scholarly journals Fault tree analysis of large-scale blackout accidents

2019 ◽  
Vol 118 ◽  
pp. 01049
Author(s):  
Dong Fu ◽  
Song Gao ◽  
Zhenhong Yan ◽  
Hongye Wu ◽  
Xiaohu Xu ◽  
...  

Fault tree analysis method is used to analyze the large-scale blackout accidents. Minimum cut sets and minimum path sets of large-scale blackout accidents are calculated, and the structural importance degree of the accidents is analyzed according to the minimum path sets. Direct factors that cause large-scale blackout accidents are determined. Effective measures are put forward to prevent large-scale blackouts, and the theoretical basis is put forward to prevent large-scale blackouts.

2012 ◽  
Vol 588-589 ◽  
pp. 401-406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Wei Ma ◽  
Wan Jian Yin ◽  
Jin Gang Ma ◽  
Qing Shan Ji

The composition and function of vehicle charging system are analyzed, and basic theory of fault tree analysis method is introduced. The qualitative analysis of its reliability is carried out. Fault tree model of vehicle charging system is built, the minimum cut sets are solved and the key parts are found out. Through quantitative analysis, the occurrence probability of top event and importance of bottom event are solved, which provides theoretical basis for fault diagnoses of vehicle charging system, saves time of fault diagnoses and reduces unnecessary disassembly.


2013 ◽  
Vol 760-762 ◽  
pp. 1317-1321
Author(s):  
Qi Gui Yao ◽  
Hai Yu ◽  
Yue Yu ◽  
Wei Wang

The method of fault tree analysis is an important method for complex system reliability analysis of large scale. Fiber-access devices monitoring system is an important system of electric power communication transmission. Firstly it introduces the method of fault tree analysis, and then use the fault tree modeling technique for the fault tree to model refers to the fault of optical access equipment monitoring system, and carries on the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. It provides theoretical basis for system improvement and maintenancs.


Author(s):  
Zhenxu Zhou ◽  
Qin Zhang

Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a powerful and well-established tool, widely-used to evaluate system reliability. The logical connections between faults and causes in Fault Trees (FT) are assumed to be deterministic and are represented graphically via logical gates (such as AND gate, OR gate, NOT gate, etc.). However, sometimes the causalities can be uncertain. Considering that some of the causal relationships in FTs may be uncertain or non-deterministic, we propose a new model to represent the uncertainties, so called as Condition Fault Tree (CFT). We extend the traditional FTA by introducing a new parameter U, which illustrates the random mechanism of how parent event can cause child event. The probability of U (which is denoted by u = Pr{U}), is used to measure the uncertainty between parent event and child event. By introducing rules of parameter U in CFT, we explore its properties and corollaries. We also introduce a methodology to simplify CFTs based on Contraction, Elimination and Extraction rules. With the simplification rules, the structure of CFT can be simplified and the size of CFT can be significantly reduced. Since CFT is an extension of traditional FT, a qualitative analysis method and a quantitative method are introduced. For qualitative analysis, one can simplify a given CFT into the simplest form with the aforementioned rules, properties, and corollaries. With the simplest form of CFT, one can then get the Minimum Cut Sets with uncertainties, as an extension of Minimum Cut Sets. For quantitative analysis, exact calculation methods based on Inclusion-Exclusion and Disjoint-Sum-of-Product are proposed. Some examples are used to illustrate how CFT works.


2012 ◽  
Vol 610-613 ◽  
pp. 743-747
Author(s):  
Hai Yan Li ◽  
Guo Bin Wu

This paper conducts the fault tree analysis on Ship Dangerous Chemicals Leakage emergency of Three Gorges Lock with the method of safety system engineering, draws a map of fault tree analysis, representing intuitively the basic events which can bring about top events as well as the logic relationships between them, obtains the minimum cut set, minimum path set and structure importance through qualitative analysis of FTA, and points out the possible ways to prevent the occurrence of accidents.


2011 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-28
Author(s):  
张莉 ZHAGN Li ◽  
王峰 WANG Feng ◽  
温克利 WEN Ke-li

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 2753-2761
Author(s):  
Hui Zhou ◽  
Haiping Ren

In reliability field, the probabilities of basic events are often treated as exact values in conventional fault tree analysis. However, for many practical systems, because the concept of events may be ambiguous, the factors affecting the occurrence of events are complex and changeable, so it is difficult to obtain accurate values of the occurrence probability of events. Fuzzy sets can well deal with these situations. Thus this paper will develop a novel fault tree analysis method in the assumption of the values of probability of basic events expressed with triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. First, a new ranking function of triangular intuitionistic numbers is established, which can reflect the behavior factors of the decision maker. Then a novel fault tree analysis method is put forward on the basis of operational laws and the proposed ranking function of triangular intuitionistic numbers. Finally, an example of weapon system “automatic gun” is employed to show that the proposed fault tree analysis method is feasible and effective.


2011 ◽  
Vol 110-116 ◽  
pp. 2416-2420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Ping Yang

In case of fault tree analysis of large complex system, the probability of bottom event in dynamic fault tree is uncertain in some cases. To address the problem, the paper presented a dynamic fault tree analysis method based on fuzzy set computation. The method separates logic attributes and timing attributes of dynamic logic gates. It can convert dynamic fault tree into static fault tree not considering timing constraints and obtain minimum cut set of static fuzzy fault tree with set operations, then the concept of minimum cut set is extended to dynamical minimum cut sequence. Thus, the dynamic fault tree was analyzed in both qualitative and quantitative aspects, which solve the problem that it is difficult to assign value of event probability in previously process.


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