A system dynamics modelling approach to studying the increasing prevalence of people with intellectual developmental disorders in New South Wales

2016 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lynette Lee ◽  
Mark Heffernan ◽  
Geoffrey McDonnell ◽  
Stephanie D. Short ◽  
Vasi Naganathan
Keyword(s):  
Health Service ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Developmental Disorders ◽  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Prevalence Ratio ◽  
Service Planning ◽  
Self Report ◽  
South Wales

Objective The aims of this study were to estimate the prevalence count of people with intellectual developmental disorders (IDD) in New South Wales (NSW) in 2003, by age groups, and to forecast their prevalence until 2043. Methods Administrative data obtained from NSW government departments of education, pensions, health and disability were used to profile the number of people whose characteristics met the criteria for ‘intellectual developmental disorders’ who had received services in 2003. These figures were compared with published tables of NSW data from the national self-report Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers (SDAC) of 2003 to estimate the likely prevalence of people with intellectual developmental disorders, by age groups in that year. The results were then used as baseline figures in a computational system dynamics model of the aging chain of people with these disorders, built to project prevalence to 2043. Results The number of people who met the criteria for having intellectual developmental disorder in NSW in 2003 was estimated to be 57000 (a ratio of 85 per 10000), with 32000 aged 0–15 years, 15000 aged 16–39 years, 9000 aged 40–64 years and 1000 aged 65+ years. Using these figures as baseline, the computer simulation predicted a total increase to 77225 people in 2013 and 135905 people by 2043. By 2043, the number of children with intellectual developmental disorders will have doubled, from 32000 to 59480, and the number of adults will have tripled, from 25000 to 76420. Conclusions This modelling technique forecast an increase in the prevalence count of people with intellectual developmental disorders in NSW over the period 2003–43 from 57000 (85 per 10000) to 135905 (135 per 10000). These predictions may have important implications for the planning of specialist health services for this group of people. What is known about the topic? The prevalence ratio of people with intellectual developmental disorders is quoted at lying between 1% and 2% of the Australian population, depending on the definition adopted. It is known that life expectancy for this group of people is increasing. Many people with intellectual developmental disorders have multiple service demands and there is a need to understand the prevalence count in various age groups in order to plan effectively for their health service needs. What does this paper add? This paper confirms a NSW prevalence ratio of people with intellectual developmental disorders of approximately 0.85% for the purposes of specialist health service planning at the beginning of the 21st century, and this is predicted to increase to 1.35% over a 40-year period. The paper demonstrates that there will be significant growth in the number of adults surviving to old age between 2003 and 2043. What are the implications for practitioners? It is known that as people with intellectual developmental disorders age, their health promoting care needs increase, as do their dependencies on special supports. Planning for the allocation of resources associated with the welfare and healthcare of people with intellectual developmental disorders may need to be focused on this anticipated increase in the number of older people with the condition.

scholarly journals Broad Spectrum Epidemiological Contribution of Cannabis and Other Substances to the Teratological Profile of Northern New South Wales: Geospatial and Causal Inference Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert Stuart Reece ◽  
Gary Kenneth Hulse
Keyword(s):  
Body Wall ◽  
Septal Defect ◽  
New South ◽  
Ductus Arteriosus ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Prevalence Ratio ◽  
Cannabis Use ◽  
Anal Stenosis ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Other Substances

