Statistical analysis of fire frequency models for Catalonia (NE Spain), 1975 - 1998) based on fire scar maps from Landsat MSS data

2004 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Díaz-Delgado ◽  
Francisco Lloret ◽  
Xavier Pons
Keyword(s):  
Forest Management ◽  
Rotation Period ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Natural Fire ◽  
Fire Scar ◽  
Fire Intervals ◽  
Ne Spain

This paper estimates fire frequency in Catalonia (NE Spain) for the last quarter of the 20th Century (1975–1998) from historical burned area maps. Remote sensing images provided perimeters of fires ≥ 30 ha, which were used to characterize the temporal patterns of fire occurrence in Catalonia. Several fire frequency models were used to reproduce the observed pattern of wildfires occurrence in the study period. Natural fire rotation period was estimated to be 133 years. Poisson tests were carried out to check random fire occurrence either along the time period or across the analysed region. Observed fires were not randomly generated either in space or in time, despite being sampled using two different plot sizes. This sampling design was also used for Mean Fire Interval (MFI) analysis, which allowed us to significantly fit a Weibull distribution to the observed proportion of fire intervals (for both sample sizes), enabling us to estimate the hazard of burning, mortality, and survivorship functions. Finally, MFI was also applied to forest regions of Catalonia, which are defined according to forest management plans based on their homogeneous climatic conditions. Such an analysis revealed relevant differences in forest management and their consequences on fire occurrence.

scholarly journals Tendencies of Fire Development in the Forests of Ukraine

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 106
Author(s):  
Yevhen Melnyk ◽  
Vladimir Voron
Keyword(s):  
Forest Management ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Necessary Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Management Zones ◽  
Wildfire Occurrence ◽  
Management Zone

Preservation and increase of forest area are necessary conditions for the biosphere functioning. Forest ecosystems in most parts of the world are affected by fires. According to the latest data, the forest fire situation has become complicated in Ukraine, and this issue requires ongoing investigation. The aim of the study was to analyse the dynamics of wildfires in Ukrainian forests over recent decades and to assess the complex indicator of wildfire occurrence in various forest management zones and administrative regions. The average annual complex indicator of fire occurrence, in terms of wildfire number and burned area, was studied in detail in the forests of various administrative regions and forest management zones in Ukraine from 1998 to 2017. The results show that fire occurrence in both the number and area of fires can vary significantly in various forest management zones. There is a very noticeable difference in these indicators in some administrative regions within a particular forest management zone. The data show that the number of forest fires depends not only on the natural and climatic conditions of such regions, but also on anthropogenic factors.

Assessing accuracy of point fire intervals across landscapes with simulation modelling

2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (9) ◽  
pp. 1605-1614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell A. Parsons ◽  
Emily K. Heyerdahl ◽  
Robert E. Keane ◽  
Brigitte Dorner ◽  
Joseph Fall
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Maximum Error ◽  
Simulation Modelling ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Forest Types ◽  
Fire Scar ◽  
Fire Intervals ◽  
In Fire

We assessed accuracy in point fire intervals using a simulation model that sampled four spatially explicit simulated fire histories. These histories varied in fire frequency and size and were simulated on a flat landscape with two forest types (dry versus mesic). We used three sampling designs (random, systematic grids, and stratified). We assessed the sensitivity of estimates of Weibull median probability fire intervals (WMPI) to sampling design and to factors that degrade the fire scar record: failure of a tree to record a fire and loss of fire-scarred trees. Accuracy was affected by all of the factors investigated and generally varied with fire regime type. The maximum error was from degradation of the record, primarily because degradation reduced the number of intervals from which WMPI was estimated. The sampling designs were roughly equal in their ability to capture overall WMPI, regardless of fire regime, but the gridded design yielded more accurate estimates of spatial variation in WMPI. Accuracy in WMPI increased with increasing number of points sampled for all fire regimes and sampling designs, but the number of points needed to obtain accurate estimates was greater for fire regimes with complex spatial patterns of fire intervals than for those with relatively homogeneous patterns.

