scholarly journals EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset 2.0

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Stefaan Poedts ◽  
Andrea Lani ◽  
Camilla Scolini ◽  
Christine Verbeke ◽  
Nicolas Wijsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Adaptive Mesh Refinement ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Radiation Transport ◽  
Flux Rope ◽  
Virtual Space ◽  
Propagation Model ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
The Impact

Aims: This paper presents a H2020 project aimed at developing an advanced space weather forecasting tool, combining the MagnetoHydroDynamic (MHD) solar wind and coronal mass ejection (CME) evolution modelling with solar energetic particle (SEP) transport and acceleration model(s). The EUHFORIA 2.0 project will address the geoeffectiveness of impacts and mitigation to avoid (part of the) damage, including that of extreme events, related to solar eruptions, solar wind streams, and SEPs, with particular emphasis on its application to forecast geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and radiation on geospace. Methods: We will apply innovative methods and state-of-the-art numerical techniques to extend the recent heliospheric solar wind and CME propagation model EUHFORIA with two integrated key facilities that are crucial for improving its predictive power and reliability, namely (1) data-driven flux-rope CME models, and (2) physics-based, self-consistent SEP models for the acceleration and transport of particles along and across the magnetic field lines. This involves the novel coupling of advanced space weather models. In addition, after validating the upgraded EUHFORIA/SEP model, it will be coupled to existing models for GICs and atmospheric radiation transport models. This will result in a reliable prediction tool for radiation hazards from SEP events, affecting astronauts, passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft, and the impact of space weather events on power grid infrastructure, telecommunication, and navigation satellites. Finally, this innovative tool will be integrated into both the Virtual Space Weather Modeling Centre (VSWMC, ESA) and the space weather forecasting procedures at the ESA SSCC in Ukkel (Belgium), so that it will be available to the space weather community and effectively used for improved predictions and forecasts of the evolution of CME magnetic structures and their impact on Earth. Results: The results of the first six months of the EU H2020 project are presented here. These concern alternative coronal models, the application of adaptive mesh refinement techniques in the heliospheric part of EUHFORIA, alternative flux-rope CME models, evaluation of data-assimilation based on Karman filtering for the solar wind modelling, and a feasibility study of the integration of SEP models.

Predicting geo-effectiveness of CMEs with EUHFORIA coupled to OpenGGCM

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anwesha Maharana ◽  
Camilla Scolini ◽  
Joachim Raeder ◽  
Stefaan Poedts
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Flux Rope ◽  
Solar Wind Plasma ◽  
Geomagnetic Disturbance ◽  
Propagation Model ◽  
Magnetized Plasma ◽  
Future Work ◽  
The Impact

<div> <p>The <strong>EU</strong>ropean <strong>H</strong>eliospheric <strong>FOR</strong>ecasting <strong>I</strong>nformation <strong>A</strong>sset (<strong>EUHFORIA</strong>, Pomoell and Poedts, 2018) is a physics-based heliospheric and CME propagation model designed for space weather forecasting. Although EUHFORIA can predict the solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters at Earth, it is not designed to evaluate indices like Disturbance-storm-time (Dst) or Auroral Electrojet (AE) that quantify the impact of the magnetized plasma encounters on Earth’s magnetosphere. To overcome this limitation, we coupled EUHFORIA with <strong>Open</strong> <strong>G</strong>eospace <strong>G</strong>eneral <strong>C</strong>irculation <strong>M</strong>odel (<strong>OpenGGCM</strong>, Raeder et al, 1996) which is a magnetohydrodynamic model of Earth’s magnetosphere. In this coupling, OpenGGCM takes the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field obtained from EUHFORIA simulation as input to produce the magnetospheric and ionospheric parameters of Earth. We perform test runs to validate the coupling with real CME events modelled using flux rope models like Spheromak and FRi3D. We compare these simulation results with the indices obtained from OpenGGCM simulations driven by the measured solar wind data from spacecrafts like WIND. We further discuss how the choice of CME model and observationally constrained parameters influences the input parameters, and hence the geomagnetic disturbance indices estimated by OpenGGCM. We highlight limitations of the coupling and suggest improvements for future work. </p> </div>

scholarly journals Space weather: the solar perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuela Temmer
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Interplanetary Space ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
Stereo Mission ◽  
Interaction Regions ◽  
Near Future ◽  
First Time

