scholarly journals EXPECTATIONS, CREDIBILITY, AND TIME-CONSISTENT MONETARY POLICY

2000 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 448-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter N. Ireland
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Multiple Equilibria ◽  
Monetary Authority ◽  
Milton Friedman ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Unique Steady State

This paper addresses the problem of multiple equilibria in a model of time-consistent monetary policy. It suggests that this problem originates in the assumption that agents have rational expectations and proposes several alternative restrictions on expectations that allow the monetary authority to build credibility for a disinflationary policy by demonstrating that it will stick to that policy even if it imposes short-run costs on the economy. Starting with these restrictions, the paper derives conditions that guarantee the uniqueness of the model's steady state; monetary policy in this unique steady state involves the constant deflation advocated by Milton Friedman.

scholarly journals INTEREST RATE RULES AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY UNDER HETEROGENEOUS EXPECTATIONS

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 1574-1604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail Anufriev ◽  
Tiziana Assenza ◽  
Cars Hommes ◽  
Domenico Massaro
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Multiple Equilibria ◽  
Monetary Authority ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Inflation Dynamics ◽  
Interest Rate Rules ◽  
Heterogeneous Expectations ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Interest Rate

The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a simple frictionless dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous expectations, and update their beliefs based on past performance, as in Brock and Hommes [Econometrica65(5), 1059–1095 (1997)]. The stabilizing effect of different monetary policies depends on the ecology of forecasting rules (i.e., the composition of the set of predictors), on agents' sensitivity to differences in forecasting performance, and on how aggressively the monetary authority sets the nominal interest rate in response to inflation. In particular, if the monetary authority responds only weakly to inflation, a cumulative process with rising inflation is likely. On the other hand, a Taylor interest rate rule that sets the interest rate more than point for point in response to inflation stabilizes inflation dynamics, but does not always lead the system to converge to the rational expectations equilibrium, as multiple equilibria may persist.

scholarly journals Learning as a Rational Foundation for Macroeconomics and Finance

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
George W. Evans ◽  
Seppo Honkapohja
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Learning Approach ◽  
Expectation Formation

This chapter examines the central ideas about learning and bounded rationality for macroeconomics and finance. It first introduces the main methodological issues concerning expectation formation and learning before discussing the circumstances in which rational expectations may arise. It then reviews empirical work that applies learning to macroeconomic issues and asset prices, along with the implications of the use of structural knowledge in learning and the form of the agents' decision rules. As an application, the scope of Ricardian Equivalence is considered. The chapter also presents three applications of the learning approach to monetary policy: the appropriate specification of interest rate rules; implementation of price-level targeting to achieve learning stability of the optimal rational expectations equilibrium; and whether under learning, commitment to price-level targeting can be sufficient to rule out the deflation trap of a zero interest rate lower bound and return the economy to the intended rational expectations steady state.

HETEROGENEOUS EXPECTATIONS AND ENDOGENOUS FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FINANCIAL ACCELERATOR FRAMEWORK

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 327-359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Bazzana
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
System Stability ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Financial Accelerator ◽  
Macroeconomic Dynamics ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
Macroeconomic Volatility ◽  
Less Is More

This paper proposes a financial accelerator framework to study the effects of heterogeneous and bounded rational expectations on macroeconomic dynamics. The paper examines the fluctuations effects departing from the rational expectations hypothesis in order to understand if there are significant implications on macroeconomic volatility and policy prescriptions. The findings suggest that macroeconomic stability and inflation dynamics depend on the chosen set of forecasting rules, as well as on the monetary policy adopted. The model shows that no monetary policy is able to quickly stabilize the system, as some fluctuations persist. Central banks face a trade-off between macro-volatility and speed of convergence to the steady state. This result offers some ground for fiscal policies aiming to prompt system stability. In addition, the analysis reveals a counterintuitive result confirming the “less-is-more” effect: increasing the decision-making and computational abilities of the agents may not lead the system to converge to the preferable steady state.

