Effects of climate change on the valley glaciers of the Italian Alps

The behaviour of the valley glaciers of the Italian Alps as a result of the climate changes expected for the 21st century has been investigated. From 1980 to 2017 the average length reductions of these glaciers has been 16 % and their average areal reduction around 22 %, much smaller than the overall glacier retreat of the Alps. Their mean observed shortening was about 500 m for a temperature increase of 1.4 °C. To quantify the valley glacier life expectancy, a model estimating their length variations from the air temperature variations of the EuroCordex climatological projections of six different models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios has been used. The ensemble mean temperatures in the Italian Alps region under these scenarios indicate increases of temperature of ~2 °C and ~4 °C from 2018 to 2100 respectively. In both scenarios, the glacier model projections show a constant retreat until the eighties, weakening towards the end of the century. As expected, it resulted more severe under the RCP8.5 (from 22 % to 48 %) than under the RCP4.5 (from 10 % to 25 %) scenario, with a mean length shortening of 35 % and 13 % respectively by 2100. The model used estimates that the majority of the valley glaciers could better resist the climate change.

Linkages of surface air temperature variations over Central Asia with large-scale climate patterns

In this study, we investigate the dominant modes of surface air temperature variations of the cold season (from November through to the next March) and the warm season (from May to September) over Central Asia, and their associations with large-scale climate patterns for the period of 1979–2016. The first two modes of the cold-season surface air temperature (CSAT) over Central Asia, obtained by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, feature the mono-pole structure and the north-south dipole pattern, respectively. For the warm-season surface air temperature (WSAT), the leading two EOF modes are characterized by the homogenous structure and the northwest-southeast seesaw pattern, respectively. Further analysis indicates that the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies play key roles in the CSAT and WSAT variations over Central Asia. The CSAT variation over Central Asia is closely related with the Scandinavia pattern (SCAND), the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), while the WSAT variation is tightly tied to the East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern (EAWR) and the NAO. These large-scale climate patterns tend to cause the CSAT and WSAT anomalies over Central Asia via their effects on regional geopotential heights, warming advections and other processes. Our findings are expected to facilitate the improvement of understanding and predicting the CSAT and WSAT variations over Central Asia.

What expect us in XXI centure: further heating or cooling of climate?

The natural and anthropogenic factors of global air temperature oscillations are examined and compared. The analysis of solar radiation intensity for the last 300 years was observed, the prediction of solar activity on the period until 2100 year was carried out. Quality estimates of expected global air temperature variations in the current century were received.

Projected effects of temperature changes on the Italian Western Tauri glaciers (Eastern Alps)

ABSTRACTA linear model was used to investigate the behaviour of the Italian Western Tauri glaciers as a result of temperature changes projected for the 21st century. The model estimates the temperature variations once the glacier snout length variations are known and vice versa: it estimates the glacier snout length variations once the air temperature variations are known or predicted. The 46 glaciers of the Italian Western Tauri, 35 (76%) of which have areas smaller than 0.5 km2 and only 7 (15%) larger than 1 km2, are mostly mountain type glaciers and only three are presently valley glaciers. The model has been forced by the air temperature projections of the A1B emission scenario, which indicates an increase in temperature of 2.7°C from 2015 to 2100. The results show a shortening of more than 35% for mountain glaciers by 2100 with a surface loss of more than 60% and smaller reductions for valley glaciers. The consequent fragmentation into smaller units would lead to the extinction of 95% of the existing glaciers by the end of the century, possibly leaving only the valley glaciers surviving.

Temperature and moisture distribution in a highway in south-eastern Kazakhstan

The matters of investigation for water thermal regime of pavement and subgrade structures of the highways are especially important as the moisture and temperature distribution in pavement and subgrade layers impact greatly on their deformation and strength indicators. Experimental results, which can be obtained by special measurement devices, are primary ones for establishing of peculiarities and regularities for distribution and migration of heat and moisture in the mentioned structural elements of the highways. Special measurement devices are required to obtain such experimental data. The paper shows the results for analysis of temperature and moisture variation in points of pavement and subgrade of “Almaty-Bishkek” highway. Temperature measurement has been performed by set of special sensors. Regular temperature and moisture measurement have been performed for the period from September 18, 2015 to June 2, 2016. Regularities for temperature regime variation in points of pavement for 24 hours are coordinated with air temperature variations. Amplitude of vibration for temperature is decreased with the depth increase. Moisture in subgrade points is gradually decreased with the reduction of daily average air temperature.