Posterior Mode Estimation by Extended Kalman Filtering for Multivariate Dynamic Generalized Linear Models

1992 ◽  
Vol 87 (418) ◽  
pp. 501-509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ludwig Fahrmeir
Keyword(s):  
Generalized Linear Models ◽  
Kalman Filtering ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Extended Kalman Filtering ◽  
Mode Estimation ◽  
Posterior Mode ◽  
Posterior Mode Estimation

How to extend Elo: a Bayesian perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Ingram
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filtering ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Mode Estimation ◽  
Log Likelihood ◽  
Professional Tennis ◽  
Elo Rating System ◽  
Posterior Mode Estimation ◽  
Approximate Bayesian ◽  
Chess Players ◽  
Probabilistic Justification

Abstract The Elo rating system, originally designed for rating chess players, has since become a popular way to estimate competitors’ time-varying skills in many sports. Though the self-correcting Elo algorithm is simple and intuitive, it lacks a probabilistic justification which can make it hard to extend. In this paper, we present a simple connection between approximate Bayesian posterior mode estimation and Elo. We provide a novel justification of the approximations made by linking Elo to steady-state Kalman filtering. Our second key contribution is to observe that the derivation suggests a straightforward procedure for extending Elo. We use the procedure to derive versions of Elo incorporating margins of victory, correlated skills across different playing surfaces, and differing skills by tournament level in tennis. Combining all these extensions results in the most complete version of Elo presented for the sport yet. We evaluate the derived models on two seasons of men’s professional tennis matches (2018 and 2019). The best-performing model was able to predict matches with higher accuracy than both Elo and Glicko (65.8% compared to 63.7 and 63.5%, respectively) and a higher mean log-likelihood (−0.615 compared to −0.632 and −0.633, respectively), demonstrating the proposed model’s ability to improve predictions.

Effect of Different Dentifrices, Bleaching with 35% Hydrogen Peroxide, and Red Wine on Surface Color and Roughness of Bovine Enamel

2020 ◽  
Vol 02 ◽  
Author(s):  
RM Garcia ◽  
WF Vieira-Junior ◽  
JD Theobaldo ◽  
NIP Pini ◽  
GM Ambrosano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydrogen Peroxide ◽  
Generalized Linear Models ◽  
Repeated Measures ◽  
Red Wine ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Artificial Saliva ◽  
Surface Color ◽  
Dental Bleaching ◽  
Surface Alteration ◽  
Bovine Enamel

Objective: To evaluate color and roughness of bovine enamel exposed to dentifrices, dental bleaching with 35% hydrogen peroxide (HP), and erosion/staining by red wine. Methods: Bovine enamel blocks were exposed to: artificial saliva (control), Oral-B Pro-Health (stannous fluoride with sodium fluoride, SF), Sensodyne Repair & Protect (bioactive glass, BG), Colgate Pro-Relief (arginine and calcium carbonate, AR), or Chitodent (chitosan, CHI). After toothpaste exposure, half (n=12) of the samples were bleached (35% HP), and the other half were not (n=12). The color (CIE L*a* b*, ΔE), surface roughness (Ra), and scanning electron microscopy were evaluated. Color and roughness were assessed at baseline, post-dentifrice and/or -dental bleaching, and after red wine. The data were subjected to analysis of variance (ANOVA) (ΔE) for repeated measures (Ra), followed by Tukey ́s test. The L*, a*, and b* values were analyzed by generalized linear models (a=0.05). Results: The HP promoted an increase in Ra values; however, the SF, BG, and AR did not enable this alteration. After red wine, all groups apart from SF (unbleached) showed increases in Ra values; SF and AR promoted decreases in L* values; AR demonstrated higher ΔE values, differing from the control; and CHI decreased the L* variation in the unbleached group. Conclusion: Dentifrices did not interfere with bleaching efficacy of 35% HP. However, dentifrices acted as a preventive agent against surface alteration from dental bleaching (BG, SF, and AR) or red wine (SF). Dentifrices can decrease (CHI) or increase (AR and SF) staining by red wine.

Economic burden of readmission due to postoperative cerebrospinal fluid leak in Chinese patients

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (16) ◽  
pp. 1105-1115
Author(s):  
Shuqing Wu ◽  
Xin Cui ◽  
Shaoyu Zhang ◽  
Wenqi Tian ◽  
Jiazhen Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cerebrospinal Fluid ◽  
Generalized Linear Models ◽  
Economic Burden ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Chinese Patients ◽  
Cerebrospinal Fluid Leakage ◽  
Index Hospitalization ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Hospitalization Cost

Aim: This real-world data study investigated the economic burden and associated factors of readmissions for cerebrospinal fluid leakage (CSFL) post-cranial, transsphenoidal, or spinal index surgeries. Methods: Costs of CSFL readmissions and index hospitalizations during 2014–2018 were collected. Readmission cost was measured as absolute cost and as percentage of index hospitalization cost. Factors associated with readmission cost were explored using generalized linear models. Results: Readmission cost averaged US$2407–6106, 35–94% of index hospitalization cost. Pharmacy costs were the leading contributor. Generalized linear models showed transsphenoidal index surgery and surgical treatment for CSFL were associated with higher readmission costs. Conclusion: CSFL readmissions are a significant economic burden in China. Factors associated with higher readmission cost should be monitored.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document