Expected credit losses under imperfect foresight: insights from a partial equilibrium model

Author(s):  
Antonio Sánchez Serrano
Author(s):  
Jamal Othman ◽  
Yaghoob Jafari

Malaysia is contemplating removal of most of her subsidy support measures including subsidies on cooking oil which is largely palm oil based. This paper aims to examine the effects of cooking oil subsidy removals on the competitiveness of the oil palm subsector and related markets. This is done by developing and applying a comparative static, multi-commodity, partial equilibrium model with multi-stages of production function for the Malaysian perennial crops subsector which explicitly links different stages of production, primary and intermediate input markets, trade, and policy linkages. Results partly suggest that export of cooking oil will increase by 0.2 per cent due to a 10 per cent cooking oil subsidy reduction, while domestic output of cooking oil may eventually see a net decline of 1.97 per cent. The results clearly point out that the effect of reducing cooking oil subsidies is relatively small at the upstream levels and therefore it only induces minute effects on factor markets. Consequently, the market for other agricultural crops is projected to change very marginally.   Keywords: Multicomodity, comparative statics, partial equilibrium model, output supply-factor markets linkages, effects of cooking oil subsidy removals.


Economica ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mihail Roscovan ◽  

This article presents the methodology and results of modelling for the analysis on energy affordability and assessing the impact of a possible value added tax increase on the affordability of households to consume adequate levels of natural gas, electricity and heat. The analysis of the reform impact of the subsidy schemes is based on a partial equilibrium model which measures the impact of reforms on energy affordability of different householder groups and budgetary revenue and expenditure, but also on greenhouse gas emissions. Using of targeted social policies generates a budget surplus that can be allocated to energy


2008 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 1189-1208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geraldo da Silva e Souza ◽  
Eliseu Alves ◽  
Rosaura Gazzola ◽  
Renner Marra

A partial equilibrium model for the meat market is fit to Brazilian data by three stages least squares. The model is consistent with the data and may be used for simulation purposes. In this context we compare model simulations for the near future with the OECD/ Aglink outlook. To illustrate using the model for simulations in policy assessments, we investigate the effect of a relative increase in corn price on the poultry and pork markets, coeteris paribus.


Poljoprivreda ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 45-51
Author(s):  
David Kranjac ◽  
Emil Erjavec ◽  
Nikola Raguž ◽  
Sanja Jelić Milković ◽  
Ivan Štefanić ◽  
...  

Srednjoročna simulacija razvoja glavnih agrarno-političkih pokazatelja tržišta goveđega mesa u Hrvatskoj do 2030. godine izrađena je putem modela parcijalne ravnoteže AGMEMOD (AGricultural MEmber State MODeling). Rezultati modela do kraja simuliranoga razdoblja, uz pretpostavku nastavka postojećih mjera i instrumenata Zajedničke poljoprivredne politike, potvrđuju razvoj negativnih trendova u sklopu tržišta goveđega mesa uočenih pregledom povijesnih podataka. Do kraja simuliranoga razdoblja očekuje se smanjenje ukupnoga broja goveda za 8,63% i proizvodnje goveđega mesa za 24,46%, dok domaća potrošnja raste za 25,91%. Negativni proizvodni pokazatelji uz rastuću domaću potrošnju mogli bi uzrokovati rast uvoza goveđega mesa za 82,68%, uz stupanj samodostatnosti od 49% do 2030. godine. Cijena goveđega mesa od ulaska Hrvatske u Europsku uniju je stabilna, te se stabilan razvoj, uz blagi trend smanjenja, očekuje do kraja simuliranoga razdoblja.


Author(s):  
Nuno Limao ◽  
Arvind Panagariya

Abstract An important question that has continued to elude trade economists is why trade interventions are biased in favor of import-competing rather than exportable sectors. Indeed, as Philip Levy (1999) points out, under a set of neutrality assumptions, the dominant political-economy model, Grossman and Helpman (1994), predicts a pro-trade bias. We demonstrate that if we replace the almost partial equilibrium model with a general equilibrium model in the Grossman-Helpman political economy model, anti-trade bias may emerge even if we assume symmetric technologies, endowments and preferences across sectors provided that the elasticity of substitution in production exceeds unity. In addition, we show that ceteris paribus, in general equilibrium, increases in the imports-to-GDP ratio lower the endogenously chosen tariff and the production share of the import sector in GDP has an ambiguous effect.


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