scholarly journals Influence of the CME orientation on the ICME propagation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karmen Martinić ◽  
Mateja Dumbović ◽  
Bojan Vršnak
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Flux Rope ◽  
Meridional Plane ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
In Situ Data ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Ambient Solar Wind

<p>Beyond certain distance the ICME propagation becomes mostly governed by the interaction of the ICME and the ambient solar wind. Configuration of the interplanetary magnetic field and features of the related ambient solar wind in the ecliptic and meridional plane are different. Therefore, one can expect that the inclination of the CME flux rope axis i.e. tilt, influences the propagation of the ICME itself. In order to study the relation between the tilt parameter and the ICME propagation we investigated isolated Earth-impacting CME-ICME evets in the time period from 2006. to 2014. We determined the CME tilt in the “near-Sun” environment from the 3D reconstruction of the CME, obtained by the Graduated Cylindrical Shell model using coronagraphic images provided by the STEREO and SOHO missions. We determined the tilt of the ICME in the “near-Earth” environment using in-situ data. We constrained our study to CME-ICME events that show no evidence of rotation while propagating, i.e. have a similar tilt in the “near-Sun” and “near-Earth” environment. We present preliminary results of our study and discuss their implications for space-weather forecasting using the drag-based(ensemble) [DB(E)M] model of heliospheric propagation.</p>

scholarly journals An integrated data-driven solar wind - CME numerical framework for space weather forecasting

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nishant M. Narechania ◽  
Ljubomir Nikolic ◽  
Lucie Freret ◽  
Hans De Sterck ◽  
Clinton P. T. Groth
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Coronal Magnetic Field ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Source Surface ◽  
Field Source ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
Semi Empirical

The development of numerical models and tools which have operational space weather potential is an increasingly important area of research. This study presents recent Canadian efforts toward the development of a numerical framework for Sun-to-Earth simulations of solar wind disturbances. This modular three-dimensional (3D) simulation framework is based on a semi-empirical data-driven approach to describe the solar corona and an MHD-based description of the heliosphere. In the present configuration, the semi-empirical component uses the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) and Schatten Current Sheet (SCS) models to derive the coronal magnetic field based on observed magnetogram data. Using empirical relations, solar wind properties are associated with this coronal magnetic field. Together with a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) model, this provides inner boundary conditions for a global MHD model which is used to describe interplanetary propagation of the solar wind and CMEs. The proposed MHD numerical approach makes use of advanced numerical techniques. The 3D MHD code employs a finite-volume discretization procedure with limited piecewise linear reconstruction to solve the governing partial-differential equations. The equations are solved on a body-fitted hexahedral multi-block cubed-sphere mesh and an efficient iterative Newton method is used for time-invariant simulations and an explicit time-marching scheme is applied for unsteady cases. Additionally, an efficient anisotropic block-based refinement technique provides significant reductions in the size of the computational mesh by locally refining the grid in selected directions as dictated by the flow physics. The capabilities of the framework for accurately capturing solar wind structures and forecasting solar wind properties at Earth are demonstrated. Furthermore, a comparison with previously reported results and future space weather forecasting challenges are discussed.

Predicting geo-effectiveness of CMEs with EUHFORIA coupled to OpenGGCM

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anwesha Maharana ◽  
Camilla Scolini ◽  
Joachim Raeder ◽  
Stefaan Poedts
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Flux Rope ◽  
Solar Wind Plasma ◽  
Geomagnetic Disturbance ◽  
Propagation Model ◽  
Magnetized Plasma ◽  
Future Work ◽  
The Impact

