Situasi Filariasis Limfatik di Daerah Pasca Pemberian Obat Pencegahan Massal (POPM) dan Pasca Eliminasi di Kabupaten Tanjung Jabung Timur dan Belitung

East Tanjung Jabung Regency, Jambi did not pass in the Pre-Transmission Assessment Survey (Pre-TAS) in 2017, while Belitung, Bangka Belitung has a microfilaria rate (Mf rate) >1% even though it has passed TAS 1,2, and 3. The purpose of this study is to identify the program implementation control of lymphatic filariasis in East Tanjung Jabung Regency and Belitung Regency. The research was conducted in four villages, namely of Rantau Rasau 2, Nibung Putih (East Tanjung Jabung), Lasar, and Suak Gual (Belitung). Blood sampling was conducted on 1,919 people aged 5-70 years, while interviews were conducted on 900 people aged >16 years. The results of blood tests in East Tanjung Jabung were not found positive for mf, while in Belitung, 33 people were found positive for mf. The results of the risk estimate analysis of the respondent's knowledge, attitude and behavior factors indicate that respondents who live in East Tanjung Jabung Regency have a better level of knowledge, attitudes, and behaviour towards lymphatic filariasis t han respondents who live in Belitung Regency. Keywords: lymphatic filariasis, elimination, risk factor Abstrak Kabupaten Tanjung Jabung Timur, Jambi tidak lulus dalam Survei Penilaian Pra Transmisi (Pre-TAS) tahun 2017, sedangkan Belitung, Bangka Belitung memiliki angka mikrofilaria (Mf rate) >1% padahal sudah lolos TAS 1,2, dan 3. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengidentifikasi pelaksanaan program pengendalian penyakit filariasis limfatik di Kabupaten Tanjung Jabung Timur dan Kabupaten Belitung. Penelitian dilakukan di empat desa, yaitu Rantau Rasau, Nibung Putih (Tanjung Jabung Timur), Lasar dan Suak Gual (Belitung). Pengambilan sampel darah dilakukan pada 1.919 orang berusia 5-70 tahun, sedangkan wawancara dilakukan pada 900 orang berusia >16 tahun. Hasil tes darah di Tanjung Jabung Timur tidak ditemukan positif mf, sedangkan di Belitung, 33 orang ditemukan positif mf. Hasil analisis estimasi risiko faktor pengetahuan, sikap dan perilaku responden menunjukkan bahwa responden yang berdomisili di Kabupaten Tanjung Jabung Timur memiliki tingkat pengetahuan, sikap, dan perilaku yang lebih baik terhadap filariasis limfatik dibandingkan responden yang berdomisili di Kabupaten Belitung. Kata kunci: filariasis limfatik, eliminasi, faktor risiko

Estimating COVID Risk During a Period of Pandemic Decline

Background: Many parts of the world that succeeded in suppressing epidemic coronavirus spread in 2020 have been caught out by recent changes in the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Australia's early success in suppressing COVID-19 resulted in lengthy periods without community transmission. However, a slow vaccine rollout leaves this geographically isolated population vulnerable to leakage of new variants from quarantine, which requires internal travel restrictions, disruptive lockdowns, contact tracing and testing surges.Methods: To assist long term sustainment of limited public health resources, we sought a method of continuous, real-time COVID-19 risk monitoring that could be used to alert non-specialists to the level of epidemic risk on a sub-national scale. After an exploratory data assessment, we selected four COVID-19 metrics used by public health in their periodic threat assessments, applied a business continuity matrix and derived a numeric indicator; the COVID-19 Risk Estimate (CRE), to generate a daily spot CRE, a 3 day net rise and a seven day rolling average. We used open source data updated daily from all Australian states and territories to monitor the CRE for over a year.Results: Upper and lower CRE thresholds were established for the CRE seven day rolling average, corresponding to risk of sustained and potential outbreak propagation, respectively. These CRE thresholds were used in a real-time map of Australian COVID-19 risk estimate distribution by state and territory.Conclusions: The CRE toolkit we developed complements other COVID-19 risk management techniques and provides an early indication of emerging threats to business continuity.

