A NOTE ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTERVENTIONS AT ZERO INTEREST RATES

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 802-817 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shigeru Iwata ◽  
Shu Wu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Instrument ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Working Paper ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
Rate Environment ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This note uses a nonlinear structural vector autoregression model to empirically investigate the effectiveness of official foreign exchange (FX) interventions in an economy when interest rates are constrained to the zero level, based on Japanese data in the 1990s. The model allows us to estimate the effects of FX interventions operating through different channels. We find that FX interventions are still capable of influencing the foreign exchange rate in a zero-interest-rate environment, even though their effects are greatly reduced by the zero lower bound on interest rates. Our results suggest that although it might be feasible to use the exchange rate as an alternative monetary policy instrument at zero interest rates as proposed by McCallum (Inflation Targeting and the Liquidity Trap, NBER working paper 8225, 2000), the exchange rate–based Taylor rule may not be very effective in achieving the ultimate policy goals.

scholarly journals Key Policy Rate as the Main or Additional Instrument of Inflation Targeting Strategy in Serbia

2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Srđan Furtula ◽  
Milan Kostić
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Great Influence ◽  
Policy Instrument ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Key Policy ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Republic

AbstractIn achieving price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy, the National Bank of Serbia uses the key policy rate as the main instrument of monetary policy, while other instruments have a supporting role - contribute to a smooth transmission of the key policy rate on the market, as well as the development of financial markets. However, because the conditions in which economic and financial system of the Republic of Serbia works, transmission mechanism of monetary policy is conducted mainly through the exchange rate channel, while the channel of interest rates almost did not work. The great impact the exchange rate channel is determined by the great influence of the single currency euro and the ECB on our country. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to analyse the efficiency of the key policy rate as a monetary policy instrument, because in recent years the primary instrument receives a secondary character in the monetary regulation.

scholarly journals The Effectiveness of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Ukraine since the Transition to Inflation Targeting

2019 ◽  
pp. 19-37
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Zholud ◽  
Volodymyr Lepushynskyi ◽  
Sergiy Nikolaychuk
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of monetary transmission channels in Ukraine since the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) transitioned to inflation targeting and after the central bank established its new approach to monetary policy implementation. The authors conclude that the central bank has sufficient control over short-term interest rates in the interbank market and that it uses them to influence other financial market indicators. At the same time, further transmission via the interest rate channel is constrained by weak lending and the banking system’s slow post-crisis recovery. The exchange rate channel remains the most powerful avenue of monetary transmission. After the NBU switched to a floating exchange rate and an active interest rate policy, its key rate became a means of influencing exchange rates. The exchange rate channel’s leading role is expected to gradually decrease but remains important, as is typical for small open economies.

Modelling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Framework

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaromir Benes ◽  
Andrew Berg ◽  
Rafael Portillo ◽  
David Vavra
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Balance Sheet Effects ◽  
Exchange Rate Management ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The authors study a wide range of hybrid inflation-targeting (IT) and managed exchange rate regimes, analysing their implications for inflation, output and the exchange rate in the presence of various domestic and external shocks. To this end, the chapter presents an open economy New Keynesian model featuring sterilized interventions in the foreign exchange (FX) market as an additional central bank instrument operating alongside the Taylor rule, and affecting the economy through portfolio balance sheet effects in the financial sector. The chapter shows that there can be advantages to combining IT with some degree of exchange rate management via FX interventions. Unlike ‘pure’ IT or exchange rate management via interest rates, FX interventions can help insulate the economy against certain shocks, especially shocks to international financial conditions. However, managing the exchange rate through FX interventions may also hinder necessary exchange rate adjustments, e.g., in the presence of terms of trade shocks.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE OPTIONS UNDER STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY AND STOCHASTIC INTEREST RATES

2008 ◽  
Vol 11 (03) ◽  
pp. 277-294 ◽  
Author(s):  
REHEZ AHLIP
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Stochastic Interest Rates ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Stochastic Interest ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Inversion Techniques

In this paper, we present a stochastic volatility model with stochastic interest rates in a Foreign Exchange (FX) setting. The instantaneous volatility follows a mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process and is correlated with the exchange rate. The domestic and foreign interest rates are modeled by mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes. The main result is an analytic formula for the price of a European call on the exchange rate. It is derived using martingale methods in arbitrage pricing of contingent claims and Fourier inversion techniques.

