Climate Hazards and Risk Status: Explaining Climate Risk Assessment, Behavior, and Policy Support

2013 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 219-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyung Sam Park ◽  
Arnold Vedlitz
2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
R Badagliacca ◽  
M D'Alto ◽  
S Ghio ◽  
A Greco ◽  
S Papa ◽  
...  

Abstract Background In pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) upfront oral therapy represents the standard of care for naive patients at low and intermediate risk. However little is known about associated changes in risk assessment and prediction of low risk status achievement. Purpose To evaluate determinants of PVR reduction in patients treated with upfront oral therapy and to create a score to predict PVR reduction after upfront oral treatment and compared its additive value on top of the European and REVEAL scoring system in predicting treatment response. Methods One-hundred-eighty-one consecutive naive PAH patients treated with upfront therapy at 11 italian centers were retrospectively evaluated. Evaluation included clinical, hemodynamic and simple echocardiographic parameters, together with European and REVEAL 2.0 risk scores. Results At the time of diagnosis, the majority of the patients was idiopathic PAH (80.6%), female (66.3%), at intermediate risk, 71.8% and 55.2%, respectively, according to the European (average method) and the REVEAL 2.0 risk scores. Ambrisentan-Tadalafil was the most frequent combination used (62%). The median PVR reduction obtained after 180 days (IQR 79–394) was −40.4% (IQR −25.8; −45.3). Age ≥60 years, male-sex, baseline mPAP 48 mmHg associated with low CI (<2.5 l/min/m2), and RV/LV ratio >1 associated with low TAPSE (<18 mm) emerged as independent predictors of poor PVR reduction, defined as the lower tertile of PVR changes (−25.8%). A treatment response score was created deriving weighted integers from the beta coefficient. At second evaluation 78 (43.1%) patients achieved or remained at European-derived low risk status, while 63 (34.8%) considering the REVEAL 2.0 score. Multivariate analysis for the prediction of treatment failure, defined as the absence of low-risk status at follow-up, demonstrated the incremental prognostic power of the models incorporating the treatment response score (≥3) on top of the European and REVEAL 2.0 scores, improving risk discrimination by 63.2% (IDI index 0.056) and 36.8% (IDI index 0.080), respectively. Conclusions A significant proportion of PAH patients treated with upfront oral combination are not able to achieve a low-risk status. The treatment response score helps clinicians in predicting treatment failure at the time of diagnosis. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None


2013 ◽  
Vol 122 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 97-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. B. Ghile ◽  
M. Ü. Taner ◽  
C. Brown ◽  
J. G. Grijsen ◽  
Amal Talbi

2015 ◽  
Vol 153 (8) ◽  
pp. 1380-1393 ◽  
Author(s):  
U. B. NIDUMOLU ◽  
P. T. HAYMAN ◽  
Z. HOCHMAN ◽  
H. HORAN ◽  
D. R. REDDY ◽  
...  

SUMMARYClimate risk assessment in cropping is generally undertaken in a top-down approach using climate records while critical farmer experience is often not accounted for. In the present study, set in south India, farmer experience of climate risk is integrated in a bottom-up participatory approach with climate data analysis. Crop calendars are used as a boundary object to identify and rank climate and weather risks faced by smallhold farmers. A semi-structured survey was conducted with experienced farmers whose income is predominantly from farming. Interviews were based on a crop calendar to indicate the timing of key weather and climate risks. The simple definition of risk as consequence × likelihood was used to establish the impact on yield as consequence and chance of occurrence in a 10-year period as likelihood. Farmers’ risk experience matches well with climate records and risk analysis. Farmers’ rankings of ‘good’ and ‘poor’ seasons also matched up well with their independently reported yield data. On average, a ‘good’ season yield was 1·5–1·65 times higher than a ‘poor’ season. The main risks for paddy rice were excess rains at harvesting and flowering and deficit rains at transplanting. For cotton, farmers identified excess rain at harvest, delayed rains at sowing and excess rain at flowering stages as events that impacted crop yield and quality. The risk assessment elicited from farmers complements climate analysis and provides some indication of thresholds for studies on climate change and seasonal forecasts. The methods and analysis presented in the present study provide an experiential bottom-up perspective and a methodology on farming in a risky rainfed climate. The methods developed in the present study provide a model for end-user engagement by meteorological agencies that strive to better target their climate information delivery.


Energy Policy ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 51 ◽  
pp. 598-604 ◽  
Author(s):  
James D. Ward ◽  
Steve H. Mohr ◽  
Baden R. Myers ◽  
Willem P. Nel

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chin Chieh Liu ◽  
Ching Pin Tung

<p>      Adaptation is an indispensable part of climate change impact, and risk assessment plays an important role between data arrangement and strategy planning. This study aims at developing a framework from risk assessment to information presentation, then applying to risk communication. This framework refers to Climate Risk Template, defining risk as to the integration of hazard, exposure and sensitivity; simultaneously, Climate Risk Template is an auxiliary tool basing on Climate Change Adaptation Six Steps(CCA6Steps), which is the systematic procedure to analyze risk and plan adaptation pathway. This study emphasized on landslide disaster as the key issue and selected community residents, roads as the protected targets. First of all, collate stimulated results of landslide potential evaluation and literature, cases, questionnaires which were probed into exposure and sensitivity. Next, establish a factors list of climate risk and giving weights to correlation factors by Entropy Method. Finally, use risk matrix to evaluate the risk value and present the results of risk assessment by infographic. For essentially helping on risk communication, this study proposes a framework to make the general public understand the causes of regional disaster risk and assists executive units to implement climate risk assessment and adaptation pathway planning. Eventually, the study will innovate a prototype of using this framework; therefore, users just have to write down the key issue, protected target and choose the composition factors of risk, then they can accomplish climate risk assessment and generate climate risk infographic by themselves.</p><p>Keywords: Climate risk template, Climate risk assessment, Risk communication, infographic</p>


