scholarly journals What can the conjunction fallacy tell us about human reasoning?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katya Tentori
Keyword(s):  
Posterior Probability ◽  
Probabilistic Reasoning ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Conjunction Fallacy ◽  
Human Reasoning ◽  
Open Issue ◽  
Reasoning Errors

In this chapter, I will briefly summarize and discuss the main results obtained from more than three decades of studies on the conjunction fallacy (hereafter CF) and will argue that this striking and widely debated reasoning error is a robust phenomenon that can systematically affect laypeople’s as much as experts’ probabilistic inferences, with potentially relevant real-life consequences. I will then introduce what is, in my view, the best explanation for the CF and indicate how it allows the reconciliation of some classic probabilistic reasoning errors with the outstanding reasoning performances that humans have been shown capable of. Finally, I will tackle the open issue of the greater accuracy and reliability of evidential impact assessments over those of posterior probability and outline how further research on this topic might also contribute to the development of effective human-like computing.

scholarly journals What Can the Conjunction Fallacy Tell Us about Human Reasoning?

2021 ◽  
pp. 449-464
Author(s):  
Katya Tentori
Keyword(s):  
Posterior Probability ◽  
Conjunction Fallacy ◽  
Evidential Reasoning ◽  
Human Reasoning ◽  
Confirmation Theory ◽  
Bayesian Confirmation Theory ◽  
Probability Judgments ◽  
Bayesian Confirmation ◽  
Open Issue

This chapter briefly summarizes some the main results obtained from more than three decades of studies on the conjunction fallacy. It shows that this striking and widely discussed reasoning error is a robust phenomenon that can systematically affect the probabilistic inferences of both laypeople and experts, and it introduces an explanation based on the notion of evidential impact in terms of contemporary Bayesian confirmation theory. Finally, the chapter tackles the open issue of the greater accuracy and reliability of impact assessments over posterior probability judgments and outlines how further research on the role of evidential reasoning in the acceptability of explanations might contribute to the development of effective human-like computing.

Foundry Data Analytics to Identify Critical Parameters Affecting Mechanical Properties of Investment Castings

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amit Sata ◽  
B. Ravi
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Properties ◽  
Posterior Probability ◽  
Cast Alloy ◽  
Input Parameter ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Critical Parameters ◽  
Real Life Data ◽  
Data Analytic ◽  
Range Of Values ◽  
Cast Parts

Besides shape fidelity and internal soundness, mechanical properties have become critical acceptance criteria for investment cast parts. These properties are mainly driven by the chemical composition of cast alloy as well as process parameters. It is however, difficult to identify the most critical parameters and their specific values influencing the mechanical properties. This is achieved in the present work by employing foundry data analytic based on Bayesian inference to compute the values of posterior probability for each input parameter. This is demonstrated on real-life data collected from an industrial foundry. Controlling the identified parameters within the specific range of values resulted in improved mechanical properties. Unlike computer simulation, artificial neural networks and statistical methods explored by earlier researchers, the proposed approach is easy to implement in industry for controlling and optimizing the parameters to achieve the desired range of mechanical properties. The current work also shows the way forward for building similar systems for other casting and manufacturing processes.

scholarly journals Implementing Adaptive Voltage Over-Scaling: Algorithmic Noise Tolerance vs. Approximate Error Detection

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Giorgio Rizzo ◽  
Andrea Calimera
Keyword(s):  
Error Detection ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Cmos Technology ◽  
Approximate Computing ◽  
Noise Tolerance ◽  
Detection Mechanism ◽  
Quality Of Results ◽  
Timing Speculation ◽  
Open Issue

Adaptive Voltage Over-Scaling can be applied at run-time to reach the best tradeoff between quality of results and energy consumption. This strategy encompasses the concept of timing speculation through some level of approximation. How and on which part of the circuit to implement such approximation is an open issue. This work introduces a quantitative comparison between two complementary strategies: Algorithmic Noise Tolerance and Approximate Error Detection. The first implements a timing speculation by means approximate computing, while the latter exploits a more sophisticated approach that is based on the approximation of the error detection mechanism. The aim of this study was to provide both a qualitative and quantitative analysis on two real-life digital circuits mapped onto a state-of-the-art 28-nm CMOS technology.

scholarly journals Indirect illusory inferences from disjunction: a new bridge between deductive inference and representativeness

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathias Sablé-Meyer ◽  
Salvador Mascarenhas
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Reasoning ◽  
Broad Class ◽  
Structural Similarity ◽  
Conjunction Fallacy ◽  
Behavioral Experiments ◽  
Bayesian Confirmation Theory ◽  
Matching Procedure ◽  
Structural Connection ◽  
Illusory Inferences ◽  
Fallacious Reasoning

We provide a new link between deductive and probabilistic reasoning fallacies. Illusory inferences from disjunction are a broad class of deductive fallacies traditionally explained by recourse to a matching procedure that looks for content overlap between premises. In two behavioral experiments, we show that this phenomenon is instead sensitive to real-world causal dependencies and not to exact content overlap. A group of participants rated the strength of the causal dependence between pairs of sentences. This measure is a near perfect predictor of fallacious reasoning by an independent group of participants in illusory inference tasks with the same materials. In light of these results, we argue that all extant accounts of these deductive fallacies require non-trivial adjustments. Crucially, these novel indirect illusory inferences from disjunction bear a structural similarity to seemingly unrelated probabilistic reasoning problems, in particular the conjunction fallacy from the heuristics and biases literature. This structural connection was entirely obscure in previous work on these deductive problems, due to the theoretical and empirical focus on content overlap. We argue that this structural parallelism provides arguments against the need for rich descriptions and individuating information in the conjunction fallacy, and we outline a unified theory of deductive illusory inferences from disjunction and the conjunction fallacy, in terms of Bayesian confirmation theory.

