scholarly journals THE NONLINEAR NATURE OF COUNTRY RISK AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR DSGE MODELS

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 601-628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michał Brzoza-Brzezina ◽  
Jacek Kotłowski
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Country Risk ◽  
Dsge Models ◽  
Macroeconomic Dynamics ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Net Foreign Asset ◽  
Nonlinear Nature

Country risk premia can substantially affect macroeconomic dynamics. We concentrate on one of their most important determinants—a country’s net foreign asset (NFA) position and—in contrast to the existing research—investigate its nonlinear link to risk premia. The importance of this particular nonlinearity is two-fold. First, it allows to identify the NFA level above which the elasticity becomes much (possibly dangerously) higher. Second, such a nonlinear relationship is a standard ingredient of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, but its proper calibration/estimation is missing. Our estimation shows that indeed the link is highly nonlinear and helps to identify the NFA position where the nonlinearity kicks in at approximately −70% to −75% of GDP. We also provide a proper calibration of the risk premium—NFA relationship which can be used in DSGE models and demonstrate that its slope matters significantly for economic dynamics in such a model.

Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward P. Herbst ◽  
Frank Schorfheide
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Sequential Monte Carlo ◽  
Likelihood Function ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Computational Techniques ◽  
Dsge Models ◽  
Monte Carlo Techniques ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become one of the workhorses of modern macroeconomics and are extensively used for academic research as well as forecasting and policy analysis at central banks. This book introduces readers to state-of-the-art computational techniques used in the Bayesian analysis of DSGE models. The book covers Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for linearized DSGE models, novel sequential Monte Carlo methods that can be used for parameter inference, and the estimation of nonlinear DSGE models based on particle filter approximations of the likelihood function. The theoretical foundations of the algorithms are discussed in depth, and detailed empirical applications and numerical illustrations are provided. The book also gives invaluable advice on how to tailor these algorithms to specific applications and assess the accuracy and reliability of the computations. The book is essential reading for graduate students, academic researchers, and practitioners at policy institutions.

Modelling Monetary Policy

2021 ◽  
pp. 293-316
Author(s):  
Juan Antonio Morales ◽  
Paul Reding
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Dsge Models ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Policy Decision Making

This last chapter deals with the toolbox that central banks use to design and implement their monetary policy strategy. Central banks develop various types of model, both for forecasting and for policy analysis. The chapter discusses the main characteristics of the models used, their strengths and limitations. It assesses how dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are used for monetary policy analysis. Examples are provided on how they contribute to explore fundamental, long-term policy issues specific to LFDCs. The chapter also discusses the contribution of small semi-structural models which, though less strongly theory grounded than DSGE models, can be brought closer to the available data and are therefore possibly better suited to the context of LFDCs. Attention is also drawn to the key role of judgement as the indispensable complement, in monetary policy decision-making, to model-based policy analysis.

scholarly journals On DSGE Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 113-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence J. Christiano ◽  
Martin S. Eichenbaum ◽  
Mathias Trabandt
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Policy Change ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Relative Strength ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Dsge Models ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Different Parts

The outcome of any important macroeconomic policy change is the net effect of forces operating on different parts of the economy. A central challenge facing policymakers is how to assess the relative strength of those forces. Economists have a range of tools that can be used to make such assessments. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are the leading tool for making such assessments in an open and transparent manner. We review the state of mainstream DSGE models before the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We then describe how DSGE models are estimated and evaluated. We address the question of why DSGE modelers—like most other economists and policymakers—failed to predict the financial crisis and the Great Recession, and how DSGE modelers responded to the financial crisis and its aftermath. We discuss how current DSGE models are actually used by policymakers. We then provide a brief response to some criticisms of DSGE models, with special emphasis on criticism by Joseph Stiglitz, and offer some concluding remarks.

scholarly journals The Euler equation with habits and measurement errors: Estimates on Russian micro data

2016 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 395-409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina Khvostova ◽  
Alexander Larin ◽  
Anna Novak
Keyword(s):  
Euler Equation ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Dsge Models ◽  
Elasticity Of Intertemporal Substitution ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Lm Test ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Micro Level

This paper presents estimates of the consumption Euler equation for Russia. The estimation is based on micro-level panel data and accounts for the heterogeneity of agents? preferences and measurement errors. The presence of multiplicative habits is checked using the Lagrange multiplier (LM) test in a generalized method of moments (GMM) framework. We obtain estimates of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution and of the subjective discount factor, which are consistent with the theoretical model and can be used for the calibration and the Bayesian estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models for the Russian economy. We also show that the effects of habit formation are not significant. The hypotheses of multiplicative habits (external, internal, and both external and internal) are not supported by the data.