Birth by Caesarean Section and Offspring Overweight and Obesity in Adult Life: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Overweight/obesity is one of the most important health problem worldwide. Birth by cesarean section has been shown to influence long-term health outcome including obesity. The aim of this systematic review-meta-analysis is to examine whether cesarean section increases the risk of offspring’ s overweight/obesity. The study follows the PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines. A systematic literature search was con-ducted on Scopus, PubMed, and WoS until December 2020. For inclusion, studies must have re-ported either (I) both Birth by cesarean section and adult (≥ 18 years) offspring BMI, (II) cohort or case–control study design and (III) a risk estimate. Heterogeneity testing was performed using Cochran's Q and I2 statistics. Publication bias was assessed by Egger’s test and Begg’s test. Me-ta-analysis was performed through a random effect model. Eleven studies with a combined population of 180.408 subjects were included in the meta-analysis. The overall analysis (n = 18) yielded a combined risk estimate for overweight/obesity of 1.19 (95% CI 1.08-1.31) and the test of heterogeneity resulted Q=53,37 (I2 = 70,37 %, P≤0•0001). The risk of offspring obesity is 1.23 (95% CI 1.09-1.39) and the test of heterogeneity resulted Q=39.50 (I2= 72,15%, P≤0•0001). Children born by cesarean section have an increased risk of developing obesity in adulthood

Consumption of Coffee and Risk of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Objective: The results from epidemiologic studies on the relationship between intake of coffee and the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) remain inconclusive. A meta-analysis was performed to achieve a comprehensive finding regarding the association between intake of coffee and the risk of GDM.Methods: PubMed, Scopus, ISI Web of Science, and Google Scholar were searched to find articles published up to August 2021. Observational studies that reported risk estimates [risk ratios (RRs), hazard ratios (HRs), and odds ratios (ORs)] for the association of consumption of coffee with the risk of GDM in pregnant women were included. Random effects model was applied to calculate summarized risk estimate and 95% CIs for the highest vs. lowest categories of intake of coffee.Results: Seven observational studies (three cohort, two case-control, and two cross-sectional studies) with 75,607 participants and 1,625 women with GDM met the inclusion criteria. The meta-analysis of comparing the highest vs. lowest intake of coffee categories showed no significant association between intake of coffee and risk of GDM (summarized risk estimate: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.76, 1.05; I2 = 63.4%). Subgroup analysis showed that consumption of coffee had an inverse relationship with GDM in studies conducted in non-Asia countries (summarized risk estimate: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.58, 0.97; I2 = 6%).Conclusion: This study has shown that high consumption of coffee did not decrease the risk of GDM. Furthermore, large-scale cohort studies are required to confirm our findings.

Carjacking: A Comparison Between Campinas, Brazil and Detroit, Michigan

Carjacking calls for a specialized analysis because it occurs at lightning speed within very brief windows of opportunity. This article describes the geographic distribution of carjacking in Campinas, Brazil, and then compares this pattern with Detroit, Michigan. We learn that raw numbers of carjackings are widely dispersed in both cities. Although these cities differ greatly in daily transportation systems, in both cities the carjacking risk estimate is greatest where motorists stop for other reasons—at gas stations or corners (Detroit); on short street blocks (Campinas). We make very limited inferences about carjacking around the world due to the limited number of cities studied thus far. However, we do suggest that carjacking reduction is most amenable to product-based forms of situational crime prevention.

Inference on Reported Vehicular Fatal Accidents in Nigeria Using a Bayesian Model

The study introduced a special case of the Poisson-Generalized Gamma empirical Bayes model to survey states in Nigeria with a higher risk of fatal accidents. Monte Carlo error and stationary dynamic trace plots were used to validate model convergence and accuracy of the posterior estimates. The main results included the disease mappings that revealed Ebonyi had the highest risk of road vehicular fatal accidents in Nigeria with a relative risk estimate of 1.4120 while Abuja had the lowest risk with a relative risk estimate 0.5711. In terms of geopolitical region, the risk of road vehicular fatal accident is highest in South-South region with a relative risk estimate of 1.1850 while North-Central had the lowest risk with a relative risk estimate of 0.7846. The study is to aid planned government programs to ameliorate vehicular road carnage in Nigeria.