Predicting geo-effectiveness of CMEs with EUHFORIA coupled to OpenGGCM

Author(s):  
Anwesha Maharana ◽  
Camilla Scolini ◽  
Joachim Raeder ◽  
Stefaan Poedts

<div> <p>The <strong>EU</strong>ropean <strong>H</strong>eliospheric <strong>FOR</strong>ecasting <strong>I</strong>nformation <strong>A</strong>sset (<strong>EUHFORIA</strong>, Pomoell and Poedts, 2018) is a physics-based heliospheric and CME propagation model designed for space weather forecasting. Although EUHFORIA can predict the solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters at Earth, it is not designed to evaluate indices like Disturbance-storm-time (Dst) or Auroral Electrojet (AE) that quantify the impact of the magnetized plasma encounters on Earth’s magnetosphere. To overcome this limitation, we coupled EUHFORIA with <strong>Open</strong> <strong>G</strong>eospace <strong>G</strong>eneral <strong>C</strong>irculation <strong>M</strong>odel (<strong>OpenGGCM</strong>, Raeder et al, 1996) which is a magnetohydrodynamic model of Earth’s magnetosphere. In this coupling, OpenGGCM takes the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field obtained from EUHFORIA simulation as input to produce the magnetospheric and ionospheric parameters of Earth. We perform test runs to validate the coupling with real CME events modelled using flux rope models like Spheromak and FRi3D. We compare these simulation results with the indices obtained from OpenGGCM simulations driven by the measured solar wind data from spacecrafts like WIND. We further discuss how the choice of CME model and observationally constrained parameters influences the input parameters, and hence the geomagnetic disturbance indices estimated by OpenGGCM. We highlight limitations of the coupling and suggest improvements for future work. </p> </div>

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Stefaan Poedts ◽  
Andrea Lani ◽  
Camilla Scolini ◽  
Christine Verbeke ◽  
Nicolas Wijsen ◽  
...  

Aims: This paper presents a H2020 project aimed at developing an advanced space weather forecasting tool, combining the MagnetoHydroDynamic (MHD) solar wind and coronal mass ejection (CME) evolution modelling with solar energetic particle (SEP) transport and acceleration model(s). The EUHFORIA 2.0 project will address the geoeffectiveness of impacts and mitigation to avoid (part of the) damage, including that of extreme events, related to solar eruptions, solar wind streams, and SEPs, with particular emphasis on its application to forecast geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and radiation on geospace. Methods: We will apply innovative methods and state-of-the-art numerical techniques to extend the recent heliospheric solar wind and CME propagation model EUHFORIA with two integrated key facilities that are crucial for improving its predictive power and reliability, namely (1) data-driven flux-rope CME models, and (2) physics-based, self-consistent SEP models for the acceleration and transport of particles along and across the magnetic field lines. This involves the novel coupling of advanced space weather models. In addition, after validating the upgraded EUHFORIA/SEP model, it will be coupled to existing models for GICs and atmospheric radiation transport models. This will result in a reliable prediction tool for radiation hazards from SEP events, affecting astronauts, passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft, and the impact of space weather events on power grid infrastructure, telecommunication, and navigation satellites. Finally, this innovative tool will be integrated into both the Virtual Space Weather Modeling Centre (VSWMC, ESA) and the space weather forecasting procedures at the ESA SSCC in Ukkel (Belgium), so that it will be available to the space weather community and effectively used for improved predictions and forecasts of the evolution of CME magnetic structures and their impact on Earth. Results: The results of the first six months of the EU H2020 project are presented here. These concern alternative coronal models, the application of adaptive mesh refinement techniques in the heliospheric part of EUHFORIA, alternative flux-rope CME models, evaluation of data-assimilation based on Karman filtering for the solar wind modelling, and a feasibility study of the integration of SEP models.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Réka Winslow ◽  
Amy Murphy ◽  
Nathan Schwadron ◽  
Noé Lugaz ◽  
Wenyuan Yu ◽  
...  

