scholarly journals Application of fuzzy time series forecasting approach for predicting an enterprise net income level

2021 ◽  
Vol 280 ◽  
pp. 02007
Author(s):  
Kateryna Gorbatiuk ◽  
Pavlo Hryhoruk ◽  
Oksana Proskurovych ◽  
Nina Rizun ◽  
Audrius Gargasas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Income Level ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Point Forecast ◽  
The Universe ◽  
Universe Of Discourse

To ensure the sustainable development of an enterprise, it is necessary to properly analyze the enterprise development, to ground the plans and management decisions on effective diagnostics and prediction of current and future economic situation at the enterprise. The article presents a study on the application of fuzzy time series forecasting methods. A new approach is applied to forecasting an enterprise's net income using a fuzzy technique. For testing the methodology, there were used statistical data on the enterprise net income level of the Ukrainian enterprise from 2002 to 2017. In the method of Stevenson and Potter, it is proposed to use as the universe of discourse, in the process of applying the method for all defined fuzzy sets, the intervals of variation of such indicator as growth rate. The same background as in Stevenson and Porter’s model is used in this article for forecasting the time series levels using the growth rates of the actual data as the universe of discourse. The forecasting results, obtained by this approach, are supposed to have more accuracy rate than other fuzzy time series models. Some modifications of this technique are proposed to obtain a higher accuracy rate and a point forecast one step forward.

scholarly journals Saxena-Easo Fuzzy Time Series on Indonesia’s Inflation Rate Forecasting

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
Lutvia Citra Ramadhani ◽  
Dian Anggraeni ◽  
Ahmad Kamsyakawuni
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Diagnostic Checking ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
The Universe ◽  
Universe Of Discourse

Saxena-Easo Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) is a softcomputing method for forecasting using fuzzy concept. It doesn’t need any assumption like conventional forecasting method. Generally it’s focused on three important steps like percentage change as the universe of discourse, interval partition, and defuzzification. In this research, this method is applied to Indonesia’s inflation rate data. The aim of this research is to forecast Indonesia’s inflation rate in 2017 by using input from Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) process, Saxena-Easo FTS, and actual data from 1970-2016. ARIMA is focused on four steps like identifying, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting. The result for Indonesia’s inflation rate forecasting in 2017 is about 5.9182 using Saxena-Easo FTS. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is also computed to compare the accuracy rate from each method between Saxena-Easo FTS and ARIMA. RMSE from Saxena-Easo FTS is about 0.9743 while ARIMA is about 6.3046. Keywords: saxena-easo fuzzy time series, ARIMA, inflation rate, RMSE.

Enhanced Forecasting Accuracy of Fuzzy Time Series Model Based on Combined Fuzzy C-Mean Clustering with Particle Swam Optimization

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (02) ◽  
pp. 2050017
Author(s):  
Nghiem Van Tinh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Pso Algorithm ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Fuzzy C Means Clustering ◽  
Universe Of Discourse

Over the past 25 years, numerous fuzzy time series forecasting models have been proposed to deal the complex and uncertain problems. The main factors that affect the forecasting results of these models are partition universe of discourse, creation of fuzzy relationship groups and defuzzification of forecasting output values. So, this study presents a hybrid fuzzy time series forecasting model combined particle swarm optimization (PSO) and fuzzy C-means clustering (FCM) for solving issues above. The FCM clustering is used to divide the historical data into initial intervals with unequal size. After generating interval, the historical data is fuzzified into fuzzy sets with the aim to serve for establishing fuzzy relationship groups according to chronological order. Then the information obtained from the fuzzy relationship groups can be used to calculate forecasted value based on a new defuzzification technique. In addition, in order to enhance forecasting accuracy, the PSO algorithm is used for finding optimum interval lengths in the universe of discourse. The proposed model is applied to forecast three well-known numerical datasets (enrolments data of the University of Alabama, the Taiwan futures exchange —TAIFEX data and yearly deaths in car road accidents in Belgium). These datasets are also examined by using some other forecasting models available in the literature. The forecasting results obtained from the proposed model are compared to those produced by the other models. It is observed that the proposed model achieves higher forecasting accuracy than its counterparts for both first—order and high—order fuzzy logical relationship.

HEURISTIC BIVARIATE FORECASTING MODEL OF MULTI-ATTRIBUTE FUZZY TIME SERIES BASED ON FUZZY CLUSTERING

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (01) ◽  
pp. 167-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
GUOFANG NAN ◽  
SHUAIYIN ZHOU ◽  
JISONG KOU ◽  
MINQIANG LI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Bivariate Model ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Fuzzy C Means Clustering ◽  
The Universe ◽  
Universe Of Discourse

Fuzzy time series has been applied to forecast various domain problems because of its capability to deal with vagueness and incompleteness inherent in data. However, most existing fuzzy time series models cannot cope with multi-attribute time series and remain too subjective in the partition of the universe of discourse. Moreover, these models do not consider the trend factor and the corresponding external time series, which are highly relevant to target series. In the current paper, a heuristic bivariate model is proposed to improve forecasting accuracy, and the proposed model applies fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm to process multi-attribute fuzzy time series and to partition the universe of discourse. Meanwhile, the trend predictors are extracted in the training phase and utilized to select the order of fuzzy relations in the testing phase. Finally, the proper full use of the external series to assist forecasting is discussed. The performance of the proposed model is tested using actual time series including the enrollments at the University of Alabama, the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) and a sensor dataset. The experimental results show that the proposed model can be utilized for multi-attribute time series and significantly improves the average MAER to 1.19% when compared with other forecasting models.

scholarly journals Time Series Seasonal Analysis Based on Fuzzy Transforms

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ferdinando Di Martino ◽  
Salvatore Sessa
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Seasonal Forecasting ◽  
Weather Station ◽  
Fuzzy Transform ◽  
Italian Region ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Seasonal Analysis ◽  
The Universe ◽  
Universe Of Discourse

We define a new seasonal forecasting method based on fuzzy transforms. We use the best interpolating polynomial for extracting the trend of the time series and generate the inverse fuzzy transform on each seasonal subset of the universe of discourse for predicting the value of a an assigned output. Like first example, we use the daily weather dataset of the municipality of Naples (Italy) starting from data collected from 2003 till to 2015 making predictions on the following outputs: mean temperature, max temperature and min temperature, all considered daily. Like second example, we use the daily mean temperature measured at the weather station “Chiavari Caperana” in the Liguria Italian Region. We compare the results with our method, the average seasonal variation, ARIMA and the usual fuzzy transforms concluding that the best results are obtained under our approach in both examples.

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