Multidimensional Probabilistic Reasoning With Novel and Socially Based Stimuli: The Disappearing Conjunction Fallacy

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel H. Barch ◽  
Richard A. Chechile ◽  
Jennifer Schultz ◽  
Brianna A. Smith ◽  
Samuel A. Sommers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Reasoning ◽  
Conjunction Fallacy

Understanding reasoning: Let's describe what we really think about

2011 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 269-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Sternberg
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Everyday Life ◽  
Deductive Reasoning ◽  
Inductive Reasoning ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Human Reasoning ◽  
Ecological Relevance ◽  
Target Article ◽  
Life Decision

AbstractI suggest psychologists would more profitably study a totally different area of human reasoning than is discussed in the target article – the inductive reasoning people use in their everyday life that matters in consequential real-life decision making, rather than the deductive reasoning that psychologists have studied meticulously but that has relatively less ecological relevance to people's lives.

scholarly journals The differential effects of good luck belief on cognitive performance in boys and girls

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-119
Author(s):  
Lenka Kostovičová
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Performance ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Probabilistic Reasoning ◽  
Experimental Manipulation ◽  
Conjunction Fallacy ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Good Luck ◽  
Future Success ◽  
Motor Dexterity ◽  
Cognitive Problems

There is evidence that inducing a luck-related superstition leads to better performance on a variety of motor dexterity and cognitive tasks. However, some replication efforts have failed to succeed. At the same time, our previous findings suggest that the effect of good luck belief on cognitive performance interacts with gender. The present research aimed at replicating the study with a sample of adolescents among whom the superstitious beliefs are particularly prevalent. The participants (N = 99) were allocated to either a control or experimental group, and were asked to solve eight problems focused on cognitive reflection, conjunction fallacy, denominator neglect, and probabilistic reasoning. The experimental manipulation negatively affected boys' performance. Yet, it facilitated performance in girls via increase in their self-efficacy, measured as subjective estimate of future success in the tasks. Thus, gender seems to moderate the effect of luck-related belief on solutions to cognitive problems, which are an important part of our day-to-day decisions. Given initial gender gap in the present tasks, the crucial question to be addressed in future research is possibility of gender being a proxy for prior competence. It would imply that good luck beliefs might help low scorers, for instance in becoming less anxious and more confident, but could be harmful for high scorers.

How to elicit sound probabilistic reasoning: Beyond word problems

2007 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 268-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vittorio Girotto ◽  
Michel Gonzalez
Keyword(s):  
Natural Frequency ◽  
Word Problems ◽  
Posterior Probability ◽  
Probabilistic Reasoning ◽  
Fundamental Question ◽  
Present Evidence ◽  
Numerical Judgment

AbstractBarbey & Sloman (B&S) conclude that natural frequency theorists have raised a fundamental question: What are the conditions that compel individuals to reason extensionally? We argue that word problems asking for a numerical judgment used by these theorists cannot answer this question. We present evidence that nonverbal tasks can elicit correct intuitions of posterior probability even in preschoolers.

scholarly journals PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF THE IOPES SEAMLESS INDOOR-OUTDOOR POSITIONING APPROACH

2021 ◽  
Vol XLIII-B4-2021 ◽  
pp. 229-235
Author(s):  
E. Angelats ◽  
P. F. Espín-López ◽  
J. A. Navarro ◽  
M. E. Parés
Keyword(s):  
Performance Analysis ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Indoor Positioning ◽  
Civil Protection ◽  
The Third ◽  
Combined Solution ◽  
Open Issue ◽  
Performance Results ◽  
Operational Aspects

Abstract. Tracking the members of civil protection or emergency teams is still an open issue. Although outdoors tracking is routinely performed using well-seasoned techniques such as GNSS, this same problem must be still solved for indoors situations. There exist several approaches for indoor positioning, but these are not appropriate for tracking emergency staff in real-time: some of these approaches rely on existing infrastructures; others have not been tested in light devices in real-time; none offers a combined solution. The IOPES project seeks to solve or at least alleviate this problem by building a portable, unobtrusive, lightweight device combining GNSS for outdoor positioning and visual-inertial odometry / SLAM for the indoors case. This work, the third of the IOPES series, presents the analysis of the performance results obtained after developing and testing the first IOPES prototype. To do it, the operational aspects of the prototype, the real-life scenarios where the tests took place and the actual results thus obtained are described.

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