Comparing methods of reconstructing fire history using fire scars in a southwestern United States ponderosa pine forest

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 855-867 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan L Van Horne ◽  
Peter Z Fulé
Keyword(s):  
Pinus Ponderosa ◽  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Sampling Methods ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Fire Scars ◽  
Fire Scar ◽  
Targeted Sampling ◽  
Fire Intervals

Fire scars have been used to understand the historical role of fire in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex P. & C. Laws.) ecosystems, but sampling methods and interpretation of results have been criticized for being statistically invalid and biased and for leading to exaggerated estimates of fire frequency. We compared "targeted" sampling, random sampling, and grid-based sampling to a census of all 1479 fire-scarred trees in a 1 km2 study site in northern Arizona. Of these trees, 1246 were sufficiently intact to collect cross-sections; of these, 648 had fire scars that could be cross-dated to the year of occurrence in the 200-year analysis period. Given a sufficient sample size (approximately n ≥ 50), we concluded that all tested sampling methods resulted in accurate estimates of the census fire frequency, with mean fire intervals within 1 year of the census mean. We also assessed three analytical techniques: (1) fire intervals from individual trees, (2) the interval between the tree origin and the first scar, and (3) proportional filtering. "Bracketing" fire regime statistics to account for purported uncertainty associated with targeted sampling was not useful. Quantifying differences in sampling approaches cannot resolve all the limitations of fire-scar methods, but does strengthen interpretation of these data.

scholarly journals Drought Modulated Boreal Forest Fire Occurrence and Linkage with La Nina Events in Altai Mountains, Northwest China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunming Shi ◽  
Ying Liang ◽  
Cong Gao ◽  
Fengjun Zhao ◽  
Qiuhua Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drought Stress ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Boreal Forests ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
La Nina

Warming-induced drought stress and El Nino associated summer precipitation failure are responsible for increased forest fire intensities of tropical and temperate forests in Asia and Australia. However, both effects are unclear for boreal forests, the largest biome and carbon stock over land. Here we combined fire frequency, burned area and climate data in the Altai boreal forests, the southmost extension of Siberia boreal forest into China, and explored their link with ENSO (El Nino and South Oscillation). Surprisingly, both summer drought severity and fire occurrence have shown significant (P<0.05) teleconnections with La Nina events of the previous year, and therefore provide an important reference for forest fire prediction and prevention in Altai. Despite a significant warming trend, the increased moisture over Altai has largely offset the effect of warming-induced drought stress, and lead to an insignificant fire frequency trend in the last decades, and largely reduced burned area since the 1980s. The reduced burned area could also benefit from the fire suppression efforts and greatly increased investment in fire prevention since 1987.

scholarly journals ABOUT THE CONDITION AND FIRE-FIGHTING MEASURES OF PROTECTION IN THE BRYANSK FORESTRY

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 189-198
Author(s):  
Борис Ковалев ◽  
Boris Kovalev ◽  
Наталия Сакович ◽  
Nataliya Sakovich ◽  
Евгений Христофоров ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Management ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Sandy Loam ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Fire Fighting ◽  
Resource Potential ◽  
Natural Fire ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Management Measures

Bryansk forestry is located in the north-east of the Bryansk region, in the territories of the Bryansk and Karachev administrative districts, with a total area of 62,339 hectares, including 59,219 hectares of forest, and 16593 ha of forest cultures. Forests of the forest range are classified as protective, they are used in recreational, water-protective, environmental-forming purposes, grow on sands, moraines, sandy loam, loam. Forest management in the Bryansk forestry is aimed at rational forest management and management, enhancement of the forest resource potential, protection and protection of forests, expansion and rational use of forests through the systematic implementation of a set of forest management measures, growing forests to meet the needs of the Bryansk region in wood. The climatic conditions in the area of Bryansk forestry are mainly favorable for forest-forming coniferous and deciduous species. However, in recent years, dry periods of different duration and intensity have regularly occurred, which create conditions for the occurrence of fires. Research indicators that for the period from 2003 to 2015 in the territory of the forestry there were 2039 fires, a total area of 4,499.9 hectares. Only in 2014, the damage from forest fires amounted to 17434.2 thousand rubles, while directly to extinguish fires spent 1,434.2 thousand rubles. In 2015, the main causes of fires are: the human factor - 66 fires; grass fires - 27 fires; through the fault of the railway -10; other reasons - 3 fires and others. Elimination of forest fires in the forestry is carried out by land means, while the artificial and natural fire barriers created in advance, in particular, created with the help of a tractor, aggregated by the device for laying and reconstructing mineralized strips, and fire-fighting mineralized strips, are of great help in eliminating fires. In order to improve the microclimate in the tractor cab, the authors propose to use a control pedal with a hermetic terminal. Timely detection of fire and liquidation of a fire, reduces economic, natural, technological and social damage

scholarly journals Contradictions and Continuities: A Historical Context to Euro-American Settlement Era Fires of the Lake States, USA.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jed Meunier
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Scar ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Lake States ◽  
Historical Accounts