scholarly journals Does the Central Bank of Peru Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Bayesian Estimation of a New Keynesian DSGE Model with FX Interventions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Castillo ◽  
Paul Castillo ◽  
Harumi Hasegawa
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This paper assess the role played by the exchange rate and FX intervention in setting monetary policy interest rates in Peru. We estimate a Taylor rule that includes inflation, output gap and the exchange rate using a New Keynesian DSGE model that follows closely Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (2017). The model is extended to include an explicit sterilized FX intervention rule as in Faltermeier et al. (2017). The main empirical results show, for the pre Inflation Targeting (IT) and IT periods, that the model that clearly outperforms in terms of marginal log density, features a Taylor rule that does not respond to changes in the nominal exchange rate and an active use of FX intervention by the Central Bank. We also find that the coefficient associated with the response of the Taylor rule to inflation is close to 2 and the one associated with the output gap is greater than 1; and that FX intervention has become more responsive to exchange rate fluctuations during the IT period. Finally, the estimated IRFs shows that FX intervention has contributed to reduce the volatility of GDP in response to productivity and terms of trade shocks in Peru.

scholarly journals The Dynamics of The Rupiah Exchange Rate in 2017-2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arief Aldila Susanto ◽  
Rr. Retno Retno Sugiharti
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate

<p align="justify">The exchange rate is one of the most important indicators in the economy. Moreover, with the increasing intensity of trade between countries, commonly referred to as international trade, this economic indicator becomes important for every country, including Indonesia. The change in the Indonesian exchange rate system to a free-floating system has made the exchange rate fluctuations more dynamic. The fluctuations are influenced by various factors, both internal and external. This study aims to determine the effect of the money supply (M<sub>2</sub>), foreign exchange reserves, SBI interest rates and world crude oil prices on the rupiah/dollar exchange rate in 2017-2020 both in the short run and in the long run. The data used is monthly time series data from 2017-2020. The analytical method used in this study is the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results in this study indicate that in the short run and long run the money supply and foreign exchange reserves variables have a significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate in 2017-2020.</p>

scholarly journals Pricing FX Options in the Heston/CIR Jump-Diffusion Model with Log-Normal and Log-Uniform Jump Amplitudes

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Rehez Ahlip ◽  
Ante Prodan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Jump Diffusion ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Jump Diffusion Model ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Log Normal ◽  
Instantaneous Volatility

We examine foreign exchange options in the jump-diffusion version of the Heston stochastic volatility model for the exchange rate with log-normal jump amplitudes and the volatility model with log-uniformly distributed jump amplitudes. We assume that the domestic and foreign stochastic interest rates are governed by the CIR dynamics. The instantaneous volatility is correlated with the dynamics of the exchange rate return, whereas the domestic and foreign short-term rates are assumed to be independent of the dynamics of the exchange rate and its volatility. The main result furnishes a semianalytical formula for the price of the foreign exchange European call option.

On the Opportunities, Targets and Mechanisms of Monetary Policy under the Current Conditions

2014 ◽  
pp. 4-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Yudaeva
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Operational Mechanism ◽  
Policy Goals

The paper describes the operational mechanism of monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russian Federation under the inflation targeting regime. Special focus is made on interconnections between interest rates as operational targets, liquidity and foreign exchange interventions. The paper also discusses how monetary policy goals can be formulated in the current environment.

scholarly journals DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN INFLATION TARGETING TERHADAP BEBERAPA VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2007 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yati Nuryati ◽  
Hermanto Siregar ◽  
Anny Ratnawati
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Instrument ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

This paper discusses the effects of the inflation targeting framework on a number of macroeconomic variabels in Indonesia, especially after the enactment of Law No. 23/1999. The objectives of the paper are: (1) to describe the independence aspect of the inflation targeting policy; and (2) to highlight the effects of the inflation targeting on a set of main macroeconomic variables.The anaysis uses the Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach, emploting the time series data during the periode of 1998:1 to 2003:6. The main results of this research are: (1) The Central Bank (BI) independence is not yet effective in the implementation of the inflation targeting; (2) the shock on the interest rate affects price level and the exchange rate trivially; and (2) the factors that influence price’s variability are the base money, the interest rate, and the exchange rate. In the long run, a shock to the base money is more important than to the interest rate and to the exchange rate. The study suggests to use base money as the policy instrument of the monetary policy, instead of the short term interest.Keywords: monetary policy, independence, inflation targeting, VARJEL Classification: C32, E31, E52

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