Abstract
Agricultural production is both strongly affected by climate change and a major contributor to climate change, with agriculture and land use change accounting for around a quarter of total global emissions of greenhouse gases. Agricultural production benefits from substantial government support, costing around US$600 billion per year worldwide. These subsidies clearly affect greenhouse gas emissions by influencing the composition and location of output, and production practices, but no rigorous quantification of these impacts have been available to date. This article fills this void. Overall, we find small impacts of agricultural support programs on output and hence on emissions. Abolishing support altogether thus would do little to reduce global emissions from agriculture. In fact, paradoxically, it could even increase emissions. A repurposing of support towards incentives for more resource-efficient and climate-smart forms of production needs to be considered if this support is to contribute to climate change mitigation, adaptation and food security.