Abstract BackgroundThe Lake States experienced unprecedented land use changes during Euro-American settlement (settlement) including large, destructive fires. Forest changes were radical in this region and largely attributed to anomalous settlement era fires in slash (cumulation of tops and branches) following cutover logging. In this study I place settlement era fires in a historical context by examining fire scar data in comparison to historical accounts and investigate fire-vegetation-climate relationships within a 400-year context.ResultsSettlement era fires (1851–1947) were less frequent than historical fires (1548–1850) with little evidence that slash impacted fire frequency or occurrence at site or ecoregion scales. Only one out of 25 sites had more frequent settlement era fires and that site was a pine forest that had never been harvested. Settlement era fires were similar across disparate ecoregions and forest types including in areas with very different land use history. Settlement fires tended to burn during significantly dry periods, the same conditions driving large fires for the past 400 years. The burned area in the October 8, 1871 Peshtigo Fire was comprised of mesic forests where fuels were always abundant and high-severity fires would be expected given the conditions in 1871. Furthermore, slash would not have been a major contributor to fire behavior or effects in the Peshtigo Fire.ConclusionsHistorical records, like written accounts of fires and settlement era survey records, provide a reference point for landscape changes but lack temporal depth to understand forest dynamics or provide a mechanistic understanding of changes. While settlement land use changes of Lake States forests were pervasive, fires were not the ultimate degrading factor, but rather likely one of the few natural processes still at work.

scholarly journals Assessing the predictability of fire occurrence and area burned across phytoclimatic regions in Spain

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Bedia ◽  
S. Herrera ◽  
J. M. Gutiérrez
Keyword(s):  
Fire Protection ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Test Model ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Annual Variability

Abstract. Most fire protection agencies throughout the world have developed forest fire risk forecast systems, usually building upon existing fire danger indices and meteorological forecast data. In this context, the daily predictability of wildfires is of utmost importance in order to allow the fire protection agencies to issue timely fire hazard alerts. In this study, we address the predictability of daily fire occurrence using the components of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and related variables calculated from the latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) reanalysis, ERA-Interim. We develop daily fire occurrence models in peninsular Spain for the period 1990–2008 and, considering different minimum burned area thresholds for fire definition, assess their ability to reproduce the inter-annual fire frequency variability. We based the analysis on a phytoclimatic classification aiming the stratification of the territory into homogeneous units in terms of climatic and fuel type characteristics, allowing to test model performance under different climate/fuel conditions. We then extend the analysis in order to assess the predictability of monthly burned areas. The sensitivity of the models to the level of spatial aggregation of the data is also evaluated. Additionally, we investigate the gain in model performance with the inclusion of socioeconomic and land use/land cover (LULC) covariates in model formulation. Fire occurrence models have attained good performance in most of the phytoclimatic zones considered, being able to faithfully reproduce the inter-annual variability of fire frequency. Total area burned has exhibited some dependence on the meteorological drivers, although model performance was poor in most cases. We identified temperature and some FWI system components as the most important explanatory variables, highlighting the adequacy of the FWI system for fire occurrence prediction in the study area. The results were improved when using aggregated data across regions compared to when data were sampled at the grid-box level. The inclusion of socioeconomic and LULC covariates contributed marginally to the improvement of the models, and in most cases attained no relevant contribution to total explained variance – excepting northern Spain, where anthropogenic factors are known to be the major driver of fires. Models of monthly fire counts performed better in the case of fires larger than 0.1 ha, and for the rest of the thresholds (1, 10 and 100 ha) the daily occurrence models improved the predicted inter-annual variability, indicating the added value of daily models. Fire frequency predictions may provide a preferable basis for past fire history reconstruction, long-term monitoring and the assessment of future climate impacts on fire regimes across regions, posing several advantages over burned area as a response variable. Our results leave the door open to the development a more complex modelling framework based on daily data from numerical climate model outputs based on the FWI system.

scholarly journals Drought-Modulated Boreal Forest Fire Occurrence and Linkage with La Nina Events in Altai Mountains, Northwest China

