Validation of a Bayesian Method for Assessing Sexual Recidivism Risk

Previous research has shown that mock and actual jurors give little weight to actuarial sexual offending recidivism risk estimates when making decisions regarding civil commitment for so-called sexually violent predators (SVPs). We hypothesized that non-risk related factors, such as irrelevant contextual information and jurors’ information-processing style, would influence mock jurors’ perceptions of sexual recidivism risk. This preregistered experimental study examined the effects of mock jurors’ (N = 427) need for cognition (NFC), irrelevant contextual information in the form of the offender’s social attractiveness, and an actuarial risk estimate on mock jurors’ estimates of sexual recidivism risk related to a simulated SVP case vignette. Mock jurors exposed to negative risk-irrelevant characteristics of the offender estimated sexual recidivism risk as higher than mock jurors exposed to positive information about the offender. However, this effect was no longer significant after mock jurors had reviewed Static-99R actuarial risk estimate information. We found no support for the hypothesis that the level of NFC moderates the relationship between risk-irrelevant contextual information and risk estimates. Future research could explore additional individual characteristics or attitudes among mock jurors that may influence perceptions of sexual recidivism risk and insensitivity to actuarial risk estimates.

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Faculty Opinions recommendation of Bayesian method to predict individual SNP genotypes from gene expression data.

Faculty Opinions – Post-Publication Peer Review of the Biomedical Literature ◽

10.3410/f.14267400.15779623 ◽

2012 ◽

Author(s):

François Cambien

Keyword(s):

Gene Expression ◽

Gene Expression Data ◽

Bayesian Method ◽

Expression Data

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Age-specific cut-off levels of anti-Müllerian hormone can be used as diagnostic markers for polycystic ovary syndrome

Reproductive Biology and Endocrinology ◽

10.1186/s12958-021-00755-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Fahimeh Ramezani Tehrani ◽

Maryam Rahmati ◽

Fatemeh Mahboobifard ◽

Faezeh Firouzi ◽

Nazanin Hashemi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Bayesian Method ◽

Polycystic Ovary ◽

Characteristic Curve ◽

Generalized Additive Models ◽

Additive Models ◽

Control Group ◽

Age Group ◽

Predictive Values ◽

Pcos Group

Abstract Background The majority of available studies on the AMH thresholds were not age-specific and performed the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis, based on variations in sensitivity and specificity rather than positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV, respectively), which are more clinically applicable. Moreover, all of these studies used a pre-specified age categorization to report the age-specific cut-off values of AMH. Methods A total of 803 women, including 303 PCOS patients and 500 eumenorrheic non-hirsute control women, were enrolled in the present study. The PCOS group included PCOS women, aged 20–40 years, who were referred to the Reproductive Endocrinology Research Center, Tehran, Iran. The Rotterdam consensus criteria were used for diagnosis of PCOS. The control group was selected among women, aged 20–40 years, who participated in Tehran Lipid and Glucose cohort Study (TLGS). Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to identify the optimal cut-off points for various age categories. The cut-off levels of AMH in different age categories were estimated, using the Bayesian method. Main results and the role of chance Two optimal cut-off levels of AMH (ng/ml) were identified at the age of 27 and 35 years, based on GAMs. The cut-off levels for the prediction of PCOS in the age categories of 20–27, 27–35, and 35–40 years were 5.7 (95 % CI: 5.48–6.19), 4.55 (95 % CI: 4.52–4.64), and 3.72 (95 % CI: 3.55–3.80), respectively. Based on the Bayesian method, the PPV and NPV of these cut-off levels were as follows: PPV = 0.98 (95 % CI: 0.96–0.99) and NPV = 0.40 (95 % CI: 0.30–0.51) for the age group of 20–27 years; PPV = 0.96 (95 % CI: 0.91–0.99) and NPV = 0.82 (95 % CI: 0.78–0.86) for the age group of 27–35 years; and PPV = 0.86 (95 % CI: 0.80–0.94) and NPV = 0.96 (95 % CI: 0.93–0.98) for the age group of 35–40 years. Conclusions Application of age-specific cut-off levels of AMH, according to the GAMs and Bayesian method, could elegantly assess the value of AMH in discriminating PCOS patients in all age categories.

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The 2015 Static-99R: Alternative Recidivism Tables for High-Risk Offenders

International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology ◽

10.1177/0306624x15623803 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 61 (14) ◽

pp. 1593-1605 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Richard W. Elwood ◽

Sharon M. Kelley ◽

James C. Mundt

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Sex Offenders ◽

Confidence Intervals ◽

Sexual Recidivism ◽

Viable Option ◽

Recidivism Rates ◽

Sexually Violent ◽

Male Sex ◽

Sexually Violent Person ◽

Male Sex Offenders

The Static-99R is an actuarial scale that is commonly used to assess the recidivism risk of male sex offenders. Hanson, Thornton, Helmus, and Babchishin recently revised the Static-99R norms based on revised analyses that excluded the large Bridgewater sample. As a result, the sample size of the high risk/high need (HR/HN) group was reduced substantially, which increased the confidence intervals around the predicted recidivism rates. This study provides alternative 5- and 10-year recidivism rates based on logistic regression analyses of the entire 2009 Static-99R HR/HN group that includes the Bridgewater sample. These rates fit the observed 2009 data well and have smaller confidence intervals. We propose that using alternative sexual recidivism rates from the 2009 HR/HN group is a viable option for assessing sexually violent person (SVP) and other high-risk offenders.

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