Prediction of daily sea surface temperature using artificial neural networks

2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (12) ◽  
pp. 4214-4231 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. G. Aparna ◽  
Selrina D’Souza ◽  
N. B. Arjun
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Artificial Neural

scholarly journals Basin-Scale Prediction of Sea Surface Temperature with Artificial Neural Networks

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (7) ◽  
pp. 1441-1455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kalpesh Patil ◽  
M. C. Deo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural

AbstractThe prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) on the basis of artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be viewed as complementary to numerical SST predictions, and it has fairly sustained in the recent past. However, one of its limitations is that such ANNs are site specific and do not provide simultaneous spatial information similar to the numerical schemes. In this work we have addressed this issue by presenting basin-scale SST predictions based on the operation of a very large number of individual ANNs simultaneously. The study area belongs to the basin of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) having coordinates of 30°N–30°S, 30°–120°E. The network training and testing are done on the basis of HadISST data of the past 140 yr. Monthly SST anomalies are predicted at 3813 nodes in the basin and over nine time steps into the future with more than 20 million ANN models. The network testing indicated that the prediction skill of ANNs is attractive up to certain lead times depending on the subbasin. The ANN models performed well over both the western Indian Ocean (WIO) and eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) regions up to 5 and 4 months lead time, respectively, as judged by the error statistics of the correlation coefficient and the normalized root-mean-square error. The prediction skill of the ANN models for the TIO region is found to be better than the physics-based coupled atmosphere–ocean models. It is also observed that the ANNs are capable of providing an advanced warning of the Indian Ocean dipole as well as abnormal basin warming.

scholarly journals Wavelet Analysis of Seasonal Rainfall Variability of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Its Teleconnection to Global Sea Surface Temperature, and Its Forecasting by an Artificial Neural Network

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (5) ◽  
pp. 1771-1791 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Helmy Elsanabary ◽  
Thian Yew Gan
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Mean Square Errors ◽  
Global Sea Surface Temperature

Abstract Rainfall is the primary driver of basin hydrologic processes. This article examines a recently developed rainfall predictive tool that combines wavelet principal component analysis (WPCA), an artificial neural networks-genetic algorithm (ANN-GA), and statistical disaggregation into an integrated framework useful for the management of water resources around the upper Blue Nile River basin (UBNB) in Ethiopia. From the correlation field between scale-average wavelet powers (SAWPs) of the February–May (FMAM) global sea surface temperature (SST) and the first wavelet principal component (WPC1) of June–September (JJAS) seasonal rainfall over the UBNB, sectors of the Indian, Atlantic, and Pacific Oceans where SSTs show a strong teleconnection with JJAS rainfall in the UBNB (r ≥ 0.4) were identified. An ANN-GA model was developed to forecast the UBNB seasonal rainfall using the selected SST sectors. Results show that ANN-GA forecasted seasonal rainfall amounts that agree well with the observed data for the UBNB [root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) between 0.72 and 0.82, correlation between 0.68 and 0.77, and Hanssen–Kuipers (HK) scores between 0.5 and 0.77], but the results in the foothills region of the Great Rift Valley (GRV) were poor, which is expected since the variability of WPC1 mainly comes from the highlands of Ethiopia. The Valencia and Schaake model was used to disaggregate the forecasted seasonal rainfall to weekly rainfall, which was found to reasonably capture the characteristics of the observed weekly rainfall over the UBNB. The ability to forecast the UBNB rainfall at a season-long lead time will be useful for an optimal allocation of water usage among various competing users in the river basin.

scholarly journals Modelo de Previsão Hidrológica Utilizando Redes Neurais Artificiais: Um Estudo de Caso na Bacia do Rio Xingu - Altamira-PA

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arilson Galdino da Silva ◽  
Adriana R. G. Castro ◽  
Alen Costa Vieira
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Xingu River ◽  
River Bed ◽  
The City

Knowledge about the extent of river bed overflow is extremely necessary for the determination of areas at risk. The City of Altamira-PA, located on the banks of the Xingu River, historically suffers from extreme events of floods that provoke floods, causing great damages to the population. Considering the problem, this paper presents a monthly level prediction system of the Xingu River based on neural networks perceptron of multiple layers. For the development of the system, precipitacion data were used in the basin and sub-basins of the Xingu River, and SST information (Sea Surface Temperature) from 1979 to 2016. The satisfactory results demonstrate the great applicability of the artificial neural networks to the problem. Resumo O conhecimento acerca da amplitude do transbordamento dos leitos fluviais é extremamente necessário para determinação deáreas de risco. A cidade de Altamira-PA, localizada às margens do rio Xingu, vem sofrendo com casos extremos de cheias que tendem a provocar inundações, resultando em severos prejuízos para a sua população. Considerando o problema, este artigo apresenta a proposta de um sistema de previsão de nível mensal do Rio Xingu baseado em Redes Neurais Artificiais Perceptron de múltiplas camadas. Para o desenvolvimento do sistema foram utilizados dados de precipitação na bacia e sub-bacias do Rio Xingu, e informações de Temperatura da Superfície do Mar (TSM) do período de 1979 a 2016. Os resultados satisfatórios obtidos demonstram a grande aplicabilidade das Redes Neurais Artificiais para o problema de previsão de cheias.

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