<div> <p>The <strong>EU</strong>ropean <strong>H</strong>eliospheric <strong>FOR</strong>ecasting <strong>I</strong>nformation <strong>A</strong>sset (<strong>EUHFORIA</strong>, Pomoell and Poedts, 2018) is a physics-based heliospheric and CME propagation model designed for space weather forecasting. Although EUHFORIA can predict the solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters at Earth, it is not designed to evaluate indices like Disturbance-storm-time (Dst) or Auroral Electrojet (AE) that quantify the impact of the magnetized plasma encounters on Earth’s magnetosphere. To overcome this limitation, we coupled EUHFORIA with <strong>Open</strong> <strong>G</strong>eospace <strong>G</strong>eneral <strong>C</strong>irculation <strong>M</strong>odel (<strong>OpenGGCM</strong>, Raeder et al, 1996) which is a magnetohydrodynamic model of Earth’s magnetosphere. In this coupling, OpenGGCM takes the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field obtained from EUHFORIA simulation as input to produce the magnetospheric and ionospheric parameters of Earth. We perform test runs to validate the coupling with real CME events modelled using flux rope models like Spheromak and FRi3D. We compare these simulation results with the indices obtained from OpenGGCM simulations driven by the measured solar wind data from spacecrafts like WIND. We further discuss how the choice of CME model and observationally constrained parameters influences the input parameters, and hence the geomagnetic disturbance indices estimated by OpenGGCM. We highlight limitations of the coupling and suggest improvements for future work. </p> </div>

Analysis of the Internal structure of the Streamer Blow Out Observed by the Parker Solar Probe during the First Solar Encounter

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla ◽  
Adam Szabo ◽  
Kelly E. Korreck ◽  
Nathalia Alzate ◽  
Laura A. Balmaceda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Internal Structure ◽  
Flux Rope ◽  
Internal Force ◽  
Slow Solar Wind ◽  
Angle Distribution ◽  
The Hours ◽  
The Magnetic Field

<p>We present an analysis of the internal structure of a coronal mass ejection (CME) detected by in situ<span> </span>instruments onboard the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) spacecraft during its first solar encounter. On 2018 November 11 at 23:53 UT, the FIELDS magnetometer measured an increase in strength of the magnetic field as well as a coherent change in the field direction. The SWEAP instrument simultaneously detected the low proton temperature and signatures of bi-directionality in the electron pitch angle distribution (PAD). These signatures are indicative of a CME embedded in the slow solar wind. In conjunction with PSP was the STEREO A spacecraft, which enabled the remote observation of a streamer blow-out by the SECCHI suite of instruments. The source at the Sun of the slow and well-structured<span> fl</span>ux-rope was identified in an overlying streamer.</p><p>Our detailed inspection of the internal transient structure magnetic properties suggests high complexity in deviations from an ideal<span> </span>flux rope 3D topology. Reconstructions of the magnetic field conguration reveal a highly distorted structure consistent with the highly elongated `bubble' observed remotely. A double-ring substructure observed in the SECCHI-COR2 eld of view (FOV) is suggestive of a double internal<span> </span>flux rope. Furthermore, we describe a scenario in which mixed topology of a closed<span> </span>flux rope is combined with the magnetically open structure, which helps explain the<span> </span>flux dropout observed in the measurements of the electron PAD. Our justication for this is the plethora of structures observed by the EUV imager (SECCHI-EUVI) in the hours preceding the streamer blowout evacuation. Finally, taking advantage of the unique observations from PSP, we explore the first stages of the effects of coupling with the solar wind and the evolutionary processes in the magnetic structure. We found evidence of bifurcated current sheets in the structure boundaries suggestive of magnetic reconnection. Our analysis of the internal force imbalance indicates that internal Lorentz forces continue to dominate the evolution of the structure in the COR2 FOV and serves as the main driver of the internal<span> fl</span>ux rope distortion as detected in situ at PSP solar distance.</p>

scholarly journals Origin of the Wang–Sheeley–Arge solar wind model

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil R. Sheeley Jr.
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Solar Physics ◽  
Solar Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Model ◽  
Joint Session ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
American Astronomical Society

Abstract. A correlation between solar wind speed at Earth and the amount of magnetic field line expansion in the corona was verified in 1989 using 22 years of solar and interplanetary observations. We trace the evolution of this relationship from its birth 15 years earlier in the Skylab era to its current use as a space weather forecasting technique. This paper is the transcript of an invited talk at the joint session of the Historical Astronomy Division and the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society during its 224th meeting in Boston, MA, on 3 June 2014.