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 956
Author(s):  
Chunming Shi ◽  
Ying Liang ◽  
Cong Gao ◽  
Qiuhua Wang ◽  
Lifu Shu
Keyword(s):  
Drought Stress ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Boreal Forests ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
La Nina

Warming-induced drought stress and El Nino-associated summer precipitation failure are responsible for increased forest fire intensities of tropical and temperate forests in Asia and Australia. However, both effects are unclear for boreal forests, the largest biome and carbon stock over land. Here, we combined fire frequency, burned area, and climate data in the Altai boreal forests, the southmost extension of Siberia’s boreal forest into China, and explored their link with El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Surprisingly, both summer drought severity and fire occurrence showed significant (p < 0.05) correlation with La Nina events of the previous year and therefore provide an important reference for forest fire prediction and prevention in Altai. Despite a significant warming trend, the increased moisture over Altai has largely offset the effect of warming-induced drought stress and led to an insignificant fire frequency trend in the last decades, resulting in largely reduced burned area since the 1980s. The reduced burned area can also be attributed to fire suppression efforts and greatly increased investment in fire prevention since 1987.

scholarly journals Modelling fire frequency and area burned across phytoclimatic regions in Spain using reanalysis data and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
pp. 4891-4924 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Bedia ◽  
S. Herrera ◽  
J. M. Gutiérrez
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Area Burned

Abstract. We develop fire occurrence and burned area models in peninsular Spain, an area of high variability in climate and fuel types, for the period 1990–2008. We based the analysis on a phytoclimatic classification aiming to the stratification of the territory into homogeneous units in terms of climatic and fuel type characteristics, allowing to test model performance under different climatic and fuel conditions. We used generalized linear models (GLM) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) as modelling algorithms and temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed, taken from the ERA-Interim reanalysis, as well as the components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System as predictors. We also computed the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as an additional predictor for the models of burned area. We found two contrasting fire regimes in terms of area burned and number of fires: one characterized by a bimodal annual pattern, characterizing the Nemoral and Oro-boreal phytoclimatic types, and another one exhibiting an unimodal annual cycle, with the fire season concentrated in the summer months in the Mediterranean and Arid regions. The fire occurrence models attained good skill in most of the phytoclimatic zones considered, yielding in some zones notably high correlation coefficients between the observed and modelled inter–annual fire frequencies. Total area burned also exhibited a high dependence on the meteorological drivers, although their ability to reproduce the observed annual burned area time series was poor in most cases. We identified temperature and some FWI system components as the most important explanatory variables, and also SPEI in some of the burned area models, highlighting the adequacy of the FWI system for fire modelling applications and leaving the door opened to the development a more complex modelling framework based on these predictors. Furthermore, we demonstrate the potential usefulness of ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the reconstruction of historical fire-climate relationships at the scale of analysis. Fire frequency predictions may provide a preferable basis for past fire history reconstruction, long-term monitoring and the assessment of future climate impacts on fire regimes across regions, posing several advantages over burned area as response variable.

scholarly journals Demographic Effects of Severe Fire in Montane Shrubland on Tasmania’s Central Plateau

Fire ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Judy A. Foulkes ◽  
Lynda D. Prior ◽  
Steven W. J. Leonard ◽  
David M. J. S. Bowman
Keyword(s):  
Woody Species ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Large Area ◽  
Seedling Regeneration ◽  
Central Plateau ◽  
Conservation Area ◽  
Severe Fire ◽  
Representative Area

Australian montane sclerophyll shrubland vegetation is widely considered to be resilient to infrequent severe fire, but this may not be the case in Tasmania. Here, we report on the vegetative and seedling regeneration response of a Tasmanian non-coniferous woody montane shrubland following a severe fire, which burned much of the Great Pine Tier in the Central Plateau Conservation Area during the 2018–2019 fire season when a historically anomalously large area was burned in central Tasmania. Our field survey of a representative area burned by severe crown fire revealed that more than 99% of the shrubland plants were top-killed, with only 5% of the burnt plants resprouting one year following the fire. Such a low resprouting rate means the resilience of the shrubland depends on seedling regeneration from aerial and soil seedbanks or colonization from plants outside the burned area. Woody species’ seedling densities were variable but generally low (25 m−2). The low number of resprouters, and reliance on seedlings for recovery, suggest the shrubland may not be as resilient to fire as mainland Australian montane shrubland, particularly given a warming climate and likely increase in fire frequency.

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