An Improved Neural Network Application for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Power Systems

2000 ◽  
Vol 28 (8) ◽  
pp. 703-721 ◽  
Author(s):  
Slavisa Krunic, Igor Krcmar, Nikola Rajakov
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 8129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changchun Cai ◽  
Yuan Tao ◽  
Tianqi Zhu ◽  
Zhixiang Deng

Accurate load forecasting guarantees the stable and economic operation of power systems. With the increasing integration of distributed generations and electrical vehicles, the variability and randomness characteristics of individual loads and the distributed generation has increased the complexity of power loads in power systems. Hence, accurate and robust load forecasting results are becoming increasingly important in modern power systems. The paper presents a multi-layer stacked bidirectional long short-term memory (LSTM)-based short-term load forecasting framework; the method includes neural network architecture, model training, and bootstrapping. In the proposed method, reverse computing is combined with forward computing, and a feedback calculation mechanism is designed to solve the coupling of before and after time-series information of the power load. In order to improve the convergence of the algorithm, deep learning training is introduced to mine the correlation between historical loads, and the multi-layer stacked style of the network is established to manage the power load information. Finally, actual data are applied to test the proposed method, and a comparison of the results of the proposed method with different methods shows that the proposed method can extract dynamic features from the data as well as make accurate predictions, and the availability of the proposed method is verified with real operational data.


2013 ◽  
Vol 816-817 ◽  
pp. 766-769
Author(s):  
Dong Xiao Niu ◽  
Lei Lei Fan ◽  
Chun Xiang Liu

Accurate short-term load forecasting contributes to safe and economic operation of power systems. Due to the shortcomings of traditional wavelet neural network (WNN), which usually has low convergence rate and easily falls into local minimum, an improved wavelet neural network (IWNN) is proposed to modify the algorithm by introducing momentum. Together with the weighted average method (WA) and WNN, these three methods are applied to an example of short-term load forecasting. The results show that compared with the WA method, WNN has obvious advantages of nonlinear fitting and forecasting, and the IWNN method is superior to the others in terms of prediction accuracy and generalization capability, which is helpful to further improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 130
Author(s):  
Gwo-Ching Liao

Load forecasting (LF) is essential in enabling modern power systems’ safety and economical transportation and energy management systems. The dynamic balance between power generation and load in the optimization of power systems is receiving increasing attention. The intellectual development of information in the power industry and the data acquisition system of the smart grid provides a vast data source for pessimistic load forecasting, and it is of great significance in mining the information behind power data. An accurate short-term load forecasting can guarantee a system’s safe and reliable operation, improve the utilization rate of power generation, and avoid the waste of power resources. In this paper, the load forecasting model by applying a fusion of Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (ILSTM-NN), and then establish short-term load forecasting using this novel model. Sparrow Search Algorithm is a novel swarm intelligence optimization algorithm that simulates sparrow foraging predatory behavior. It is used to optimize the parameters (such as weight, bias, etc.) of the ILSTM-NN. The results of the actual examples are used to prove the accuracy of load forecasting. It can improve (decrease) the MAPE by about 20% to 50% and RMSE by about 44.1% to 52.1%. Its ability to improve load forecasting error values is tremendous, so it is very suitable for promoting a domestic power system.


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