Time-Dependent Demographic Prediction Based on Time-Back-Propagation Method

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-40
Author(s):  
Yuyang Ke ◽  
Yan Xiong ◽  
Yiqing Hu ◽  
Shichen Liu
2020 ◽  
pp. 136943322095681
Author(s):  
Fengkun Cui ◽  
Huihui Li ◽  
Xu Dong ◽  
Baoqun Wang ◽  
Jin Li ◽  
...  

RC bridge substructures exposed to chloride environments inevitably suffer from corrosion of reinforcement embodied in concrete. This deterioration issue leads to the loss of reinforcement areas and a reduction in seismic capacity of reinforced concrete (RC) bridge substructures. To quantify the effect of steel corrosion on seismic fragility estimates, this paper proposes an improved time-dependent seismic fragility framework by taking into account the increase in the corrosion rate after concrete cracking and the reduction in seismic capacity of RC bridge substructures during the service life. Additionally, an analytical method based on a back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) is proposed to provide probabilistic capacity estimates of deteriorating RC substructures. A three-span T-shaped girder bridge is selected as a case study bridge to provide improved time-dependent seismic fragility estimates that consider uncertainties in the material properties, geometric parameters, deterioration process and ground motions. The obtained fragility curves show that there is a nonlinear increase in the exceedance probability of deteriorating RC bridge substructures for different damage states during the service life. In addition, time-dependent seismic fragility analysis shows that the cases of considering only the effect of an increase in seismic demand or the reduction in seismic capacity as well as neither of them may lead to a significant underestimation of the seismic vulnerability of deteriorating RC bridge substructures.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pengpeng Jiao ◽  
Tuo Sun ◽  
Lin Du

Time-dependent turning movement flows are very important input data for intelligent transportation systems but are impossible to be detected directly through current traffic surveillance systems. Existing estimation models have proved to be not accurate and reliable enough during all intervals. An improved way to address this problem is to develop a combined model framework that can integrate multiple submodels running simultaneously. This paper first presents a back propagation neural network model to estimate dynamic turning movements, as well as the self-adaptive learning rate approach and the gradient descent with momentum method for solving. Second, this paper develops an efficient Kalman filtering model and designs a revised sequential Kalman filtering algorithm. Based on the Bayesian method using both historical data and currently estimated results for error calibration, this paper further integrates above two submodels into a Bayesian combined model framework and proposes a corresponding algorithm. A field survey is implemented at an intersection in Beijing city to collect both time series of link counts and actual time-dependent turning movement flows, including historical and present data. The reported estimation results show that the Bayesian combined model is much more accurate and stable than other models.


Geophysics ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 1-61
Author(s):  
Claudia Finger ◽  
Erik Saenger

An approach is presented to determine the time-dependent moment tensor and the origin time in addition to commonly derived locations of seismic events using time-reverse imaging (TRI). It is crucial to locate and characterize the occurring micro-seismicity without making a priori assumptions about the sources to fully understand the subsurface processes inducing seismicity. Low signal-to-noise ratios often force standard methods to make assumptions about sources or only characterize selected larger-magnitude events. In TRI, micro-earthquakes are located by back propagating the full recorded time-reversed wavefield through a velocity model until it ideally convergences on the source location. Therefore, it is less affected by low signal-to-noise ratios and potentially locates and characterizes most of the events. After distinguishing artificial convergence locations from source locations, the quality of the source location and the moment tensors are derived by recording the stress at the determined source locations during the back propagation of the time-reversed wavefield. A robust workflow is derived using synthetic test cases in a realistic scenario with velocity models that only approximate the true velocity model and/or noisy displacement traces. The influence of a rudimentary velocity model on the source-location accuracy and characterisation is significant. The proposed workflow handles these less-than optimal station distributions and velocity models. Finally, the derived workflow is successfully applied to field data recorded at the geothermal field of Los Humeros, Mexico. Although only a one-dimensional velocity model is currently available, source locations and (time-dependent) moment tensors could be determined for selected events.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document