AbstractThe Sun, as an active star, is the driver of energetic phenomena that structure interplanetary space and affect planetary atmospheres. The effects of Space Weather on Earth and the solar system is of increasing importance as human spaceflight is preparing for lunar and Mars missions. This review is focusing on the solar perspective of the Space Weather relevant phenomena, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, solar energetic particles (SEPs), and solar wind stream interaction regions (SIR). With the advent of the STEREO mission (launched in 2006), literally, new perspectives were provided that enabled for the first time to study coronal structures and the evolution of activity phenomena in three dimensions. New imaging capabilities, covering the entire Sun-Earth distance range, allowed to seamlessly connect CMEs and their interplanetary counterparts measured in-situ (so called ICMEs). This vastly increased our knowledge and understanding of the dynamics of interplanetary space due to solar activity and fostered the development of Space Weather forecasting models. Moreover, we are facing challenging times gathering new data from two extraordinary missions, NASA’s Parker Solar Probe (launched in 2018) and ESA’s Solar Orbiter (launched in 2020), that will in the near future provide more detailed insight into the solar wind evolution and image CMEs from view points never approached before. The current review builds upon the Living Reviews article by Schwenn from 2006, updating on the Space Weather relevant CME-flare-SEP phenomena from the solar perspective, as observed from multiple viewpoints and their concomitant solar surface signatures.

scholarly journals Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting

Space Weather ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 395-405 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Owens ◽  
T. S. Horbury ◽  
R. T. Wicks ◽  
S. L. McGregor ◽  
N. P. Savani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting

scholarly journals An integrated data-driven solar wind - CME numerical framework for space weather forecasting

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nishant M. Narechania ◽  
Ljubomir Nikolic ◽  
Lucie Freret ◽  
Hans De Sterck ◽  
Clinton P. T. Groth
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Coronal Magnetic Field ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Source Surface ◽  
Field Source ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
Semi Empirical

The development of numerical models and tools which have operational space weather potential is an increasingly important area of research. This study presents recent Canadian efforts toward the development of a numerical framework for Sun-to-Earth simulations of solar wind disturbances. This modular three-dimensional (3D) simulation framework is based on a semi-empirical data-driven approach to describe the solar corona and an MHD-based description of the heliosphere. In the present configuration, the semi-empirical component uses the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) and Schatten Current Sheet (SCS) models to derive the coronal magnetic field based on observed magnetogram data. Using empirical relations, solar wind properties are associated with this coronal magnetic field. Together with a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) model, this provides inner boundary conditions for a global MHD model which is used to describe interplanetary propagation of the solar wind and CMEs. The proposed MHD numerical approach makes use of advanced numerical techniques. The 3D MHD code employs a finite-volume discretization procedure with limited piecewise linear reconstruction to solve the governing partial-differential equations. The equations are solved on a body-fitted hexahedral multi-block cubed-sphere mesh and an efficient iterative Newton method is used for time-invariant simulations and an explicit time-marching scheme is applied for unsteady cases. Additionally, an efficient anisotropic block-based refinement technique provides significant reductions in the size of the computational mesh by locally refining the grid in selected directions as dictated by the flow physics. The capabilities of the framework for accurately capturing solar wind structures and forecasting solar wind properties at Earth are demonstrated. Furthermore, a comparison with previously reported results and future space weather forecasting challenges are discussed.

scholarly journals Influence of the CME orientation on the ICME propagation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karmen Martinić ◽  
Mateja Dumbović ◽  
Bojan Vršnak
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Flux Rope ◽  
Meridional Plane ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
In Situ Data ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Ambient Solar Wind

