Reduction in meridional heat export contributes to recent Indian Ocean warming

Since 2000, the Indian Ocean has warmed more rapidly than the Atlantic or Pacific. Air-sea fluxes alone cannot explain the rapid Indian Ocean warming, which has so far been linked to an increase in temperature transport into the basin through the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Here, we investigate the role that the heat transport out of the basin at 36°S plays in the warming. Adding the heat transport out of the basin to the ITF temperature transport into the basin, we calculate the decadal mean Indian Ocean heat budget over the 2010s. We find that heat convergence increased within the Indian Ocean over 2000-2019. The heat convergence over the 2010s is the same order as the warming rate, and thus the net air-sea fluxes are near zero. This is a significant change from previous analyses using trans-basin hydrographic sections from 1987, 2002, and 2009, which all found divergences of heat. A two year time series shows that seasonal aliasing is not responsible for the decadal change. The anomalous ocean heat convergence over the 2010s compared to previous estimates is due to changes in ocean currents at both the southern boundary (33%) and the ITF (67%). We hypothesize that the changes at the southern boundary are linked to an observed broadening of the Agulhas Current, implying that temperature and velocity data at the western boundary are crucial to constrain heat budget changes.

Reviews and syntheses: Physical and biogeochemical processes associated with upwelling in the Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean presents two distinct climate regimes. The north Indian Ocean is dominated by the monsoons, whereas the seasonal reversal is less pronounced in the south. The prevailing wind pattern produces upwelling along different parts of the coast in both hemispheres during different times of the year. Additionally, dynamical processes and eddies either cause or enhance upwelling. This paper reviews the phenomena of upwelling along the coast of the Indian Ocean extending from the tip of South Africa to the southern tip of the west coast of Australia. Observed features, underlying mechanisms, and the impact of upwelling on the ecosystem are presented. In the Agulhas Current region, cyclonic eddies associated with Natal pulses drive slope upwelling and enhance chlorophyll concentrations along the continental margin. The Durban break-away eddy spun up by the Agulhas upwells cold nutrient-rich water. Additionally, topographically induced upwelling occurs along the inshore edges of the Agulhas Current. Wind-driven coastal upwelling occurs along the south coast of Africa and augments the dynamical upwelling in the Agulhas Current. Upwelling hotspots along the Mozambique coast are present in the northern and southern sectors of the channel and are ascribed to dynamical effects of ocean circulation in addition to wind forcing. Interaction of mesoscale eddies with the western boundary, dipole eddy pair interactions, and passage of cyclonic eddies cause upwelling. Upwelling along the southern coast of Madagascar is caused by the Ekman wind-driven mechanism and by eddy generation and is inhibited by the Southwest Madagascar Coastal Current. Seasonal upwelling along the East African coast is primarily driven by the northeast monsoon winds and enhanced by topographically induced shelf breaking and shear instability between the East African Coastal Current and the island chains. The Somali coast presents a strong case for the classical Ekman type of upwelling; such upwelling can be inhibited by the arrival of deeper thermocline signals generated in the offshore region by wind stress curl. Upwelling is nearly uniform along the coast of Arabia, caused by the alongshore component of the summer monsoon winds and modulated by the arrival of Rossby waves generated in the offshore region by cyclonic wind stress curl. Along the west coast of India, upwelling is driven by coastally trapped waves together with the alongshore component of the monsoon winds. Along the southern tip of India and Sri Lanka, the strong Ekman transport drives upwelling. Upwelling along the east coast of India is weak and occurs during summer, caused by alongshore winds. In addition, mesoscale eddies lead to upwelling, but the arrival of river water plumes inhibits upwelling along this coast. Southeasterly winds drive upwelling along the coast of Sumatra and Java during summer, with Kelvin wave propagation originating from the equatorial Indian Ocean affecting the magnitude and extent of the upwelling. Both El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events cause large variability in upwelling here. Along the west coast of Australia, which is characterized by the anomalous Leeuwin Current, southerly winds can cause sporadic upwelling, which is prominent along the southwest, central, and Gascoyne coasts during summer. Open-ocean upwelling in the southern tropical Indian Ocean and within the Sri Lanka Dome is driven primarily by the wind stress curl but is also impacted by Rossby wave propagations. Upwelling is a key driver enhancing biological productivity in all sectors of the coast, as indicated by enhanced sea surface chlorophyll concentrations. Additional knowledge at varying levels has been gained through in situ observations and model simulations. In the Mozambique Channel, upwelling simulates new production and circulation redistributes the production generated by upwelling and mesoscale eddies, leading to observations of higher ecosystem impacts along the edges of eddies. Similarly, along the southern Madagascar coast, biological connectivity is influenced by the transport of phytoplankton from upwelling zones. Along the coast of Kenya, both productivity rates and zooplankton biomass are higher during the upwelling season. Along the Somali coast, accumulation of upwelled nutrients in the northern part of the coast leads to spatial heterogeneity in productivity. In contrast, productivity is more uniform along the coasts of Yemen and Oman. Upwelling along the west coast of India has several biogeochemical implications, including oxygen depletion, denitrification, and high production of CH4 and dimethyl sulfide. Although weak, wind-driven upwelling leads to significant enhancement of phytoplankton in the northwest Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon. Along the Sumatra and Java coasts, upwelling affects the phytoplankton composition and assemblages. Dissimilarities in copepod assemblages occur during the upwelling periods along the west coast of Australia. Phytoplankton abundance characterizes inshore edges of the slope during upwelling season, and upwelling eddies are associated with krill abundance. The review identifies the northern coast of the Arabian Sea and eastern coasts of the Bay of Bengal as the least observed sectors. Additionally, sustained long-term observations with high temporal and spatial resolutions along with high-resolution modelling efforts are recommended for a deeper understanding of upwelling, its variability, and its impact on the ecosystem.

