Geodetic constraints on recent subduction earthquakes and future seismic hazards in the southwestern coast of Mexico

This article develops global models of damping scaling factors (DSFs) for subduction zone earthquakes that are functions of the damping ratio, spectral period, earthquake magnitude, and distance. The Next Generation Attenuation for subduction earthquakes (NGA-Sub) project has developed the largest uniformly processed database of recorded ground motions to date from seven subduction regions: Alaska, Cascadia, Central America and Mexico, South America, Japan, Taiwan, and New Zealand. NGA-Sub used this database to develop new ground motion models (GMMs) at a reference 5% damping ratio. We worked with the NGA-Sub project team to develop an extended database that includes pseudo-spectral accelerations (PSA) for 11 damping ratios between 0.5% and 30%. We use this database to develop parametric models of DSF for both interface and intraslab subduction earthquakes that can be used to adjust any subduction GMM from a reference 5% damping ratio to other damping ratios. The DSF is strongly influenced by the response spectral shape and the duration of motion; therefore, in addition to the damping ratio, the median DSF model uses spectral period, magnitude, and distance as surrogate predictor variables to capture the effects of the spectral shape and the duration of motion. We also develop parametric models for the standard deviation of DSF. The models presented in this article are for the RotD50 horizontal component of PSA and are compared with the models for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. Some noticeable differences arise from the considerably longer duration of interface records for very large magnitude events and the enriched high-frequency content of intraslab records, compared with shallow crustal earthquakes. Regional differences are discussed by comparing the proposed global models with the data from each subduction region along with recommendations on the applicability of the models.

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The stop-start control of seismicity by fault bends along the Main Himalayan Thrust

Communications Earth & Environment ◽

10.1038/s43247-021-00153-3 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Sharadha Sathiakumar ◽

Sylvain Barbot

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazards ◽

Geodetic Data ◽

Source Mechanism ◽

Seismogenic Zone ◽

Seismic Cycle ◽

Rupture Propagation ◽

Alternative Models ◽

Nepal Earthquake

AbstractThe Himalayan megathrust accommodates most of the relative convergence between the Indian and Eurasian plates, producing cycles of blind and surface-breaking ruptures. Elucidating the mechanics of down-dip segmentation of the seismogenic zone is key to better determine seismic hazards in the region. However, the geometry of the Himalayan megathrust and its impact on seismicity remains controversial. Here, we develop seismic cycle simulations tuned to the seismo-geodetic data of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake to better constrain the megathrust geometry and its role on the demarcation of partial ruptures. We show that a ramp in the middle of the seismogenic zone is required to explain the termination of the coseismic rupture and the source mechanism of up-dip aftershocks consistently. Alternative models with a wide décollement can only explain the mainshock. Fault structural complexities likely play an important role in modulating the seismic cycle, in particular, the distribution of rupture sizes. Fault bends are capable of both obstructing rupture propagation as well as behave as a source of seismicity and rupture initiation.

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