Temporal-spatial analysis of an age-space structured foot-and-mouth disease model with Dirichlet boundary condition

AbstractWhilst emergency vaccination may help contain foot-and-mouth disease in a previously FMD-free country, its use complicates post-outbreak surveillance and the recovery of FMD-free status. A structured surveillance program is required that can distinguish between vaccinated and residually infected animals, and provide statistical confidence that the virus is no longer circulating in previously infected areas.Epidemiological models have been well-used to investigate the potential benefits of emergency vaccination during a control progam and when/where/whom to vaccinate in the face of finite supplies of vaccine and personnel. Less well studied are post-outbreak issues such as the management of vaccinated animals and the implications of having used vaccination during surveillance regimes to support proof-of-freedom. This paper presents enhancements to the Australian Animal Disease Model (AADIS) that allow comparisons of different post-outbreak surveillance sampling regimes for establishing proof-of-freedom from FMD.A case study is provided that compares a baseline surveillance sampling regime (derived from current OIE guidelines), with an alternative less intensive sampling regime. It was found that when vaccination was not part of the control program, a reduced sampling intensity significantly reduced the number of samples collected and the cost of the post-outbreak surveillance program, without increasing the risk of missing residual infected herds.

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Temporal and spatial analysis of hand, foot, and mouth disease in relation to climate factors: A study in the Mekong Delta region, Vietnam

The Science of The Total Environment ◽

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.01.006 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 581-582 ◽

pp. 766-772 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

Huong Xuan Nguyen ◽

Cordia Chu ◽

Huong Lien Thi Nguyen ◽

Ha Thanh Nguyen ◽

Cuong Manh Do ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Spatial Analysis ◽

Mekong Delta ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Climate Factors ◽

Delta Region ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Temporal And Spatial

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Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease – Model intercomparison

The Veterinary Journal ◽

10.1016/j.tvjl.2008.11.011 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 183 (3) ◽

pp. 278-286 ◽

Cited By ~ 36

Author(s):

John Gloster ◽

Andrew Jones ◽

Alison Redington ◽

Laura Burgin ◽

Jens H. Sørensen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Disease Model ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Foot And Mouth

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Foot and mouth disease model verification and ‘relative validation’ through a formal model comparison

Revue Scientifique et Technique de l OIE ◽

10.20506/rst.30.2.2051 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 30 (2) ◽

pp. 527-540 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

R.L. SANSON ◽

N. HARVEY ◽

M.G. GARNER ◽

M.A. STEVENSON ◽

T.M. DAVIES ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Model Comparison ◽

Formal Model ◽

Disease Model ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Model Verification ◽

Foot And Mouth

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Lyapunov Stability Analysis of a Delayed Foot-and-Mouth Disease Model with Animal Vaccination

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society ◽

10.1155/2020/3891057 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 ◽

pp. 1-13

Author(s):

Tinashe B. Gashirai ◽

Senelani D. Hove-Musekwa ◽

Steady Mushayabasa

Keyword(s):

Disease Virus ◽

Disease Model ◽

Intervention Strategy ◽

Ecological Factors ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Epidemic Dynamics ◽

Mouth Disease Virus ◽

Foot And Mouth

Foot-and-mouth disease virus remains one of the most important livestock diseases in sub-Saharan Africa and several Southeast Asian countries. Vaccination of livestock has been recognized as an important tool for the control of foot-and-mouth disease virus. However, this intervention strategy has some limitations. Generally, vaccine production is a complex multistep process which involves development, manufacturing, and delivery processes, and through this extensive process, some challenges such as poor vaccine storage often arise. More often, these challenges alter the validity of the vaccination. Foot-and-mouth disease virus epidemic dynamics have been extensively explored, but understanding the role of vaccination validity on virus endemicity is lacking. We present a time-delayed foot-and-mouth disease model that incorporates relevant biological and ecological factors, vaccination effects, and disease carriers. We determined the basic reproduction number and demonstrated that it is an important metric for persistence and extinction of the disease in the community. Numerical illustrations were utilised to support some of the analytical results.

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