, the 2019 EP elections were marked by a significant reduction in the average turnout gap. Across all election years, party size is the most potent predictor of electoral gains and losses in EP elections. Incumbency is associated with electoral losses in most EP election years. These effects are moderated by the electoral cycle and the electoral system in some but not all years. The expectation that the SOE model performs worse in countries with fragmented party systems was not confirmed. All in all, the SOE model continues to wield significant explanatory power in both the West and the East.

The 2019 European Elections: a ‘second-order’ vote with ‘first-order’ effects

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 736-756 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gianfranco Pasquino ◽  
Marco Valbruzzi
Keyword(s):  
Second Order ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
European Elections ◽  
First Order

scholarly journals Europe matters … upon closer investigation: a novel approach for analysing individual-level determinants of vote choice across first- and second-order elections, applied to 2019 Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 334-349
Author(s):  
Davide Angelucci ◽  
Lorenzo De Sio ◽  
Aldo Paparo
Keyword(s):  
Classical Model ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Party Change ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Second Order Effects ◽  
The Individual

AbstractAre European Parliament (EP) elections still second-order? In this article, we test the classical model at the individual level in contrast to an alternative ‘Europe matters’ model, by investigating the relative importance of domestic vs. European Union (EU)-related issues among voter-level determinants of aggregate second-order effects, that is, individual party change. We do so by relying on an original, CAWI pre-electoral survey featuring a distinctively large (30) number of both domestic and EU-related, positional and valence issues, with issue attitudes measured according to the innovative ICCP scheme (De Sio and Lachat 2020) which includes issue positions, issue priorities and respondents' assessment of party credibility on both positional and valence goals. Leveraging the concept of ‘normal vote’, we estimate multivariate models of electoral defections from normal voting separately for general and European elections, based on issue party credibility. This allows us to assess: (a) the distinctiveness of the two electoral arenas in terms of issue content; and (b) the relative impact of EU-related and domestic issues on defections of Italian voters. Our findings show that although second-order effects are still relevant in accounting for results in EP elections, vote choice in the latter is also partly due to specific effects of certain policy issues, including some related to the European dimension. This indicates that EP elections have their own political content, for which Europe matters even after controlling for the importance that EU-related issues have acquired in national elections.

Testing the Second-Order Election Model after Four European Elections

1998 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 591-607 ◽  
Author(s):  
MICHAEL MARSH
Keyword(s):  
European Parliament ◽  
National Election ◽  
Second Order ◽  
National Elections ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Using Data ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
The Impact

Reif and Schmitt argued that elections to the European Parliament should be understood as second-order national elections, and advanced several predictions about the results of such elections. Those concerning the impact of government status, party size, party character and the national election cycle on electoral performance are examined here using data on four sets of European Parliament elections. In addition, the consequences of European Parliament elections for the next national election are explored. The analysis demonstrates the validity of most of Reif and Schmitt's original propositions, and further refines their analysis of the relationship between European and subsequent national elections. However, all propositions hold much more effectively in countries where alternation in government is the norm, suggesting that the distinction between first-order and second-order elections may not be so clear cut as Reif and Schmitt imagined.

Determination of Combined and Second Order Factor Effects for Simultaneous Optimization of Physical and Mechanical Properties of NR/BR Blend System

2014 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 290-304
Author(s):  
Rajarajan Aiyengar ◽  
Jyoti Divecha
Keyword(s):  
Physical And Mechanical Properties ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Simultaneous Optimization ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Elongation At Break ◽  
Five Factors ◽  
Rubber Compounds ◽  
Polybutadiene Rubber ◽  
Contour Plots

ABSTRACT The blends of natural rubber (NR), polybutadiene rubber (BR), and other forms of rubbers are widely used for enhancing the mechanical and physical properties of rubber compounds. Lots of work has been done in conditioning and mixing of NR/BR blends to improve the properties of its rubber compounds and end products such as tire tread. This article employs response surface methodology designed experiments in five factors; high abrasion furnace carbon black (N 330), aromatic oil, NR/BR ratio, sulfur, and N-oxydiethylene-2-benzothiazole sulfenamide for determination of combined and second order effects of the significant factors leading to simultaneous optimization of the NR/BR blend system. One of the overall optimum of eight properties existed at carbon 44 phr, oil 6.1 phr, NR/BR 78/22 phr with the following values of properties: tensile strength (22 MPa), elongation at break (528%), tear resistance (30 kg/mm), rebound resilience (67%), moderate hardness (68 International rubber hardness degrees) with low heat buildup (17 °C), permanent set (12%), and abrasion loss (57 mm3). More optimum combinations can easily be determined from the NR/BR blend system models contour plots.

Electoral System Design in New Democracies

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
John M. Carey
Keyword(s):  
System Design ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
New Democracies

scholarly journals Losers together? Grand coalitions in the EU member states

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Marco Morini ◽  
Matthew Loveless
Keyword(s):  
Significant Rise ◽  
Grand Coalition ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
The European Union ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Political Experience ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
The Eu

Abstract Over the last two decades, the formation of grand coalitions has grown in the European Union (EU), even in countries with no previous political experience with them. Alongside a significant rise in both new and radical parties, grand coalitions signal the increasing fragmentation of contemporary European politics. We, therefore, investigate the electoral performance of both mainstream and new parties entering and leaving grand coalitions. We find that mainstream parties do not appear to enter grand coalitions after negative election results. They are, however, punished in the following elections, albeit not as heavily as previous findings have shown. This post-grand coalition electoral penalty is true for both major and minor grand coalition members. These findings contribute to the literature on party competition and provide insights into the choices mainstream parties' have been making in response to recent and rapid changes in the electoral landscape of the EU.

scholarly journals When do parties put Europe in the centre? Evidence from the 2019 European Parliament election campaign

Politics ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 026339572110083
Author(s):  
Michaela Maier ◽  
Carlos Jalali ◽  
Jürgen Maier ◽  
Alessandro Nai ◽  
Sebastian Stier
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
National Level ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Integrated Model ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
European Elections ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
The Media ◽  
Opposition Parties

European elections have been described as second-order phenomena for voters, the media, but also parties. Yet, since 2009, there exists evidence that not only voters, but also political parties assign increasing significance to European elections. While initially ‘issue entrepreneurs’ were held responsible for this development, the latest campaigns have raised the question of whether mainstream parties are finally also campaigning on European issues. In this article, we examine European Union (EU) salience in the 2019 European Parliament (EP) campaigns of government and opposition parties and the predictors of their strategic behaviours. We test the relevance of factors derived from the selective emphasis and the co-orientation approach within an integrated model of strategic campaign communication based on expert evaluations of 191 parties in 28 EU member states. Results show that the traditional expectation that government parties silence EU issues does not hold anymore; instead, the average EU salience of government and opposition parties is similar on the national level. The strongest predictors for a party’s decision to campaign on EU issues are the co-orientation towards the campaign agendas of competing parties, and party’s EU position.

Resistive switching kinetics and second-order effects in parylene-based memristors

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (24) ◽  
pp. 243501
Author(s):  
Anna N. Matsukatova ◽  
Andrey V. Emelyanov ◽  
Anton A. Minnekhanov ◽  
Aleksandr A. Nesmelov ◽  
Artem Yu. Vdovichenko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Resistive Switching ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Second Order Effects

Electoral System Design in Russian Oblasti and Republics: A Four Case Comparison

2003 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 437-468 ◽  
Author(s):  
BRYON J. MORASKI
Keyword(s):  
System Design ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Case Comparison
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