A prediction model of vessel trajectory based on generative adversarial network

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Senjie Wang ◽  
Zhengwei He
Keyword(s):  
Safety Management ◽  
Route Planning ◽  
Local Area ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Generative Adversarial Network ◽  
Ship Traffic ◽  
Adversarial Network ◽  
Historical Trajectory ◽  
Vessel Motion

Abstract Trajectory prediction is an important support for analysing the vessel motion behaviour, judging the vessel traffic risk and collision avoidance route planning of intelligent ships. To improve the accuracy of trajectory prediction in complex situations, a Generative Adversarial Network with Attention Module and Interaction Module (GAN-AI) is proposed to predict the trajectories of multiple vessels. Firstly, GAN-AI can infer all vessels’ future trajectories simultaneously when in the same local area. Secondly, GAN-AI is based on adversarial architecture and trained by competition for better convergence. Thirdly, an interactive module is designed to extract the group motion features of the multiple vessels, to achieve better performance at the ship encounter situations. GAN-AI has been tested on the historical trajectory data of Zhoushan port in China; the experimental results show that the GAN-AI model improves the prediction accuracy by 20%, 24% and 72% compared with sequence to sequence (seq2seq), plain GAN, and the Kalman model. It is of great significance to improve the safety management level of the vessel traffic service system and judge the degree of ship traffic risk.

scholarly journals Vehicle trajectory prediction and generation using LSTM models and GANs

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. e0253868
Author(s):  
Luca Rossi ◽  
Andrea Ajmar ◽  
Marina Paolanti ◽  
Roberto Pierdicca
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Congestion ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Autonomous Driving ◽  
Generative Models ◽  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Generative Adversarial Network ◽  
Displacement Error ◽  
Adversarial Network ◽  
Vehicle Trajectories ◽  
Vehicle Trajectory

Vehicles’ trajectory prediction is a topic with growing interest in recent years, as there are applications in several domains ranging from autonomous driving to traffic congestion prediction and urban planning. Predicting trajectories starting from Floating Car Data (FCD) is a complex task that comes with different challenges, namely Vehicle to Infrastructure (V2I) interaction, Vehicle to Vehicle (V2V) interaction, multimodality, and generalizability. These challenges, especially, have not been completely explored by state-of-the-art works. In particular, multimodality and generalizability have been neglected the most, and this work attempts to fill this gap by proposing and defining new datasets, metrics, and methods to help understand and predict vehicle trajectories. We propose and compare Deep Learning models based on Long Short-Term Memory and Generative Adversarial Network architectures; in particular, our GAN-3 model can be used to generate multiple predictions in multimodal scenarios. These approaches are evaluated with our newly proposed error metrics N-ADE and N-FDE, which normalize some biases in the standard Average Displacement Error (ADE) and Final Displacement Error (FDE) metrics. Experiments have been conducted using newly collected datasets in four large Italian cities (Rome, Milan, Naples, and Turin), considering different trajectory lengths to analyze error growth over a larger number of time-steps. The results prove that, although LSTM-based models are superior in unimodal scenarios, generative models perform best in those where the effects of multimodality are higher. Space-time and geographical analysis are performed, to prove the suitability of the proposed methodology for real cases and management services.

scholarly journals A Real-Time Trajectory Prediction Method of Small-Scale Quadrotors Based on GPS Data and Neural Network

Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (24) ◽  
pp. 7061
Author(s):  
Zhao Yang ◽  
Rong Tang ◽  
Jie Bao ◽  
Jiahuan Lu ◽  
Zhijie Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Trajectory Prediction ◽  
Unit Model ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Historical Trajectory ◽  
Gated Recurrent Unit

This paper proposes a real-time trajectory prediction method for quadrotors based on a bidirectional gated recurrent unit model. Historical trajectory data of ten types of quadrotors were obtained. The bidirectional gated recurrent units were constructed and utilized to learn the historic data. The prediction results were compared with the traditional gated recurrent unit method to test its prediction performance. The efficiency of the proposed algorithm was investigated by comparing the training loss and training time. The results over the testing datasets showed that the proposed model produced better prediction results than the baseline models for all scenarios of the testing datasets. It was also found that the proposed model can converge to a stable state faster than the traditional gated recurrent unit model. Moreover, various types of training samples were applied and compared. With the same randomly selected test datasets, the performance of the prediction model can be improved by selecting the historical trajectory samples of the quadrotors close to the weight or volume of the target quadrotor for training. In addition, the performance of stable trajectory samples is significantly better than that with unstable trajectory segments with a frequent change of speed and direction with large angles.

scholarly journals Automatic Discovery of Railway Train Driving Modes Using Unsupervised Deep Learning

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 294
Author(s):  
Han Zheng ◽  
Zanyang Cui ◽  
Xingchen Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Unsupervised Learning ◽  
Capacity Utilization ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Generative Adversarial Network ◽  
Automatic Driving ◽  
Adversarial Network ◽  
Classical Models ◽  
Unsupervised Deep Learning

Driving modes play vital roles in understanding the stochastic nature of a railway system and can support studies of automatic driving and capacity utilization optimization. Integrated trajectory data containing information such as GPS trajectories and gear changes can be good proxies in the study of driving modes. However, in the absence of labeled data, discovering driving modes is challenging. In this paper, instead of classical models (railway-specified feature extraction and classical clustering), we used five deep unsupervised learning models to overcome this difficulty. In these models, adversarial autoencoders and stacked autoencoders are used as feature extractors, along with generative adversarial network-based and Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence-based networks as clustering models. An experiment based on real and artificial datasets showed the following: (i) The proposed deep learning models outperform the classical models by 27.64% on average. (ii) Integrated trajectory data can improve the accuracy of unsupervised learning by approximately 13.78%. (iii) The different performance rankings of models based on indices with labeled data and indices without labeled data demonstrate the insufficiency of people’s understanding of the existing modes. This study also analyzes the relationship between the discovered modes and railway carrying capacity.

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