Projected effects of temperature changes on the Italian Western Tauri glaciers (Eastern Alps)

ABSTRACTA linear model was used to investigate the behaviour of the Italian Western Tauri glaciers as a result of temperature changes projected for the 21st century. The model estimates the temperature variations once the glacier snout length variations are known and vice versa: it estimates the glacier snout length variations once the air temperature variations are known or predicted. The 46 glaciers of the Italian Western Tauri, 35 (76%) of which have areas smaller than 0.5 km2 and only 7 (15%) larger than 1 km2, are mostly mountain type glaciers and only three are presently valley glaciers. The model has been forced by the air temperature projections of the A1B emission scenario, which indicates an increase in temperature of 2.7°C from 2015 to 2100. The results show a shortening of more than 35% for mountain glaciers by 2100 with a surface loss of more than 60% and smaller reductions for valley glaciers. The consequent fragmentation into smaller units would lead to the extinction of 95% of the existing glaciers by the end of the century, possibly leaving only the valley glaciers surviving.