<p>Small flux ropes (SFRs) are interplanetary magnetic flux ropes with durations from a few minutes to a few hours. We have built a comprehensive catalog of SFRs at Mercury using magnetometer data from the orbital phase of the MESSENGER mission (2011-2015). In the absence of solar wind plasma measurements, we developed strict identification criteria for SFRs in the magnetometer observations, including conducting force-free field fits for each flux rope. We identified a total of 48 events that met our strict criteria, with events ranging in duration from 2.5 minutes to 4 hours. Using superposed epoch analysis, we obtained the generic SFR magnetic field profile at Mercury. Due to the large variation in Mercury's heliocentric distance (0.31-0.47 AU), we split the data into two distance bins. We found that the average SFR profile is more symmetric "farther from the Sun", in line with the idea that SFRs form closer to the Sun and undergo a relaxation process in the solar wind. Based on this result, as well as the SFR durations and the magnetic field strength fall-off with heliocentric distance, we infer that the SFRs observed at Mercury are expanding as they propagate with the solar wind. We also determined that the SFR occurrence frequency is nearly four times as high at Mercury as for similarly detected events at 1 AU. Most interestingly, we found two SFR populations in our dataset, one likely generated in a quasi-periodic formation process near the heliospheric current sheet, and the other formed away from the current sheet in isolated events.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karmen Martinić ◽  
Mateja Dumbović ◽  
Bojan Vršnak

<p>Beyond certain distance the ICME propagation becomes mostly governed by the interaction of the ICME and the ambient solar wind. Configuration of the interplanetary magnetic field and features of the related ambient solar wind in the ecliptic and meridional plane are different. Therefore, one can expect that the inclination of the CME flux rope axis i.e. tilt, influences the propagation of the ICME itself. In order to study the relation between the tilt parameter and the ICME propagation we investigated isolated Earth-impacting CME-ICME evets in the time period from 2006. to 2014. We determined the CME tilt in the “near-Sun” environment from the 3D reconstruction of the CME, obtained by the Graduated Cylindrical Shell model using coronagraphic images provided by the STEREO and SOHO missions. We determined the tilt of the ICME in the “near-Earth” environment using in-situ data. We constrained our study to CME-ICME events that show no evidence of rotation while propagating, i.e. have a similar tilt in the “near-Sun” and “near-Earth” environment. We present preliminary results of our study and discuss their implications for space-weather forecasting using the drag-based(ensemble) [DB(E)M] model of heliospheric propagation.</p>


2001 ◽  
Vol 203 ◽  
pp. 541-543
Author(s):  
M. Vandas ◽  
A. Geranios

The magnetic cloud of November 17-18, 1975 is analyzed and it is shown that measurements of magnetic field and solar wind plasma are consistent with the interpretation that this magnetic cloud is a dual-polarity flux rope which consists of a core and an annular region. The core has a strong magnetic field; the annular region has a higher plasma density and opposite magnetic polarity.


2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (S354) ◽  
pp. 363-366
Author(s):  
Belén Acosta ◽  
Denisse Pastén ◽  
Pablo S. Moya

AbstractWe have studied turbulent plasma as a complex system applying the method known as Horizontal Visibility Graph (HVG) to obtain the Kullback-Leibler Divergence (KLD) as a first approach to characterize the reversibility of the time series of the magnetic fluctuations. For this, we have developed the method on Particle In Cell (PIC) simulations for a magnetized plasma and on solar wind magnetic time series, considering slow and fast wind. Our numerical results show that low irreversibility values are verified for magnetic field time series associated with Maxwellian distributions. In addition, considering the solar wind plasma, our preliminary results seem to indicate that greater irreversibility degrees are reached by the magnetic field associated with slow solar wind.


2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (S264) ◽  
pp. 452-454
Author(s):  
S. N. Samsonov ◽  
N. G. Skryabin

AbstractStudying by the authors of paper of solar wind parameters, namely: density, speed and temperature and also a module of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) intensity has allowed to find out in them fluctuations with the period of 399 days. From references it is known that this period coincidence with the synodic period of Jupiter. So long as close by the given period another source of such fluctuations is not known we have assumed that fluctuations with the period of 399 days are fluctuations with the synodic period of Jupiter. The change of the solar wind plasma parameters and IMF intensity can lead to the change of the Earth's magnetic field parameters and, as a consequence, to the change of charged particle fluxes in the Earth's magnetosphere. On this assumption the IMF intensity in the Earth's vicinity, geomagnetic disturbance (Kp-index) and riometer absorption for the years of 1986-1996 have been analyzed. The analysis of the data has shown the presence of certain changes of these physical parameters with the period of 399 days. When the Earth and Jupiter were found to be on the same magnetic field line, the IMF intensity was decreasing up to 3.0±0.57, the geomagnetic activity and riometer absorption were decreasing up to 5.2±1.46% and 9.4±2.63%, respectively.