Credit-Market Imperfection and Monetary Policy Within DSGE Models

2021 ◽  
pp. 16-42
Author(s):  
Salha Ben Salem ◽  
Nadia Mansour ◽  
Moez Labidi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Dsge Models ◽  
Taylor Rules ◽  
Credit Market Imperfection ◽  
Credit Cycle ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Financial Market Frictions

This survey presented the various ways that are utilized in the literature to include financial market frictions in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. It focuses on the fundamental issue: to what extent the Taylor rules are optimal when the central bank introduces the goal of financial stability. Indeed, the latest financial crisis shows that the vulnerability of the credit cycle is considered the main source for the amplification of a small transitory shock. This conclusion changed the instrument that drives the transmission of monetary policy through the economy and pushed the policymakers to include financial stability as a second objective of the central bank.

MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY UNDER HIGH ACCUMULATION OF GOVERNMENT DEBT: LESSONS FROM JAPAN

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (supp02) ◽  
pp. 1250057 ◽  
Author(s):  
PAUL D. McNELIS ◽  
NAOYUKI YOSHINO
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
High Accumulation ◽  
Macroeconomic Volatility ◽  
Exchange Rate Dynamics ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

This paper applies Bayesian estimation to an open-economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model of Japan, to assess the effects of expanding government debt on interest rates, real exchange rate dynamics, and real sector performance. We find that the emergence of even a small risk premium on government debt will trigger considerable instability in the real and nominal variables. We show that a switch to an exchange-rate rule for monetary policy would considerably moderate the instability induced by a rising risk premium.

scholarly journals Confidence collapse in a multihousehold, self-reflexive DSGE model

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (17) ◽  
pp. 9244-9249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Guglielmo Morelli ◽  
Michael Benzaquen ◽  
Marco Tarzia ◽  
Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Aggregate Consumption ◽  
Policy Tool ◽  
Steep Decline ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
High Output

We investigate a multihousehold dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which past aggregate consumption impacts the confidence, and therefore consumption propensity, of individual households. We find that such a minimal setup is extremely rich and leads to a variety of realistic output dynamics: high output with no crises; high output with increased volatility and deep, short-lived recessions; and alternation of high- and low-output states where a relatively mild drop in economic conditions can lead to a temporary confidence collapse and steep decline in economic activity. The crisis probability depends exponentially on the parameters of the model, which means that markets cannot efficiently price the associated risk premium. We conclude by stressing that within our framework, narratives become an important monetary policy tool that can help steer the economy back on track.

scholarly journals A NOTE ON AN EXTENSION OF A CLASS OF SOLUTIONS TO DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING PROBLEMS ARISING IN ECONOMIC GROWTH

2011 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 472-476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jürgen Antony ◽  
Alfred Maußner
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Dynamic Programming ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Dsge Models ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Savings Rate ◽  
Dynamics And Control ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
And Control

This note extends the findings of Benhabib and Rusticchini [Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 18, 807–813 (1994)], who provide a class of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models whose solution is characterized by a constant savings rate. We show that this class of models may be interpreted as a standard–representative agent DSGE model with costly adjustment of capital.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Analysis with Potentially Misspecified Models

2009 ◽  
Vol 99 (4) ◽  
pp. 1415-1450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Del Negro ◽  
Frank Schorfheide
Keyword(s):  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Model Misspecification ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Dsge Models ◽  
Estimation Of Parameters ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Misspecified Models ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

Policy analysis with potentially misspecified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models faces two challenges: estimation of parameters that are relevant for policy trade-offs, and treatment of the deviations from the cross-equation restrictions. Using post-1982 US data, we study the robustness of the policy prescriptions from a state-of-the-art DSGE model with respect to two approaches to model misspecification pursued in the recent literature: (i) adding shocks to the DSGE model and/or generalizing the processes followed by these shocks; and (ii) explicit modeling of deviations from cross-equation restrictions (DSGE-VAR). (JEL C51, E13, E43, E52, E58)

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