Incorporating Antecedent Soil Moisture into Streamflow Forecasting within the North Platte River Basin, Wyoming

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cody L. Moser ◽  
Tyrel L. Soukup ◽  
Glenn A. Tootle ◽  
Greg L. Kerr
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Antecedent Soil Moisture ◽  
Platte River ◽  
The North ◽  
Platte River Basin

scholarly journals RECONSTRUCTIONS OF HYDROLOGIC VARIABLES IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 59-71
Author(s):  
Sally Rose Anderson ◽  
Amanda Bowen ◽  
Glenn Tootle ◽  
Abdoul Oubeidillah
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Platte River ◽  
The North ◽  
Hydrologic Variability ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Moisture Sensitive ◽  
Platte River Basin

Reconstructions of hydrologic variables are commonly created using tree-ring chronologies (TRCs) to generate information about historic climate and potential future variability. This study used TRCs to reconstruct annual streamflow, April 1st Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), and soil moisture in the North Platte River Basin (NPRB). Stepwise linear regression was performed to determine which of the 55 moisture sensitive TRCs were the best predictors of hydrologic variation. The regressions explained 63% of the variability in streamflow, 55% of the variability in SWE, and 66% of the variability in soil moisture. This study then maximized the overlapping period of records which resulted in a decrease in the percent of variability explained but indicated that the regression models were stable for long reconstruction periods. This study successfully reconstructed all three hydrologic variables for NPRB to 1438 or earlier. Temporal wet and dry periods for streamflow and SWE were closely aligned while soil moisture did not follow similar temporal patterns. This was likely due to a natural “lag” between soil moisture and streamflow / SWE given soil moisture tends to retain antecedent signals. The availability of reconstructed hydrologic data in NPRB allows for a better understanding of the long-term hydrologic variability in the region.

scholarly journals Incorporating Antecedent Soil Moisture into Streamflow Forecasting

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdoul Oubeidillah ◽  
Glenn Tootle ◽  
Thomas Piechota
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Predictor Variable ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Antecedent Soil Moisture ◽  
Natural Resource Conservation ◽  
The North ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Natural Resource Conservation Service

This study incorporates antecedent (preceding) soil moisture into forecasting streamflow volumes within the North Platte River Basin, Colorado/Wyoming (USA). The incorporation of antecedent soil moisture accounts for infiltration and can improve streamflow predictions. Current Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) forecasting methods are replicated, and a comparison is drawn between current NRCS forecasts and proposed forecasting methods using antecedent soil moisture. Current predictors used by the NRCS in regression-based streamflow forecasting include precipitation, streamflow persistence (previous season streamflow volume) and snow water equivalent (SWE) from SNOTEL (snow telemetry) sites. Proposed methods utilize antecedent soil moisture as a predictor variable in addition to the predictors noted above. A decision system was used to segregate data based on antecedent soil moisture conditions (e.g., dry, wet or normal). Principal Components Analysis and Stepwise Linear Regression were applied to generate streamflow forecasts, and numerous statistics were determined to measure forecast skill. The results show that when incorporating antecedent soil moisture, the “poor” forecasts (i.e., years in which the NRCS forecast differed greatly from the observed value) were improved, while the overall forecast skill remains unchanged. The research presented shows the need to increase the monitoring and collection of soil moisture data in mountainous western U.S. watersheds, as this parameter results in improved forecast skill.

scholarly journals IMPACTS OF BEETLE KILL ON MODELED STREAMFLOW RESPONSE IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 27-39
Author(s):  
Abdoul Oubeidillah ◽  
Glenn Tootle ◽  
Venkat Lakshmi
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Tree Cover ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Platte River ◽  
The North ◽  
Hydrologic Impacts ◽  
Streamflow Response ◽  
Platte River Basin

A beetle epidemic across the western United States has resulted in the death of millions of acres of forests. This beetle outbreak, referred to as “beetle kill”, has caused many to believe that such dramatic changes in land cover could potentially alter the hydrology of the impacted regions. One of the most important hydrological processes that beetle kill has the potential to impact is streamflow. This research evaluates the hydrologic impacts on streamflow from land cover change due to beetle kill in the North Platte River Basin (NPRB) (Colorado and Wyoming, USA) by utilizing the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. Utilizing the National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) dataset from 2005 / 2006 (onset of “beetle kill”) to more current conditions (2009), a decrease in tree cover of 16% to 40% was estimated. This decrease in tree cover was applied to VIC modeled streamflow from 1950 to 2000. The VIC model predicted a minimal increase in streamflow of approximately 5% which was not statistically significant.

Preliminary investigation of emerging suburban landsliding in Gisborne, New Zealand

2022 ◽  
pp. qjegh2021-087
Author(s):  
Matthew E. Cook ◽  
Martin S. Brook ◽  
Jon Tunnicliffe ◽  
Murry Cave ◽  
Noah P. Gulick
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
High Intensity ◽  
Preliminary Investigation ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Antecedent Soil Moisture ◽  
Field Surveys ◽  
Coastal City ◽  
The North

Recently uplifted, soft Pleistocene sediments in northern New Zealand are particularly vulnerable to landsliding because they are often underlain by less permeable, clay-rich Neogene mudstone/siltstone rocks. Typically, instability is rainfall-induced, often due to a high intensity rainfall event from extra-tropical cyclones, following wetter months when antecedent soil moisture has increased. Using remote sensing, field surveys and laboratory testing, we report on some emerging slope instability hazards in the eastern suburbs of the coastal city of Gisborne, on the North Island. Retrogressive failure of the main landslide (at Wallis Road) is ongoing and has already led to the abandonment of one home, while an adjacent landslide (at Titirangi Drive) appears to be in an incipient phase of failure. The Wallis Road landslide has been particularly active from mid-2017, with slumping of the headscarp area transitioning to a constrained mudflow downslope, which then descends a cliff before terminating on the beach. In contrast, the incipient Titirangi Drive landslide at present displays much more subtle effects of deformation. While activity at both landslides appears to be linked to rainfall-induced increases in soil moisture, this is due to the effects of prolonged periods of rainfall rather than the passage of high intensity cyclonic storms.

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