Projected Future Changes of Meridional Heat Transport and Heat Balance of the Indian Ocean

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Ma ◽  
Ming Feng ◽  
Jian Lan ◽  
Dunxin Hu
2011 ◽  
Vol 41 (8) ◽  
pp. 1498-1511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shenfu Dong ◽  
Silvia Garzoli ◽  
Molly Baringer

Abstract The interocean exchange of water from the South Atlantic with the Pacific and Indian Oceans is examined using the output from the ocean general circulation model for the Earth Simulator (OFES) during the period 1980–2006. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the role of the interocean exchanges in the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and its associated meridional heat transport (MHT) in the South Atlantic. The meridional heat transport from OFES shows a similar response to AMOC variations to that derived from observations: a 1 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) increase in the AMOC strength would cause a 0.054 ± 0.003 PW increase in MHT at approximately 34°S. The main feature in the AMOC and MHT across 34°S is their increasing trends during the period 1980–93. Separating the transports into boundary currents and ocean interior regions indicates that the increase in transport comes from the ocean interior region, suggesting that it is important to monitor the ocean interior region to capture changes in the AMOC and MHT on decadal to longer time scales. The linear increase in the MHT from 1980 to 1993 is due to the increase in advective heat converged into the South Atlantic from the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Of the total increase in the heat convergence, about two-thirds is contributed by the Indian Ocean through the Agulhas Current system, suggesting that the warm-water route from the Indian Ocean plays a more important role in the northward-flowing water in the upper branch of the AMOC at 34°S during the study period.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Ma ◽  
Ming Feng ◽  
Jian Lan ◽  
Dunxin Hu

<p>An ocean downscaling model product, forced under the RCP8.5 future climate change scenario, has been used to understand the ocean heat balance of the Indian Ocean in a warming climate. Towards the end of the 21th century, the model simulates a significant reduction of Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport, which reduces the Pacific to Indian Ocean heat transport by 0.20 PW; whereas across S in the southern Indian Ocean (SIO), the southward heat transport is reduced by 0.28 PW, mainly contributed from the weakening western boundary current, the Agulhas Current (0.21 PW). The projected weakening of the Agulhas Current is to compensate for the reduction of the ITF transport, with additional contribution from the spin-down of the SIO subtropical gyre. Thus, being amplified by the ocean circulation changes in the SIO, the projected Indian Ocean warming trend is much faster than the direct air-sea heat flux input.</p>


Author(s):  
Lei Han

AbstractThe meridional overturning circulation (MOC) seasonality in the Indian Ocean is investigated with the ocean state estimate product, ECCO v4r3. The vertical movements of water parcels are predominantly due to the heaving of the isopycnals all over the basin except off the western coast. Aided by the linear propagation equation of long baroclinic Rossby waves, the driving factor determining the strength of the seasonal MOC in the Indian Ocean is identified as the zonally-integrated Ekman pumping anomaly, rather than the Ekman transport concluded in earlier studies. A new concept of sloshing MOC is proposed, and its difference with the classic Eulerian MOC leads to the so-called diapycnal MOC. The striking resemblance of the Eulerian and sloshing MOCs implies the seasonal variation of the Eulerian MOC in the Indian Ocean is a sloshing mode. The shallow overturning cells manifest themselves in the diapycnal MOC as the most remarkable structure. New perspectives on the upwelling branch of the shallow overturn in the Indian Ocean are offered based on diapycnal vertical velocity. The discrepancy among the observation-based estimates on the bottom inflow across 32°S of the basin is interpreted with the seasonal sloshing mode. Consequently, the “missing mixing” in the deep Indian Ocean is attributed to the overestimated diapycnal volume fluxes. Decomposition of meridional heat transport (MHT) into sloshing and diapycnal components clearly shows the dominant mechanism of MHT in the Indian Ocean in various seasons.


Author(s):  
Josh K. Willis

Abstract Since 2000, the Indian Ocean has warmed more rapidly than the Atlantic or Pacific. Air-sea fluxes alone cannot explain the rapid Indian Ocean warming, which has so far been linked to an increase in temperature transport into the basin through the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Here, we investigate the role that the heat transport out of the basin at 36°S plays in the warming. Adding the heat transport out of the basin to the ITF temperature transport into the basin, we calculate the decadal mean Indian Ocean heat budget over the 2010s. We find that heat convergence increased within the Indian Ocean over 2000-2019. The heat convergence over the 2010s is the same order as the warming rate, and thus the net air-sea fluxes are near zero. This is a significant change from previous analyses using trans-basin hydrographic sections from 1987, 2002, and 2009, which all found divergences of heat. A two year time series shows that seasonal aliasing is not responsible for the decadal change. The anomalous ocean heat convergence over the 2010s compared to previous estimates is due to changes in ocean currents at both the southern boundary (33%) and the ITF (67%). We hypothesize that the changes at the southern boundary are linked to an observed broadening of the Agulhas Current, implying that temperature and velocity data at the western boundary are crucial to constrain heat budget changes.


2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (20) ◽  
pp. 7314-7322 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Guan ◽  
Duane E. Waliser ◽  
Tong Lee ◽  
Daria J. Halkides

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1013-1031 ◽  
Author(s):  
Galina Chirokova ◽  
Peter J. Webster

Abstract The work in this paper builds upon the relatively well-studied seasonal cycle of the Indian Ocean heat transport by investigating its interannual variability over a 41-yr period (1958–98). An intermediate, two-and-a-half-layer thermodynamically active ocean model with mixed layer physics is used in the investigation. The results of the study reveal that the Indian Ocean heat transport possesses strong variability at all time scales from intraseasonal (10–90 days) to interannual (more than one year). The seasonal cycle dominates the variability at all latitudes, the amplitude of the intraseasonal variability is similar to the seasonal cycle, and the amplitude of the interannual variability is about one-tenth of the seasonal cycle. Spectral analysis shows that a significant broadband biennial component in the interannual variability exists with considerable coherence in sign across the equator. While the mean annual heat transport shows a strong maximum between 10° and 20°S, interannual variability is relatively uniform over a broad latitudinal domain between 15°N and 10°S. The heat transport variability at all time scales is well explained by the Ekman heat transport, with especially good correlations at the intraseasonal time scales. The addition of the Indonesian Throughflow does not significantly affect the heat transport variability in the northern part of the ocean.


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