Impact of the Agulhas Current on southern Africa precipitation: a modelling study

The Agulhas Current (AC) creates a sharp temperature gradient with the surrounding ocean, leading to a large turbulent flux of moisture from ocean to atmosphere. We use two simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to show the seasonal impact of the warm core of the AC on southern Africa precipitation. In one simulation the sea surface temperature (SST) of the AC is similar to satellite observations, while the second uses satellite SST observations spatially smoothed to reduce the temperature of the core of the AC by ~1.5°C. We show that decreasing the SST of the AC reduces the precipitation of the wettest seasons (austral summer and autumn) inland. Over the ocean, reducing the SST reduces precipitation, low-level wind convergence, SST and SLP Laplacian above the AC in all seasons, consistent with the pressure adjustment mechanism. Moreover, winter precipitation above the Current may be also related to increased latent flux. In summer and autumn, the AC SST reduction is also associated with decreased precipitation further inland (more than 1.5 mm/day), caused by an atmospheric circulation that decreases the horizontal moisture flux from the AC to South Africa. The reduction is also associated with higher geopotential height extending from the surface east and over the AC to the mid-troposphere over southeastern Africa. The westward tilted geopotential height is consistent with the linear response to shallow diabatic heating in midlatitudes. An identical mechanism occurs in spring but is weaker. Winter rainfall response is confined above the AC.

Submesoscale flows impact Agulhas leakage in ocean simulations

Agulhas leakage, the warm and salty inflow of Indian Ocean water into the Atlantic Ocean, is of importance for the climate-relevant Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. South of Africa, the eastward turning Agulhas Current sheds Agulhas rings, cyclones and filaments of order 100 km that carry the Indian Ocean water into the Cape Basin and further into the Atlantic. Here, we show that the resolution of submesoscale flows of order 10 km in an ocean model leads to 40 % more Agulhas leakage and more realistic Cape Basin water-masses compared to a parallel non-submesoscale resolving simulation. Moreover, we show that submesoscale flows strengthen shear-edge eddies and in consequence lee cyclones at the northern edge of the Agulhas Current, as well as the leakage pathway in the region of the filaments that takes place outside of mesoscale eddies. This indicates that the increase in leakage can be attributed to stronger Agulhas filaments, when submesoscale flows are resolved.

