Forecasting Congressional Elections Using Facebook Data

2015 ◽  
Vol 48 (04) ◽  
pp. 579-583 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew C. MacWilliams
Keyword(s):  
Congressional Elections ◽  
National Election ◽  
Election Forecasting ◽  
Congressional Campaigns ◽  
Exploratory Investigation ◽  
Reliable Model ◽  
Us Senate

ABSTRACTFacebook constantly tracks the growth of each congressional candidate’s fan base and the number of people engaging with candidates online. These Facebook metrics comprise a rich dataset that theoretically may capture the effectiveness of campaigns in building participatory support as well as their potential to mobilize support. When added to electoral fundamentals similar to those used in national-election forecasting, can Facebook data be used to develop a reliable model for predicting vote-percentage outcomes of individual congressional contests? The results of an exploratory investigation reveal that fan participation and mobilization metrics tracked by Facebook produced surprisingly accurate election predictions in the 2012 US Senate races studied. The question remains, however, whether these results are a “flash in the 2012 pan” or an indication that using Facebook statistics to measure campaign effectiveness is a new tool that scholars can use to forecast the outcome of congressional campaigns.

Campaign Communications in U.S. Congressional Elections

2009 ◽  
Vol 103 (3) ◽  
pp. 343-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
JAMES N. DRUCKMAN ◽  
MARTIN J. KIFER ◽  
MICHAEL PARKIN
Keyword(s):  
Web Sites ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Democratic Governance ◽  
Newspaper Coverage ◽  
Rhetorical Strategies ◽  
Complete Understanding ◽  
Negative Campaigning ◽  
Electoral Campaigns ◽  
Congressional Campaigns ◽  
Advance Research

Electoral campaigns are the foundation of democratic governance; yet scholarship on the content of campaign communications remains underdeveloped. In this paper, we advance research on U.S. congressional campaigns by integrating and extending extant theories of campaign communication. We test the resulting predictions with a novel dataset based on candidate Web sites over three election cycles. Unlike television advertisements or newspaper coverage, Web sites provide an unmediated, holistic, and representative portrait of campaigns. We find that incumbents and challengers differ across a broad range of behavior that reflects varying attitudes toward risk, that incumbents’ strategies depend on the competitiveness of the race, and that candidates link negative campaigning to other aspects of their rhetorical strategies. Our efforts provide researchers with a basis for moving toward a more complete understanding of congressional campaigns.

Usage and performance of bellwether polls for election forecasting

2018 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 132-146
Author(s):  
Elizabeth J Wilson ◽  
David A Paleologos
Keyword(s):  
Open Source ◽  
Large Area ◽  
Election Forecasting ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Clear Winner ◽  
Senate Election ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
Improving Accuracy

A non-traditional methodology of polling in small areas, called bellwethers, improves the accuracy of forecasts drawn from a large area. Bellwether areas are small government units (such as cities or counties) which exhibit voting patterns close to actual election outcomes in the larger areas of which they are a part (such as states). The bellwether methodology of one polling organization is described in detail using data from the 2012 US Senate election in Massachusetts. An overview of the performance of the bellwether methodology is provided. In use at Suffolk University Political Research Center since 2003, bellwethers combined with state polls correctly forecast election outcomes in 97% of trials where a clear winner could be determined (i.e., no ties). The contribution of this work is to offer an open-source methodology for improving accuracy in election forecasting.

Using Wikipedia to Predict Election Outcomes

2017 ◽  
Vol 81 (3) ◽  
pp. 714-735 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin K. Smith ◽  
Abel Gustafson
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Information Seeking ◽  
Online Information ◽  
Election Forecasting ◽  
Seeking Behavior ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
Online Information Seeking

Abstract This study seeks to improve election forecasting by supplementing polling data with online information-seeking behavior trends as an indicator of public opinion. Aggregate trends of demonstrations of interest or engagement have been shown to accurately predict behavior trends and reflect public opinion. Further, because traditional poll-based predictions are inherently undermined by self-reporting biases and the intention-behavior disconnect, we can expect that information-seeking trends on widely used social media—as an autonomous and unobtrusive indicator of relative levels of public opinion—can help correct for some of this error and explain unique, additional variance in election results. We advance the literature by using data from Wikipedia pageviews along with polling data in a synthesized model based on the results of the 2008, 2010, and 2012 US Senate general elections. Results show that Wikipedia pageviews data significantly add to the ability of poll- and fundamentals-based projections to predict election results up to 28 weeks prior to Election Day, and benefit predictions most at those early points, when poll-based predictions are weakest.