The Role of Different Channels in Transmitting Monetary Policy into Output and Price in Vietnam

2015 ◽  
pp. 20-40
Author(s):  
Vinh Nguyen Thi Thuy
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

The paper investigates the mechanism of monetary transmission in Vietnam through different channels - namely the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel, the asset channel and the credit channel for the period January 1995 - October 2009. This study applies VAR analysis to evaluate the monetary transmission mechanisms to output and price level. To compare the relative importance of different channels for transmitting monetary policy, the paper estimates the impulse response functions and variance decompositions of variables. The empirical results show that the changes in money supply have a significant impact on output rather than price in the short run. The impacts of money supply on price and output are stronger through the exchange rate and credit channels, but however, are weaker through the interest rate channel. The impacts of monetary policy on output and inflation may be erroneous through the equity price channel because of the lack of an established and well-functioning stock market.

scholarly journals A SUNSPOT-BASED THEORY OF UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
Roger E. A. Farmer ◽  
Pawel Zabczyk
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Efficient Outcome ◽  
Complete Set ◽  
Pareto Efficient ◽  
Financial Securities

This paper is about the effectiveness of qualitative easing, a form of unconventional monetary policy that changes the risk composition of the central bank balance sheet. We construct a general equilibrium model where agents have rational expectations, and there is a complete set of financial securities, but where some agents are unable to participate in financial markets. We show that a change in the risk composition of the central bank’s balance sheet affects equilibrium asset prices and economic activity. We prove that, in our model, a policy in which the central bank stabilizes non-fundamental fluctuations in the stock market is self-financing and leads to a Pareto efficient outcome.

scholarly journals Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations

1977 ◽  
Vol 85 (1) ◽  
pp. 163-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmund S. Phelps ◽  
John B. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Rational Expectations

Natural disasters and monetary policy: evidence from an augmented Taylor rule

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Apergis ◽  
James E. Payne
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Nominal Interest Rate ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the short-run monetary policy response to five different types of natural disasters (geophysical, meteorological, hydrological, climatological and biological) with respect to developed and developing countries, respectively. Design/methodology/approach An augmented Taylor rule monetary policy model is estimated using systems generalized method of moments panel estimation over the period 2000–2018 for a panel of 40 developed and 77 developing countries, respectively. Findings In the case of developed countries, the greatest nominal interest rate response originates from geophysical, meteorological, hydrological and climatological disasters, whereas for developing countries the nominal interest rate response is the greatest for geophysical and meteorological disasters. For both developed and developing countries, the results suggest the monetary authorities will pursue expansionary monetary policies in the short-run to lower nominal interest rates; however, the magnitude of the monetary response varies across the type of natural disaster. Originality/value First, unlike previous studies, which focused on a specific type of natural disaster, this study examines whether the short-run monetary policy response differs across the type of natural disaster. Second, in relation to previous studies, the analysis encompasses a much larger panel data set to include 117 countries differentiated between developed and developing countries.

scholarly journals THE RICH AND THE POOR IN A SIMPLE MODEL OF GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 1934-1952 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirill Borissov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
State Equilibrium ◽  
Positional Concerns ◽  
The Poor ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Intertemporal Equilibrium ◽  
Unique Steady State

We consider a model of economic growth with altruistic agents who care about their consumption and the disposable income of their offspring. The agents' consumption and the offspring's disposable income are subject to positional concerns. We show that, if the measure of consumption-related positional concerns is sufficiently low and/or the measure of offspring-related positional concerns is sufficiently high, then there is a unique steady-state equilibrium, which is characterized by perfect income and wealth equality, and all intertemporal equilibira converge to it. Otherwise, in steady-state equilibria, the population splits into two classes, the rich and the poor; under this scenario, in any intertemporal equilibrium, all capital is eventually owned by the households that were the wealthiest from the outset and all other households become poor.

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