scholarly journals EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset 2.0

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Stefaan Poedts ◽  
Andrea Lani ◽  
Camilla Scolini ◽  
Christine Verbeke ◽  
Nicolas Wijsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Adaptive Mesh Refinement ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Radiation Transport ◽  
Flux Rope ◽  
Virtual Space ◽  
Propagation Model ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
The Impact

Aims: This paper presents a H2020 project aimed at developing an advanced space weather forecasting tool, combining the MagnetoHydroDynamic (MHD) solar wind and coronal mass ejection (CME) evolution modelling with solar energetic particle (SEP) transport and acceleration model(s). The EUHFORIA 2.0 project will address the geoeffectiveness of impacts and mitigation to avoid (part of the) damage, including that of extreme events, related to solar eruptions, solar wind streams, and SEPs, with particular emphasis on its application to forecast geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and radiation on geospace. Methods: We will apply innovative methods and state-of-the-art numerical techniques to extend the recent heliospheric solar wind and CME propagation model EUHFORIA with two integrated key facilities that are crucial for improving its predictive power and reliability, namely (1) data-driven flux-rope CME models, and (2) physics-based, self-consistent SEP models for the acceleration and transport of particles along and across the magnetic field lines. This involves the novel coupling of advanced space weather models. In addition, after validating the upgraded EUHFORIA/SEP model, it will be coupled to existing models for GICs and atmospheric radiation transport models. This will result in a reliable prediction tool for radiation hazards from SEP events, affecting astronauts, passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft, and the impact of space weather events on power grid infrastructure, telecommunication, and navigation satellites. Finally, this innovative tool will be integrated into both the Virtual Space Weather Modeling Centre (VSWMC, ESA) and the space weather forecasting procedures at the ESA SSCC in Ukkel (Belgium), so that it will be available to the space weather community and effectively used for improved predictions and forecasts of the evolution of CME magnetic structures and their impact on Earth. Results: The results of the first six months of the EU H2020 project are presented here. These concern alternative coronal models, the application of adaptive mesh refinement techniques in the heliospheric part of EUHFORIA, alternative flux-rope CME models, evaluation of data-assimilation based on Karman filtering for the solar wind modelling, and a feasibility study of the integration of SEP models.

scholarly journals Flux rope axis geometry of magnetic clouds deduced from in situ data

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (S300) ◽  
pp. 265-268
Author(s):  
Miho Janvier ◽  
Pascal Démoulin ◽  
Sergio Dasso
Keyword(s):  
Interplanetary Medium ◽  
Magnetic Cloud ◽  
Flux Rope ◽  
Magnetic Clouds ◽  
Direct Integration ◽  
Axis Orientation ◽  
In Situ Data ◽  
Geometrical Features ◽  
Wide Range

AbstractMagnetic clouds (MCs) consist of flux ropes that are ejected from the low solar corona during eruptive flares. Following their ejection, they propagate in the interplanetary medium where they can be detected by in situ instruments and heliospheric imagers onboard spacecraft. Although in situ measurements give a wide range of data, these only depict the nature of the MC along the unidirectional trajectory crossing of a spacecraft. As such, direct 3D measurements of MC characteristics are impossible. From a statistical analysis of a wide range of MCs detected at 1 AU by the Wind spacecraft, we propose different methods to deduce the most probable magnetic cloud axis shape. These methods include the comparison of synthetic distributions with observed distributions of the axis orientation, as well as the direct integration of observed probability distribution to deduce the global MC axis shape. The overall shape given by those two methods is then compared with 2D heliospheric images of a propagating MC and we find similar geometrical features.

