Universal Social Pensions Are Unaffordable … Not! Testing the Unaffordability Hypothesis in Latin America and the Caribbean

Is universal social assistance unaffordable? Targeting social policy has been praised as a magic solution to select the ‘deserving poor’ and efficiently use the scarce resources in the Global South. The article tests the unaffordability hypothesis using five counterfactual analyses based on expenditure redirection (military expenditure, energy subsidies, and the potential illegal/odious external debt servicing) and increasing tax revenues (income and trade tax) in up to thirty-three countries. The article shows the revenue-generating potential of taxes and reprioritising expenditures from unproductive to productive areas to finance – totally or partly- basic universal social pensions in large part of Latin America and the Caribbean; therefore, dispelling the unaffordability myth.

Midterm polls will knock Argentine budget off course

Significance The debate has been delayed by November 14 midterm elections. However, the budget has already been criticised both by the opposition, which considers the forecasts excessively optimistic, and by Vice-President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) and her supporters, who believe fiscal tightening in the first half was responsible for the government’s poor performance in the August open primaries. Impacts The 2021 budget deficit will be narrower than initial expectations thanks to the sharp fiscal adjustment in the first half. Next year’s fiscal adjustment will involve cutting energy subsidies, prompting higher tariffs and inflation. Absent new foreign credit, increased Central Bank transfers to the Treasury could fuel an inflationary spiral.

Modelling the Impact of Energy Subsidies Reform in the Republic of Moldova

This article presents the methodology and results of modelling for the analysis on energy affordability and assessing the impact of a possible value added tax increase on the affordability of households to consume adequate levels of natural gas, electricity and heat. The analysis of the reform impact of the subsidy schemes is based on a partial equilibrium model which measures the impact of reforms on energy affordability of different householder groups and budgetary revenue and expenditure, but also on greenhouse gas emissions. Using of targeted social policies generates a budget surplus that can be allocated to energy

Nihil novi sub sole: The Need for Rethinking WTO and Green Subsidies in Light of United States – Renewable Energy

US–Renewable Energy is the last in a series of WTO disputes involving subsidies schemes with local content requirements. Local content requirements (LCRs) are highly discriminatory and trade distortive instruments and therefore all cases concerning green energy have been found to violate WTO law. However, recent jurisprudence has developed a different definition of prohibited LCRs under the GATT and the SCM agreement, the latter allowing for some leeway to define origin of products under a government subsidy scheme. Depending how the subsidy scheme is framed, it will be able to be excused from the GATT's more stringent prohibition of LCRs, this raises question of consistency in the application of the LCRs prohibition. Moreover, we review a simple and robust approach that modern welfare economics suggests for framing discussions of subsidy policy. We apply this approach to the case of renewable energy subsidies and discuss some complexities with respect to local content requirements. In conclusion, this allows us to critically assess and review proposals to increase coherence between WTO subsidy policy and green energy promotion policies and submit proposals to achieve better suited WTO subsidy rules.

IMF will strike a fine balance on Tunisian reforms

Significance Kooli was in Washington to advance talks for a new IMF programme. Tunis has requested a multi-year USD4bn credit arrangement, on top of a USD745mn Rapid Financing Instrument that the lender approved in April 2020 to help Tunisia battle the COVID-19 crisis. Impacts Securing a new deal with the IMF will be the government’s highest policy priority. The government will focus on operationalising a new unit to centralise the management and restructuring of SOEs, which pose debt risks. To demonstrate commitment to reforms, the government will set in motion plans to phase out energy subsidies beginning late this year.

The effect of energy subsidies on the sustainability of economy, society and environment: A case study of Iran

The elimination of energy subsidies leads to the increase in CPI (Consumer Price Index) di-rectly and indirectly. In this study, the effects removing energy subsidies on the Iranian econ-omies have been investigated; though, the main innovation introduced in the study was to con-sider the effect of energy price realization on the economy with respect to the monetary policy (path) that can be regarded as the third option; that is, rising energy price creates new sources that can cover the deficits of the countries. The countries don't need to cover their budget defi-cits by borrowing from the central bank; for this purpose, dynamic modeling in Vensim soft-ware was used via the equations obtained from the Time Series Data set prepared from 2000 to 2014. The results show that the annual increase of 10, 20, and 30 percent of prices after 2011 could have reduced liquidity volume in 2014 by 0.04, 0.11, and 0.75 million billion Rials respectively and leading to CPI reduction by 4, 7 and 10.3 units. Besides, the results indicated that the households reacted to gasoline price change more than the other two energy carriers; that is, gas and electricity. And the first income decile was the most sensitive decile of popula-tion towards price changes. compared to 2009, gasoline, gas and electricity consumption of the first decile declined by 68.5%, 21%, and 10% in 2010, respectively.

Efficiency and Equity Impacts of Energy Subsidies

Economic theory suggests that energy subsidies can lead to excessive consumption and environmental degradation. However, the precise impact of energy subsidies is not well understood. We analyze a large energy subsidy: the California Alternate Rates for Energy (CARE). CARE provides a price reduction for low-income consumers of natural gas and electricity. Using a natural field experiment, we estimate the price elasticity of demand for natural gas to be about −0.35 for CARE customers. An economic model of this subsidy yields three results. First, the natural gas subsidy appears to reduce welfare. Second, the economic impact of various policies, such as cap-and-trade, depends on whether prices for various customers move closer to the marginal social cost. Third, benefits to CARE customers need to increase by 6 percent to offset the costs of the program. (JEL C93, D61, H24, L94, L95, L98, Q48)