334-year coral record of surface temperature and salinity variability in the greater Agulhas Current region

The Agulhas Current (AC) off the southern tip of Africa is one of the strongest western boundary currents and a crucial chokepoint of inter-ocean heat and salt exchange between the Indian and the South Atlantic Ocean. However, large uncertainties remain concerning the sea surface temperature and salinity variability in the AC region and their driving mechanisms over longer time scales, due to short observational datasets and the highly dynamic nature of the region. Here, we present an annual coral skeletal Sr/Ca composite record paired with an established composite oxygen isotope record from Ifaty and Tulear reefs in southwestern Madagascar to obtain a 334 year-long (1661–1995) reconstruction of δ18Oseawater changes related to surface salinity variability in the wider Agulhas Current region. Our new annual δ18Oseawater composite record from Ifaty traces surface salinity of the southern Mozambique Channel and AC core region from the SODA reanalysis since 1958. δ18Oseawater appears mainly driven by large-scale wind forcing in the southern Indian Ocean on interannual to decadal time scales. The δ18Oseawater and SST at Ifaty show characteristic interannual variability of between 2 to 4 years, typical for ENSO. Lagged correlations with the Multivariate ENSO index reveals a 1–2 year lag of δ18Oseawater and salinity at Ifaty and the AC region, suggesting that propagation of anomalies by ocean Rossby waves may contribute to salinity changes in the wider southwestern Indian Ocean. The δ18Oseawater and SST reconstructions at Ifaty reveal the highest interannual variability during the Little Ice Age, especially around 1700, which is in agreement with other Indo-Pacific coral studies. Our study demonstrates the huge potential to unlock past interannual and decadal changes in surface ocean hydrology and ocean transport dynamics from coral δ18Oseawater beyond the short instrumental record.

ROV assessment of mesophotic fish and associated habitats across the continental shelf of the Amathole region

Understanding how fish associate with habitats across marine landscapes is crucial to developing effective marine spatial planning (MSP) in an expanding and diversifying ocean economy. Globally, anthropogenic pressures impact the barely understood temperate mesophotic ecosystems and South Africa’s remote Amathole shelf is no exception. The Kei and East London region encompass three coastal marine protected areas (MPAs), two of which were recently extended to the shelf-edge. The strong Agulhas current (exceeding 3 m/s), which runs along the narrow shelf exacerbates sampling challenges. For the first time, a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) surveyed fish and their associated habitats across the shelf. Results indicated fish assemblages differed between the two principle sampling areas, and across the shelf. The number of distinct fish assemblages was higher inshore and on the shelf-edge, relative to the mid-shelf. However, the mid-shelf had the highest species richness. Unique visuals of rare Rhinobatos ocellatus (Speckled guitarfish) and shoaling Polyprion americanus (wreckfish) were collected. Visual evidence of rhodolith beds, deep-water lace corals and critically endangered endemic seabreams were ecologically important observations. The ROV enabled in situ sampling without damaging sensitive habitats or extracting fish. This study provided information that supported the Amathole MPA expansions, which extended protection from the coast to beyond the shelf-edge and will guide their management. The data gathered provides baseline information for future benthopelagic fish and habitat monitoring in these new MPAs.

Characteristics and robustness of Agulhas leakage estimates: an inter-comparison study of Lagrangian methods

The inflow of relatively warm and salty water from the Indian Ocean into the South Atlantic via Agulhas leakage is important for the global overturning circulation and the global climate. In this study, we analyse the robustness of Agulhas leakage estimates as well as the thermohaline property modifications of Agulhas leakage south of Africa. Lagrangian experiments with both the newly developed tool Parcels and the well established tool Ariane were performed to simulate Agulhas leakage in the eddy-rich ocean–sea-ice model INALT20 (1/20∘ horizontal resolution) forced by the JRA55-do atmospheric boundary conditions. The average transport, its variability, trend and the transit time from the Agulhas Current to the Cape Basin of Agulhas leakage is simulated comparably with both Lagrangian tools, emphasizing the robustness of our method. Different designs of the Lagrangian experiment alter in particular the total transport of Agulhas leakage by up to 2 Sv, but the variability and trend of the transport are similar across these estimates. During the transit from the Agulhas Current at 32∘ S to the Cape Basin, a cooling and freshening of Agulhas leakage waters occurs especially at the location of the Agulhas Retroflection, resulting in a density increase as the thermal effect dominates. Beyond the strong air–sea exchange around South Africa, Agulhas leakage warms and salinifies the water masses below the thermocline in the South Atlantic.