Comparison of Heliospheric In Situ Data with the Quasi‐steady Solar Wind Models

2008 ◽  
Vol 674 (2) ◽  
pp. 1158-1166 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. T. Lepri ◽  
S. K. Antiochos ◽  
P. Riley ◽  
L. Zhao ◽  
T. H. Zurbuchen
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
In Situ Data

scholarly journals Photospheric magnetic field of an eroded-by-solar-wind coronal mass ejection

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (S327) ◽  
pp. 67-70
Author(s):  
J. Palacios ◽  
C. Cid ◽  
E. Saiz ◽  
A. Guerrero
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Coronal Mass Ejection ◽  
Coronal Hole ◽  
Interplanetary Medium ◽  
Flux Rope ◽  
Magnetic Characteristics ◽  
Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection ◽  
Fast Wind ◽  
Mass Ejection

AbstractWe have investigated the case of a coronal mass ejection that was eroded by the fast wind of a coronal hole in the interplanetary medium. When a solar ejection takes place close to a coronal hole, the flux rope magnetic topology of the coronal mass ejection (CME) may become misshapen at 1 AU as a result of the interaction. Detailed analysis of this event reveals erosion of the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) magnetic field. In this communication, we study the photospheric magnetic roots of the coronal hole and the coronal mass ejection area with HMI/SDO magnetograms to define their magnetic characteristics.

scholarly journals Space weather: the solar perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuela Temmer
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Space Weather ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Interplanetary Space ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Space Weather Forecasting ◽  
Stereo Mission ◽  
Interaction Regions ◽  
Near Future ◽  
First Time

AbstractThe Sun, as an active star, is the driver of energetic phenomena that structure interplanetary space and affect planetary atmospheres. The effects of Space Weather on Earth and the solar system is of increasing importance as human spaceflight is preparing for lunar and Mars missions. This review is focusing on the solar perspective of the Space Weather relevant phenomena, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, solar energetic particles (SEPs), and solar wind stream interaction regions (SIR). With the advent of the STEREO mission (launched in 2006), literally, new perspectives were provided that enabled for the first time to study coronal structures and the evolution of activity phenomena in three dimensions. New imaging capabilities, covering the entire Sun-Earth distance range, allowed to seamlessly connect CMEs and their interplanetary counterparts measured in-situ (so called ICMEs). This vastly increased our knowledge and understanding of the dynamics of interplanetary space due to solar activity and fostered the development of Space Weather forecasting models. Moreover, we are facing challenging times gathering new data from two extraordinary missions, NASA’s Parker Solar Probe (launched in 2018) and ESA’s Solar Orbiter (launched in 2020), that will in the near future provide more detailed insight into the solar wind evolution and image CMEs from view points never approached before. The current review builds upon the Living Reviews article by Schwenn from 2006, updating on the Space Weather relevant CME-flare-SEP phenomena from the solar perspective, as observed from multiple viewpoints and their concomitant solar surface signatures.

Statistical relations between in-situ measured Bz component and thermospheric density variations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sofia Kroisz ◽  
Lukas Drescher ◽  
Manuela Temmer ◽  
Sandro Krauss ◽  
Barbara Süsser-Rechberger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Satellite Orbit ◽  
Solar Wind Plasma ◽  
Statistical Investigation ◽  
Neutral Density ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Short Term

<p>Through advanced statistical investigation and evaluation of solar wind plasma and magnetic field data, we investigate the statistical relation between the magnetic field B<sub>z</sub> component, measured at L1, and Earth’s thermospheric neutral density. We will present preliminary results of the time series analyzes using in-situ plasma and magnetic field measurements from different spacecraft in near Earth space (e.g., ACE, Wind, DSCOVR) and relate those to derived thermospheric densities from various satellites (e.g., GRACE, CHAMP). The long and short term variations and dependencies in the solar wind data are related to variations in the neutral density of the thermosphere and geomagnetic indices. Special focus is put on the specific signatures that stem from coronal mass ejections and stream or corotating interaction regions.  The results are used to develop a novel short-term forecasting model called SODA (Satellite Orbit DecAy). This is a joint study between TU Graz and University of Graz funded by the FFG Austria (project “SWEETS”).</p>

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