2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (S327) ◽  
pp. 67-70
Author(s):  
J. Palacios ◽  
C. Cid ◽  
E. Saiz ◽  
A. Guerrero

AbstractWe have investigated the case of a coronal mass ejection that was eroded by the fast wind of a coronal hole in the interplanetary medium. When a solar ejection takes place close to a coronal hole, the flux rope magnetic topology of the coronal mass ejection (CME) may become misshapen at 1 AU as a result of the interaction. Detailed analysis of this event reveals erosion of the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) magnetic field. In this communication, we study the photospheric magnetic roots of the coronal hole and the coronal mass ejection area with HMI/SDO magnetograms to define their magnetic characteristics.


Author(s):  
Timur Sh. KOMBAEV ◽  
Mikhail K. ARTEMOV ◽  
Valentin K. SYSOEV ◽  
Dmitry S. DEZHIN

It is proposed to develop a small spacecraft for an experiment using high-temperature superconductors (HTS) and shape memory materials. The purpose of the experiment is to test a technological capability of creating a strong magnetic field on the small spacecraft using HTS and shape memory materials for deployed large-area structures, and study the magnetic field interaction with the solar wind plasma and the resulting force impact on the small spacecraft. This article is of a polemical character and makes it possible to take a fresh look at the applicability of new technologies in space-system engineering. Key words: high-temperature superconductors, shape memory materials, solar wind, spacecraft.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harlan Spence ◽  
Kristopher Klein ◽  
HelioSwarm Science Team

<p>Recently selected for phase A study for NASA’s Heliophysics MidEx Announcement of Opportunity, the HelioSwarm Observatory proposes to transform our understanding of the physics of turbulence in space and astrophysical plasmas by deploying nine spacecraft to measure the local plasma and magnetic field conditions at many points, with separations between the spacecraft spanning MHD and ion scales.  HelioSwarm resolves the transfer and dissipation of turbulent energy in weakly-collisional magnetized plasmas with a novel configuration of spacecraft in the solar wind. These simultaneous multi-point, multi-scale measurements of space plasmas allow us to reach closure on two science goals comprised of six science objectives: (1) reveal how turbulent energy is transferred in the most probable, undisturbed solar wind plasma and distributed as a function of scale and time; (2) reveal how this turbulent cascade of energy varies with the background magnetic field and plasma parameters in more extreme solar wind environments; (3) quantify the transfer of turbulent energy between fields, flows, and ion heat; (4) identify thermodynamic impacts of intermittent structures on ion distributions; (5) determine how solar wind turbulence affects and is affected by large-scale solar wind structures; and (6) determine how strongly driven turbulence differs from that in the undisturbed solar wind. </p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 923 (1) ◽  
pp. 116
Author(s):  
Mihailo M. Martinović ◽  
Kristopher G. Klein ◽  
Tereza Ďurovcová ◽  
Benjamin L. Alterman

Abstract Instabilities described by linear theory characterize an important form of wave–particle interaction in the solar wind. We diagnose unstable behavior of solar wind plasma between 0.3 and 1 au via the Nyquist criterion, applying it to fits of ∼1.5M proton and α particle Velocity Distribution Functions (VDFs) observed by Helios I and II. The variation of the fraction of unstable intervals with radial distance from the Sun is linear, signaling a gradual decline in the activity of unstable modes. When calculated as functions of the solar wind velocity and Coulomb number, we obtain more extreme, exponential trends in the regions where collisions appear to have a notable influence on the VDF. Instability growth rates demonstrate similar behavior, and significantly decrease with Coulomb number. We find that for a nonnegligible fraction of observations, the proton beam or secondary component might not be detected, due to instrument resolution limitations, and demonstrate that the impact of this issue does not affect the main conclusions of this work.


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