<p>Beyond certain distance the ICME propagation becomes mostly governed by the interaction of the ICME and the ambient solar wind. Configuration of the interplanetary magnetic field and features of the related ambient solar wind in the ecliptic and meridional plane are different. Therefore, one can expect that the inclination of the CME flux rope axis i.e. tilt, influences the propagation of the ICME itself. In order to study the relation between the tilt parameter and the ICME propagation we investigated isolated Earth-impacting CME-ICME evets in the time period from 2006. to 2014. We determined the CME tilt in the “near-Sun” environment from the 3D reconstruction of the CME, obtained by the Graduated Cylindrical Shell model using coronagraphic images provided by the STEREO and SOHO missions. We determined the tilt of the ICME in the “near-Earth” environment using in-situ data. We constrained our study to CME-ICME events that show no evidence of rotation while propagating, i.e. have a similar tilt in the “near-Sun” and “near-Earth” environment. We present preliminary results of our study and discuss their implications for space-weather forecasting using the drag-based(ensemble) [DB(E)M] model of heliospheric propagation.</p>

scholarly journals A note on using thermally driven solar wind models in MHD space weather simulations

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (S274) ◽  
pp. 102-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jens Pomoell ◽  
Rami Vainio
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Polytropic Index ◽  
Shock Physics ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
Mhd Simulations ◽  
Thermally Driven ◽  
Inner Heliosphere

AbstractOne of the challenges in constructing global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the inner heliosphere for, e.g., space weather forecasting purposes, is to correctly capture the acceleration and expansion of the solar wind. In many current models, the solar wind is driven by varying the polytropic index so that a desired heating is obtained. While such schemes can yield solar wind properties consistent with observations, they are not problem-free. In this work, we demonstrate by performing MHD simulations that altering the polytropic index affects the properties of propagating shocks significantly, which in turn affect the predicted space weather conditions. Thus, driving the solar wind with such a mechanism should be used with care in simulations where correctly capturing the shock physics is essential. As a remedy, we present a simple heating function formulation by which the polytropic wind can be used while still modeling the shock physics correctly.

Monitoring of Interplanetary Scintillation and Potential of Short-time Space Weather Forecasting

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 28-37
Author(s):  
I. V. Chashei ◽  
◽  
S. А. Tyul’bashev ◽  
Yu. V. Pisanko ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Interplanetary Scintillation ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
The Earth ◽  
First Case ◽  
Time Space ◽  
Interaction Regions ◽  
Short Time

Observations and initial analysis of interplanetary scintillation data are briefly described in the framework of the program for the solar wind monitoring with the modernized LPI LPA radio telescope that started in 2014. The examples of detecting interplanetary coronal mass injections (ICME) and co-rotating interaction regions (СIR) of different-speed flows are presented. It is shown that in the first case, enhancements in the scintillation level in extended sounded regions of solar wind are observed 20–30 hours before the arrival of the disturbances to the Earth; in the second case, the evening and night scintillation level decrease is observed several days before the compressed region of disturbances comes to the Earth. These features are considered as a base of using interplanetary scintillation monitoring data for short-time space weather forecasting.

scholarly journals SHORT-TERM SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING BASED ON THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD

2021 ◽  
pp. 42-46
Author(s):  
ANASTASIA SERGEEVNA NADTOCHY ◽  
◽  
DMITRIY VLADIMIROVICH FOMIN ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Space Weather ◽  
Nuclear Physics ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Calculated Data ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Launch Vehicles ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

The paper presents information on the results of short-term space weather forecasting for the Vostochny cosmodrome based on data on the electron flux density with energies above 2 MeV received from satellites from the operator's site of the Space Weather Forecast Center of the Moscow State University Institute of Nuclear Physics. The analysis of the calculated data on the level of near-Earth radiation, as a result of the use of various extrapolation methods, showed that the method of exponential smoothing is most effective for short-term space weather forecasting. Such forecasts can be used when planning launches of launch vehicles from spaceports.

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