248 Background: The prognosis of patients with advanced pancreatic cancer (APC) is extremely poor. Several clinical and laboratory factors have been known to be associated with prognosis of APC patients. However, there are few clinically available prognostic models predicting survival in APC patients receiving palliative chemotherapy. Methods: To construct a prognostic model to predict survival in APC patients receiving palliative chemotherapy, we analyzed the clinical data from 306 consecutive patients with pathologically confirmed APC who received palliative chemotherapy. We selected six independent prognostic factors which remained independent prognostic factors after multivariate analysis. Thereafter, we rounded the regression coefficient (β) for each independent prognostic factor derived from the Cox regression equation (HR = eβ) and developed a prognostic index (PI). Results: Developed prognostic index (PI) was as follows: PI = 2 (if performance status score 2–3) + 1 (if metastatic disease) + 1 (if initially unresectable disease) + 1 (if carcinoembryonic antigen level ≥5.0 ng/ml) + 1 (if carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level ≥1000 U/ml) + 2 (if neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio ≥5). The patients were classified into three prognostic groups: favorable (PI 0–1, n = 73), intermediate (PI 2–3, n = 145), and poor prognosis (PI 4–8, n = 88). The median overall survival for each prognostic group was 16.5, 12.3 and 6.2 months, respectively, and the 1-year survival rates were 67.3%, 51.3%, and 19.1%, respectively (P < 0.01). The c index of the model was 0.658. This model was well calibrated to predict 1-year survival, in which overestimation (2.4% and 0.2% in the favorable and poor prognosis groups, respectively) and underestimation (3.6% in the intermediate prognosis group) were observed. Conclusions: This prognostic model based on readily available clinical factors would help clinicians in estimating the overall survival in APC patients receiving palliative chemotherapy.
Second-line palliative chemotherapy, survival, and prognostic factors in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer
