How to elicit sound probabilistic reasoning: Beyond word problems

AbstractBarbey & Sloman (B&S) conclude that natural frequency theorists have raised a fundamental question: What are the conditions that compel individuals to reason extensionally? We argue that word problems asking for a numerical judgment used by these theorists cannot answer this question. We present evidence that nonverbal tasks can elicit correct intuitions of posterior probability even in preschoolers.

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Enhancing sensitivity to base-rates: Natural frequencies are not enough

Behavioral and Brain Sciences ◽

10.1017/s0140525x07001732 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 30 (3) ◽

pp. 262-263

Author(s):

Edmund Fantino ◽

Stephanie Stolarz-Fantino

Keyword(s):

Natural Frequency ◽

Natural Frequencies ◽

Base Rate ◽

Present Evidence ◽

Base Rates ◽

Base Rate Neglect ◽

Rate Information ◽

Trial Setting

AbstractWe present evidence supporting the target article's assertion that while the presentation of base-rate information in a natural frequency format can be helpful in enhancing sensitivity to base rates, method of presentation is not a panacea. Indeed, we review studies demonstrating that when subjects directly experience base rates as natural frequencies in a trial-by-trial setting, they evince large base-rate neglect.

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What can the conjunction fallacy tell us about human reasoning?

10.31234/osf.io/yrh5f ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Katya Tentori

Keyword(s):

Posterior Probability ◽

Probabilistic Reasoning ◽

Real Life ◽

Conjunction Fallacy ◽

Human Reasoning ◽

Open Issue ◽

Reasoning Errors

In this chapter, I will brieﬂy summarize and discuss the main results obtained from more than three decades of studies on the conjunction fallacy (hereafter CF) and will argue that this striking and widely debated reasoning error is a robust phenomenon that can systematically aﬀect laypeople’s as much as experts’ probabilistic inferences, with potentially relevant real-life consequences. I will then introduce what is, in my view, the best explanation for the CF and indicate how it allows the reconciliation of some classic probabilistic reasoning errors with the outstanding reasoning performances that humans have been shown capable of. Finally, I will tackle the open issue of the greater accuracy and reliability of evidential impact assessments over those of posterior probability and outline how further research on this topic might also contribute to the development of eﬀective human-like computing.

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A Quick Visual Mind Can be a Slow Auditory Mind

Experimental Psychology (formerly Zeitschrift für Experimentelle Psychologie) ◽

10.1027/1618-3169.56.1.33 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 56 (1) ◽

pp. 33-40 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Sander Martens ◽

Addie Johnson ◽

Martje Bolle ◽

Jelmer Borst

Keyword(s):

Attentional Blink ◽

Task Difficulty ◽

Human Mind ◽

Visual Modality ◽

Present Evidence ◽

Conscious Level ◽

Visual Targets ◽

Concurrent Information

The human mind is severely limited in processing concurrent information at a conscious level of awareness. These temporal restrictions are clearly reflected in the attentional blink (AB), a deficit in reporting the second of two targets when it occurs 200–500 ms after the first. However, we recently reported that some individuals do not show a visual AB, and presented psychophysiological evidence that target processing differs between “blinkers” and “nonblinkers”. Here, we present evidence that visual nonblinkers do show an auditory AB, which suggests that a major source of attentional restriction as reflected in the AB is likely to be modality-specific. In Experiment 3, we show that when the difficulty in identifying visual targets is increased, nonblinkers continue to show little or no visual AB, suggesting that the presence of an AB in the auditory but not in the visual modality is not due to a difference in task difficulty.

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Effects of Problem Features on Strategy Selection in Mathematics Word Problems

PsycEXTRA Dataset ◽

10.1037/e537272012-328 ◽

1994 ◽

Author(s):

Irvin R. Katz ◽

Aliza Berger

Keyword(s):

Word Problems ◽

Strategy Selection ◽

Mathematics Word Problems

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Anticipated ambiguity prolongs the present: Evidence of a return trip effect.

Journal of Experimental Psychology General ◽

10.1037/xge0000228 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 145 (11) ◽

pp. 1415-1419 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Sam J. Maglio ◽

Cherrie Y. N. Kwok

Keyword(s):

Trip Effect ◽

Present Evidence ◽

Return Trip

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Using Connectionist Modules for Decision Support

Methods of Information in Medicine ◽

10.1055/s-0038-1634790 ◽

1990 ◽

Vol 29 (03) ◽

pp. 167-181 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

G. Hripcsak

Keyword(s):

Decision Support ◽

Standard Deviation ◽

Confidence Interval ◽

Posterior Probability ◽

Back Propagation ◽

Connectionist Model ◽

Test Set ◽

The Third ◽

Independent Test ◽

Better Than

AbstractA connectionist model for decision support was constructed out of several back-propagation modules. Manifestations serve as input to the model; they may be real-valued, and the confidence in their measurement may be specified. The model produces as its output the posterior probability of disease. The model was trained on 1,000 cases taken from a simulated underlying population with three conditionally independent manifestations. The first manifestation had a linear relationship between value and posterior probability of disease, the second had a stepped relationship, and the third was normally distributed. An independent test set of 30,000 cases showed that the model was better able to estimate the posterior probability of disease (the standard deviation of residuals was 0.046, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.046-0.047) than a model constructed using logistic regression (with a standard deviation of residuals of 0.062, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.062-0.063). The model fitted the normal and stepped manifestations better than the linear one. It accommodated intermediate levels of confidence well.

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Influence of the distribution of the shear walls on the seismic response of the buildings

Pollack Periodica ◽

10.1556/606.2020.15.1.4 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 15 (1) ◽

pp. 37-44

Author(s):

El Mehdi Echebba ◽

Hasnae Boubel ◽

Oumnia Elmrabet ◽

Mohamed Rougui

Keyword(s):

Structural Analysis ◽

Seismic Response ◽

Natural Frequency ◽

Structural Design ◽

Structural Response ◽

Shear Walls ◽

Structural Elements ◽

Analysis Software ◽

Ansys Apdl ◽

The Impact

Abstract In this paper, an evaluation was tried for the impact of structural design on structural response. Several situations are foreseen as the possibilities of changing the distribution of the structural elements (sails, columns, etc.), the width of the structure and the number of floors indicates the adapted type of bracing for a given structure by referring only to its Geometric dimensions. This was done by studying the effect of the technical design of the building on the natural frequency of the structure with the study of the influence of the distribution of the structural elements on the seismic response of the building, taking into account of the requirements of the Moroccan earthquake regulations 2000/2011 and using the ANSYS APDL and Robot Structural Analysis software.

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