1874: Diminishing Republican Power

2008 ◽  
pp. 155-162
Author(s):  
John Roy Lynch
Keyword(s):  
Congressional Elections ◽  
National Election ◽  
The State ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Other

This chapter examines the diminishing Republican power. The Mississippi Constitution, having been ratified in 1869, an odd year of the calendar, caused the regular elections for state, district, and county officers to occur on the odd years of the calendar, while the national election occurred on the even years of the calendar, thus necessitating the holding of an election in the state every year. No election was to be held in 1874, therefore, except to choose members of Congress and to fill a few vacancies. The regular election for county officers and members of the legislature would be held in 1875. From a Republican point of view, Mississippi, as was true of the other reconstructed states, up to 1875 was all that could be expected and desired and no doubt would have remained so for many years but for the unexpected results of the state and congressional elections of 1874.

Candidates and Parties in Congressional Elections

1980 ◽  
Vol 74 (3) ◽  
pp. 617-632 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas E. Mann ◽  
Raymond E. Wolfinger
Keyword(s):  
Public Awareness ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
National Election ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Congressional Voting ◽  
National Election Study

The 1978 CPS national election study, which includes many new questions about congressional candidates, is analyzed to discern what voters know about congressional candidates and why House incumbents are so successful at getting reelected by wide margins. Scholars have underestimated the level of public awareness of congressional candidates, primarily because of faulty measures. Voters are often able to recognize and evaluate individual candidates without being able to recall their names from memory. Incumbents are both better known and better liked than challengers, largely because they have the resources enabling them to communicate with their constituents frequently and directly. Yet the seriousness of the challenger is equally important for understanding the advantages of incumbency and why incumbency is less valuable in the Senate than in the House. Finally, public assessments of the president provide a national dynamic to congressional voting, but the effect is modest compared to the salience of the local choices.

Do Unions Still Matter in U.S. Elections? Assessing Labor's Political Power and Significance

The Forum ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter L. Francia
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Union Membership ◽  
Labor Movement ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
National Election ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
To Come ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Democratic Vote ◽  
The U.S

Popular accounts of the labor movement often suggest that unions are in decline. While there have been sharp declines in union membership as a percentage of the workforce, this study presents evidence that organized labor’s influence in the U.S. elections remains significant. Using data from the American National Election Study and the National Election Pool, the results in this study demonstrate: (1) union households, despite drops in union membership as a percentage of the workforce, have remained a sizeable percentage of the U.S electorate, especially in regions outside of the South; (2) unions boost voter turnout, including among those from traditionally underrepresented demographics; and (3) unions continue to produce a strong Democratic vote in presidential and congressional elections, and boost the Democratic vote among middle-income whites – a critical “swing” constituency. In total, these results suggest that the future strength or weakness of the labor movement is likely to have significant implications for upcoming election outcomes, the party coalitions that ultimately form for future Democratic and Republican candidates, and how representative the electorate will be relative to the population in years to come.

1872: Election to Congress

2008 ◽  
pp. 99-106
Author(s):  
John Roy Lynch
Keyword(s):  
Political History ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
National Election ◽  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Congressional District ◽  
History Of ◽  
Republican Nomination

This chapter shows how 1872 was an important year in the political history of the state and nation. It was the year of the presidential and congressional elections. This was the first national election that Mississippi was to take part in since the readmission of the state into the Union. Immediately upon John Roy Lynch's return to the state, the contest for the Republican nomination for Congress in the Sixth District was opened. His friends had decided that this was the time for him to go to Congress. After a warm and exciting campaign, extending over a period of about one month, the primaries in the different voting precincts were held which resulted in a sweeping victory for the Lynch ticket, which enabled that faction to send a solid delegation to the congressional district convention. This made Lynch the nominee of the party for Congress in that district, without further serious opposition. The district convention was held at Brookhaven in August. Lynch reached the constitutional age of eligibility in September and was elected in November of the same year.

scholarly journals Forecasting National Turnout at British General Elections: Combining Polls and Structural Models

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Murr ◽  
Simon Munzert
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Structural Models ◽  
National Election ◽  
Election Forecasting ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
General Elections ◽  
British Case ◽  
Combined Forecasts

National election forecasting has become most developed for vote and seat shares as well as winners of elections. These election outcomes are usually forecasted by voter intention polls, structural models, or a combination of the two. For voter turnout, election forecasts come almost exclusively from likelihood-to-vote polls. We develop a structural model of turnout for the British case, and then combine it with likelihood-to-vote polls. We compare poll, structural, and combined forecasts in out-of-sample tests of 18 British general elections from 1951 to 2017. Compared to the polls, the structural model forecasts more accurately, and combining the polls with the structural model increases accuracy even further.

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