scholarly journals Projecting future demand for informal care among older people in China: the road towards a sustainable long-term care system

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Hu
Keyword(s):  
Older People ◽  
Informal Care ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Technique ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The Government ◽  
Care System

AbstractThe long-term care system in China relies heavily on informal care provided by family members. This study makes projections on the demand for informal care among Chinese older people between 2015 and 2035 and quantifies the level of long-term care resources needed to meet their needs. The data come from longitudinal information in a nationally representative sample, China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey 2011 and 2013. The macrosimulation approach (PSSRU model) and the Markov approach are integrated into one Bayesian modelling framework. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to capture parameter uncertainty. We project that the demand for informal care will increase from 41.3 million people (95% CI: 39.9–42.7) in 2015 to 82.6 million people (95% CI: 78.3–86.9) in 2035. The long-term care system faces unbalanced pressure of demand for informal care from different groups of older people. The projected demand is sensitive to changes in older people’s disability trajectory and the availability of formal care provided by the government, but less sensitive to an increase in singleton households in the future. We discuss possible policy measures to alleviate the mounting pressure on the demand for informal care.

scholarly journals Future long-term care expenditure in Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom

2006 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 285-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
ADELINA COMAS-HERRERA ◽  
RAPHAEL WITTENBERG ◽  
JOAN COSTA-FONT ◽  
CRISTIANO GORI ◽  
ALESSANDRA DI MAIO ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Older People ◽  
Informal Care ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Future

This paper reports findings from a European Commission funded study of future long-term care expenditure in Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, and presents projections of future long-term care expenditure in the four countries under a number of assumptions about the future. Macro-simulation (or cell-based) models were used to make comparable projections based on a set of common assumptions. A central base-case served as a point of comparison by which to explore the sensitivity of the models to alternative scenarios for the key determinants. The sensitivity of the models to variant assumptions about the future numbers of older people, the prevalence of functional dependency and informal care, patterns of long-term provision, and macroeconomic conditions are examined. It was found that, under the base-case, the proportion of gross domestic product spent on long-term care is projected to more than double between 2000 and 2050 in each country. The projected future demand for long-term care services for older people is sensitive to assumptions about the future number of older people, the prevalence of dependency and the availability of informal care, and projected expenditure is sensitive to assumptions about rises in the real unit-costs of services and the structure of the models. It is important, for planning purposes, to recognise the considerable uncertainty about future levels of long-term care expenditure.

scholarly journals Older People Receiving Public Long-Term Care in Relation to Consumption of Medical Health Care and Informal Care

2008 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Staffan Karlsson ◽  
Anna-Karin Edberg ◽  
Albert Westergren ◽  
Ingalill Rahm Hallberg
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Older People ◽  
Informal Care ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Medical Health Care ◽  
Medical Health

Care by Spouses, Care by Children: Projections of Informal Care for Older People in England to 2031

2007 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 353-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda Pickard ◽  
Raphael Wittenberg ◽  
Adelina Comas-Herrera ◽  
Derek King ◽  
Juliette Malley
Keyword(s):  
Older People ◽  
Informal Care ◽  
Adult Children ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Patterns Of Care ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Term Care ◽  
If Current ◽  
Care For Older People

The future market costs of long-term care for older people will be affected by the extent of informal care. This paper reports on projections of receipt of informal care by disabled older people from their spouses and (adult) children to 2031 in England. The paper shows that, over the next 30 years, care by spouses is likely to increase substantially. However, if current patterns of care remain the same, care by children will also need to increase by nearly 60 per cent by 2031. It is not clear that the supply of care by children will rise to meet this demand.

scholarly journals Is informal care sufficient to meet the long-term care needs of older people with disabilities in China? Evidence from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Yang ◽  
Si Ying Tan
Keyword(s):  
Older People ◽  
Informal Care ◽  
Daily Living ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Unmet Needs ◽  
People With Disabilities ◽  
Care Provision ◽  
Care Needs ◽  
Term Care

Abstract Rapid demographic shifts and socio-economic changes are fuelling concerns over the inadequate supply of informal care – the most common source of care-giving for older people in China. Unmet long-term care needs, which are believed to cause numerous adverse effects on health, continue to increase. Drawing data from the 2015 wave of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey, this study explores the relationship between informal care provision and unmet long-term care needs among older people in China. We first examine the availability of informal care among older people with disabilities. We then analyse whether a higher intensity of informal care leads to lower unmet needs. Our findings suggest that the majority of older people with disabilities receive a low intensity of care, i.e. less than 80 hours per month. Besides, a higher intensity of informal care received could significantly lower the probabilities of unmet needs for the disabled older adults who have mainly instrumental activities of daily living limitations. Our study points out that informal care cannot address the needs of those who are struggling with multi-dimensional difficulties in their daily living. Our findings highlight a pressing need for the government to buttress the formal care provision and delivery systems to support both informal care-givers and disabled older people in China.

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