Predictive validity and measurement invariance in juvenile risk assessment: Implications for racial and ethnic disparities in juvenile justice

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Sullivan ◽  
James McCafferty ◽  
Jamie Newsome ◽  
Amber Mandalari
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Juvenile Justice ◽  
Measurement Invariance ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Racial And Ethnic Disparities

Have Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Juvenile Justice Declined Over Time? An Empirical Assessment of the DMC Mandate

2020 ◽  
pp. 154120402096216
Author(s):  
Steven N. Zane
Keyword(s):  
Juvenile Justice ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
Racial And Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Implementation Failure ◽  
Theory Failure ◽  
Hispanic White ◽  
Final Disposition ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Research And Policy

The present study examines whether racial and ethnic disparities in juvenile justice declined significantly in a state that has made substantial reform efforts in compliance with the Disproportionate Minority Contact (DMC) mandate. Using a sample of all referrals in Connecticut with final disposition in 2000 (N = 18,458) or 2010 (N = 12,265), the study employed multilevel modeling with cross-level interactions to assess whether disparities changed over time for five outcomes: detention, petition, adjudication, commitment, and waiver to criminal court. Findings indicated that Black-White disparities in detention decreased over time, while Black-White disparities increased for petition, adjudication, and waiver. Findings also indicated that Hispanic-White disparities increased for adjudication (while not changing for other outcomes). The limited success of the DMC mandate may be explained by implementation failure or theory failure. Adjudicating between these alternative explanations is needed to guide future reform efforts. Several implications for research and policy are discussed, including whether reform efforts should focus on overall harm reduction rather than proportional representation.

A Meta-Analysis of Juvenile Justice Risk Assessment Instruments

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (11) ◽  
pp. 1367-1381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig S. Schwalbe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Juvenile Justice ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Female Offenders ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Case Processing ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Gender Biases ◽  
Meta Analyses

Juvenile justice systems have widely adopted risk assessment instruments to support judicial and administrative decisions about sanctioning severity and restrictiveness of care. A little explored property of these instruments is the extent to which their predictive validity generalizes across gender. The article reports on a meta-analysis of risk assessment predictive validity with male and female offenders. Nineteen studies encompassing 20 unique samples met inclusion criteria. Findings indicated that predictive validity estimates are equivalent for male and female offenders and are consistent with results of other meta-analyses in the field. The findings also indicate that when gender differences are observed in individual studies, they provide evidence for gender biases in juvenile justice decision-making and case processing rather than for the ineffectiveness of risk assessment with female offenders.

School Strictness and Disproportionate Minority Contact

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 241-259 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miner P. “Trey” Marchbanks ◽  
Anthony A. Peguero ◽  
Kay S. Varela ◽  
Jamilia J. Blake ◽  
John Major Eason
Keyword(s):  
Juvenile Justice ◽  
School Discipline ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Suburban Schools ◽  
Racial And Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Disproportionate Minority Contact ◽  
Discipline Practices ◽  
Urban Rural ◽  
School Discipline Practices ◽  
The Relationship

There are racial and ethnic disparities associated with school discipline practices and juvenile justice contact. In addition, research suggests that stricter school discipline practices and disproportionate minority contact for minority youth are relatively more prevalent in urban areas. What remains unknown, however, is the relationship between race and ethnicity, school discipline practices, and juvenile justice referrals across urban, rural, and suburban schools. Therefore, this study draws from the Texas Education Agency’s Public Education Information Management System to investigate the relationship between school discipline practices and juvenile justice contact with a focus on racial and ethnic disparities in urban, rural, and suburban schools. Findings indicate that both stringent and lenient school discipline practices have effects on juvenile justice referrals as well as racial and ethnic disparities across distinct school locations; however, there are important and distinctive nuances that are presented and examined.

THE ROLE OF SCIENCE IN REDUCING RACIAL AND ETHNIC DISPARITIES IN THE JUVENILE JUSTICE SYSTEM

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 195-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nancy Rodriguez
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Juvenile Justice ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Equal Opportunity ◽  
Juvenile Justice System ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Racial And Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Criminal Justice Reform ◽  
Juvenile Justice Policy ◽  
Policies And Practices

AbstractIn recent years, we have witnessed various efforts by the federal government to advance our justice system and improve public safety. Collaborations across justice and service agencies and research on what works in criminal justice policy have been central in criminal justice reform activities. Within the juvenile justice arena, reducing rates of victimization and delinquency, as well as implementing strategies to reduce racial and ethnic disparities remain priorities. In this essay, I discuss how research on neuroscience and brain development, and racial and ethnic disparities in justice system outcomes has informed juvenile justice policy and procedural protections for youth. I also review how school policies and practices can perpetuate racial and ethnic disparities in justice outcomes. Throughout the essay, I discuss the federal government’s role in supporting research to advance policies and practices designed to reduce these harms. I highlight the implications of these activities and ways in which data and research can continue to play a key role in realizing equal opportunity and justice for all youth, especially as they are the most vulnerable members of society.

Racist Algorithms or Systemic Problems? Risk Assessments and Racial Disparities

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (12) ◽  
pp. 1576-1584
Author(s):  
Gina M. Vincent ◽  
Jodi L. Viljoen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Racial Disparities ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Racial Bias ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Racial And Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Prediction Of Recidivism ◽  
Systemic Problems

As recent and historical events attest, racial and ethnic disparities are widely engrained into the justice system. Recently, scholars and policymakers have raised concerns that risk assessment instruments may exacerbate these disparities. While it is critical that risk instruments be scrutinized for racial bias, some concerns, though well-meaning, have gone beyond the evidence. This article explains what it means for an instrument to be “biased” and why instruments should not all be painted with the same brush (some will be more susceptible to bias than others). If some groups get apprehended more, those groups will score higher on non-biased, well-validated instruments derived to maximize prediction of recidivism because of mathematics. Thus, risk instruments shine a light on long-standing systemic problems of racial disparities. This article concludes with suggestions for research and for minimizing disparities by ensuring that systems use risk assessments to avoid unnecessary incarceration while allowing for structured discretion.

Predictive Validity of the Joint Risk Matrix With Juvenile Offenders

2007 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 348-361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig S. Schwalbe ◽  
Mark W. Fraser ◽  
Steven H. Day
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Juvenile Offenders ◽  
Juvenile Justice ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Juvenile Justice System ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Race Ethnicity ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Gender Based

Actuarial risk assessment instruments promise to increase decision-making accuracy and equity in settings such as the juvenile justice system, but both aims presume high levels of predictive validity. Prior research suggests that the predictive validity of some juvenile justice risk assessment instruments differs across gender and race/ethnicity. The Joint Risk Matrix (JRM) described herein is an instrument developed to increase the predictive validity of risk assessment for the diverse populations served by the nation’s juvenile courts. The predictive validity of the JRM was estimated on a sample of 536 court-involved juveniles. The instrument demonstrated acceptable levels of validity across all juveniles (AUC = .710). Gender-based differences were explained by gendered patterns of referral to out-of-home placements. Differences by race/ethnicity were reduced compared with previous reports. The findings suggest that risk assessment can be improved by including measures related to the behavior and demeanor of offenders and the cooperation of their parents or caretakers.

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