Abstract Background: Whilst cannabis commercialization is occurring rapidly guided by highly individualistic public narratives, evidence that all congenital anomalies (CA) increase alongside cannabis use in Canada, a link with 21 CA’s in Hawaii, and rising CA’s in Colorado indicate that transgenerational effects can be significant and impact public health. It was therefore important to study Northern New South Wales (NNSW) where cannabis use is high. Methods: Design: Cohort. 2008-2015. Setting: NNSW and Queensland (QLD), Australia. Participants. Whole populations. Exposures. Tobacco, alcohol, cannabis. Source: National Drug Strategy Household Surveys 2010, 2013. Main Outcomes. CA Rates. NNSW-QLD comparisons. Geospatial and causal regression. Results: Cardiovascular, respiratory and gastrointestinal anomalies rose with falling tobacco and alcohol but rising cannabis use rates across Queensland. Maternal age NNSW-QLD was not different (2008-2015: 4265/22084 v. 96473/490514 >35 years/total, Chi.Sq.=1.687, P=0.194). A higher rate of NNSW cannabis-related than cannabis-unrelated defects occurred (prevalence ratio (PR)=2.13, 95%C.I. 1.80-2.52, P=3.24x10-19). CA’s rose more potently with rising cannabis than with rising tobacco or alcohol use. Exomphalos and gastroschisis had the highest NNSW:QLD PR (6.29(2.94-13.48) and 5.85(3.54-9.67)) and attributable fraction in the exposed (84.11%(65.95-92.58%) and 82.91%(71.75-89.66%), P=2.83x10-8 and P=5.62x10-15). In multivariable geospatial models cannabis was significantly linked with cardiovascular (atrial septal defect, ventricular septal defect, tetralogy of Fallot, patent ductus arteriosus), genetic (chromosomal defects, Downs syndrome), gastrointestinal (small intestinal atresia), body wall (gastroschisis, diaphragmatic hernia) and other (hypospadias) (AVTPCDSGDH) CA’s. In linear modelling cannabis use was significantly linked with anal stenosis, congenital hydrocephalus and Turner syndrome (ACT) and was significantly linked in borderline significant models (model P<0.1) with microtia, microphthalmia, and transposition of the great vessels. At robust and mixed effects inverse probability weighted multivariable regression cannabis was related to 18 defects. 16/17 E-Values in spatial models were >1.25 ranging up to 5.2x1013 making uncontrolled confounding unlikely. Conclusions: These results suggest that population level CA’s react more strongly to small rises in cannabis use than tobacco or alcohol; cardiovascular, chromosomal, body wall and gastrointestinal CA’s rise significantly with small increases in cannabis use; that cannabis is a bivariate correlate of AVTPCDSGDH and ACT anomalies, is robust to adjustment for other substances; and is causal.

scholarly journals Broad Spectrum Epidemiological Contribution of Cannabis, Tobacco and Alcohol to the Teratological Profile of Northern New South Wales: Geospatial and Causal Inference Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert Stuart Reece ◽  
Gary Kenneth Hulse
Keyword(s):  
Body Wall ◽  
Septal Defect ◽  
New South ◽  
Ductus Arteriosus ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Prevalence Ratio ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Cannabis Use ◽  
Anal Stenosis ◽  
South Wales

Abstract Background. Whilst cannabis commercialization is occurring rapidly guided by highly individualistic public narratives, evidence that all congenital anomalies (CA) increase alongside cannabis use in Canada, a link with 21 CA’s in Hawaii, and rising CA’s in Colorado indicate that transgenerational effects can be significant and impact public health. It was therefore important to study Northern New South Wales (NNSW) where cannabis use is high.Methods. Design: Cohort. 2008–2015. Setting: NNSW and Queensland (QLD), Australia. Participants. Whole populations. Exposures. Tobacco, alcohol, cannabis. Source: National Drug Strategy Household Surveys 2010, 2013. Main Outcomes. CA Rates. NNSW-QLD comparisons. Geospatial and causal regression.Results. Cardiovascular, respiratory and gastrointestinal anomalies rose with falling tobacco and alcohol but rising cannabis use rates across Queensland. Maternal age NNSW-QLD was not different (2008–2015: 4,265/22,084 v. 96,473/490,514 > 35 years, Chi.Sq.=1.687, P = 0.194). A higher rate of NNSW cannabis-related than cannabis-unrelated defects occurred (prevalence ratio (PR) = 2.13, 95%C.I. 1.80–2.52, P = 3.24 × 10− 19). CA’s rose more potently with rising cannabis than with rising tobacco or alcohol use. Exomphalos and gastroschisis had the highest NNSW:QLD PR (6.29(2.94–13.48) and 5.85(3.54–9.67)) and attributable fraction in the exposed (84.11%(65.95–92.58%) and 82.91%(71.75–89.66%), P = 2.83 × 10− 8 and P = 5.62 × 10− 15). In multivariable geospatial models cannabis was significantly linked with cardiovascular (atrial septal defect, ventricular septal defect, tetralogy of Fallot, patent ductus arteriosus), genetic (chromosomal defects, Downs syndrome), gastrointestinal (small intestinal atresia), body wall (gastroschisis, diaphragmatic hernia) and other (hypospadias) (AVTPCDSGDH) CA’s. In linear modelling cannabis use was significantly linked with anal stenosis, congenital hydrocephalus and Turner syndrome (ACT) and was significantly linked in borderline significant models (model P < 0.1) with microtia, microphthalmia, and transposition of the great vessels. At robust and mixed effects inverse probability weighted multivariable regression cannabis was related to 18 defects. E-Values in spatial models were generally > 1.3 ranging up to 3.8 × 1030 making uncontrolled confounding unlikely.Conclusions. These results suggest that population level CA’s react more strongly to small rises in cannabis use than tobacco or alcohol; cardiovascular, chromosomal, body wall and gastrointestinal CA’s rise significantly with small increases in cannabis use; that cannabis is a bivariate correlate of AVTPCDSGDH and ACT anomalies, is robust to adjustment for other substances; and is causal.