Blood ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 128 (22) ◽  
pp. 3815-3815
Author(s):  
Arash Mahajerin ◽  
Louis Ehwerhemuepha ◽  
Nina X. Hwang ◽  
William Feaster

Abstract Background Pediatric hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism (HA-VTE) incidence is rising and many centers have instituted guidelines for use of both mechanical and pharmacologic prophylactic measures. Objectives The primary objective of this work was to evaluate the pattern of enoxaparin use in eligible patients admitted to Children's Hospital of Orange County (CHOC) in the first 17 months from inception of the prophylaxis program. Methods CHOC has a risk-assessment program (Table 1) for patients > 12 years admitted for > 24 hours with categories of low (0 points), moderate (1 point), and high (> 2 points). The primary service admitting the patient was responsible for the risk-assessment. Low risk patients do not receive prophylaxis recommendations. Moderate risk patients are recommended to receive mechanical prophylaxis (mTP) in the absence of contraindications. High risk patients are recommended to receive mechanical prophylaxis and a Hematology consultation to determine use or not of pharmacologic prophylaxis (pTP). Univariate analyses were conducted on risk factor categories and those significant (p<0.05) were included in 1 of 2 multivariate logistic regression analyses. Since VTE risk status is calculated from components of the risk-assessment (i.e. acute and chronic conditions, immobility, history of VTE) a model with these variables may not also include the output variable, i.e. VTE risk status. This is to prevent potential confounding and problems due to multicollinearity. The first model evaluated likelihood of pTP relative to VTE risk status and the second model relative to chronic conditions, immobility, and historic factors (independent of VTE risk status). Results 3557 patients were eligible and 2846 (80%) had the risk-assessment form completed. 36 (1.3%) of these patients had incomplete data yielding a total of 2810 patients for analyses. Of those 2810, 34 (1.2%) patients received pTP. The female:male ratio was 1.1:1 and age distribution (n, %) by year was: 12 (369, 13.1%), 13 (383, 13.6%), 14 (443, 15.7%), 15 (476, 16.9%), 16 (419, 14.9%), 17 (339, 12%), 18 (152, 5.4%), 19 (101, 3.6%), 20 (83, 2.9%), 21 (25, 0.9%), 22 (3, 0.1%), 23 (5, 0.2%), 24 (5, 0.2%), 25 (1, 0.04%), 26 (4, 0.14%), 27 (1, 0.04%), 33 (1, 0.04%). Univariate analyses (Table 2) revealed significance of increasing age [p<0.01, OR 1.26 (1.12-1.4)], increasing length of stay (LOS), [p<0.01, OR 1.05 (1.03-1.07)], presence of a chronic condition [p<0.01, OR 3.62 (1.34, 8.31)], acute condition [p<0.01, OR 5.69 (2.7-11.44)], immobility [p<0.01, OR 3.25 (1.42-6.78)], history of VTE [p<0.01, OR 8.04 (1.87-24.02)], presence of a contraindication to mTP [p<0.01, OR 10.22 (3.71-24.1)], and risk status of high [p<0.01, OR 27.29 (5.83-486.82)]. The first multivariate model (Table 3) revealed significance of increasing age [p<0.01, OR 1.21 (1.06-1.36)], increasing LOS [p<0.01, OR 1.04 (1.02-1.06)], contraindication to mTP [p<0.01, OR 4.76 (1.65-12)], and risk status of high [p<0.01, OR 15.24 (3.11-275.51)]. The second multivariate model (Table 3) confirmed significance of increasing age [p<0.01, OR 1.25 (1.1-1.42)], and contraindication to mTP [p<0.01, OR 5.08 (1.57-14.17)]. Conclusions There is a lack of evidence-based guidelines for VTE prophylaxis in pediatrics. Prophylaxis programs and practice patterns likely have wide variation, therefore, the objective of this work was to identify the practice pattern at a single children's hospital in the first 17 months of the program. Utilization of pTP was low overall and associated with increasing age, increasing LOS, contraindication to MTP, and a risk status of high. It is accepted practice to utilize VTE prophylaxis in adults and this likely played a role in the increasing likelihood of pTP with increasing age. The higher likelihood associated with increasing LOS likely reflects that risk of HA-VTE increases with longer LOS. The association with high risk status was intended with design of the program and the association with a contraindication to mTP likely reflects that patient severity was deemed significant enough to warrant prophylaxis and pTP was the only remaining option. Pediatric VTE prophylaxis programs are becoming more prevalent despite a lack of evidence-based guidelines. Understanding patterns of prophylaxis use may help guide crucial comparative studies to assess efficacy, safety, and cost-benefit. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


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