The influence of various factors on survival rate to weaning of Merino lambs. I. Sex, strain, location, and age of ewe for single-born lambs

1965 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 981 ◽  
Author(s):  
J Lax ◽  
Turner H Newton
Keyword(s):  
Survival Rate ◽  
New South ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Strain Differences ◽  
Marked Rise ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Improved Pasture

The influence of sex, strain, location, and age of ewe on survival rate to weaning of single-born Merino lambs has been examined in two sets of data: the strain trial, involving five strains run without selection at each of three locations (Cunnamulla, Qld.; Armidale, on the northern tablelands of New South Wales; Deniliquin, in the Riverina area of New South Wales), with six age groups of ewes; and the same five strains later included in selection groups at Armidale with seven age groups of ewes. The strain trial at Armidale ran mainly on native, and the selection groups mainly on improved pastures. Female lambs had a higher survival rate than either castrated or entire males, the differences in lambs weaned per lamb born being 0.03 and 0.04 respectively. No strain differences could be regarded as statistically significant, and neither could the strain x location interaction in the strain trial. Mean survival rates for the strains ranged from 0.673 to 0.786 on the Armidale native and from 0.802 to 0.850 on the Armidale improved pasture, from 0.746 to 0.859 at Cunnamulla, and from 0.838 to 0.894 at Deniliquin. The strains did not rank consistently in the same order. Location had a marked effect on survival rate, the means being 0.744 for the native and 0.824 for the improved pasture at Armidale, 0.810 at Cunnamulla, and 0.868 at Deniliquin. Age of ewe had a marked influence in the poorest environment (Armidale native pasture), survival rate rising with age and later falling sharply. The effect was less marked in the intermediate environments (Armidale improved pasture and Cunnamulla) and negligible at Deniliquin. The patterns at Cunnamulla and Deniliquin are confirmed by data from other experiments on these stations. Survival rate is one component of number of lambs weaned. The other component, number of lambs born, has a higher mean value at Deniliquin than Cunnamulla, but shows a strong association with age of ewe in both environments. Number of lambs born responds rapidly to selection, but no information is yet available concerning the likely response in survival rate. If improvement in environment can raise the survival rate, particularly in the youngest and oldest ewes, then selection for number of lambs born, combined with improved environment, should lead to a marked rise in the number of lambs weaned.

scholarly journals Dementia and intentional and unintentional poisoning in older people: a 10 year review of hospitalization records in New South Wales, Australia – CORRIGENDUM

2015 ◽  
Vol 27 (12) ◽  
pp. 2101-2101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca J. Mitchell ◽  
Lara A. Harvey ◽  
Henry Brodaty ◽  
Brian Draper ◽  
Jacqueline C. T. Close
Keyword(s):  
Health Service ◽  
Older People ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Aged Care ◽  
Typographical Error ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Care Facilities ◽  
Aged Care Facilities

The authors would like to apologise for a typographical error in the abstract of the above mentioned article.In the results section of the abstract on the first page of the article, the first odds ratio that refers to ‘aged care facilities’ should be (OR 5.44; 95% CI 4.43–6.67) and the second odds ratio that refers to health service facilities should be (OR 4.56; 95%CI 4.06–5.13).

Seasonal changes in Pelage of Miniopterus schreibersi blepotis (Chiroptera) in north-eastern NSW.

1963 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 290 ◽  
Author(s):  
PD Dwyer
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Changes ◽  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Adult Females ◽  
Early Autumn ◽  
South Wales ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Reproductive Cycles

In M. s. blepotis, of north-eastern New South Wales, the annual moult occurs during the summer and early autumn and lasts about 14.5 weeks. Yearlings having their first moult usually initiate this some 3 weeks after the adults commence. In many adult females the moult is inhibited during lactation and again during the winter so that some individuals may be found moulting in all months of the year. The importance of considering annual pelage characters when using colour taxonomically in bats is emphasized, and possible relationships between moult and reproductive cycles are indicated. In addition the use of pelage characteristics, in conjunction with reproductive criteria as a means of recognizing age groups of M. s. blepotis, is discussed.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document