Original Article: Business Cycle Co-Movement Between Africa and Advanced Economies: 1980-2011

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 113-115
Author(s):  
I. Botha
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Advanced Economies

scholarly journals Job protection deregulation in good and bad times

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romain Duval ◽  
Davide Furceri ◽  
Joao Jalles
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Projection Method ◽  
The State ◽  
Employment Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Local Projection ◽  
The Past ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
State Of The Economy

Abstract This paper explores the short-term employment effect of deregulating job protection for regular workers and how it varies with prevailing business cycle conditions. We apply the local projection method to a newly constructed dataset of major regular job protection reforms covering 26 advanced economies over the past four decades. The analysis relies on country-sector-level data, using as identifying assumption the fact that stringent dismissal regulations are more binding in sectors that are characterized by a higher ‘natural’ propensity to make regular adjustments to the workforce. We find that the response of sectoral employment to deregulation depends crucially on the state of the economy at the time of reform—deregulation increases employment if implemented during an economic expansion, but reduces employment if carried out in a recession. These findings are consistent with theory and are robust to a battery of sensitivity checks.

scholarly journals Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (40) ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanni Melina ◽  
Rafael Portillo
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Macroeconomic Volatility ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
Ssa Countries

We compare business cycle fluctuations in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Our main results are as follows: (i) African economies stand out by their macroeconomic volatility, which is is reflected in the volatility of output and other macro variables; (ii) inflation and output tend to be negatively correlated; (iii) unlike advanced economies and emerging markets (EMs), trade balances and current accounts are acyclical in SSA; (iv) the volatility of consumption and investment relative to GDP is larger than in other countries; (v) the cyclicality of consumption and investment is smaller than in advanced economies and EMs; (vi) there is little comovement between consumption and investment; (vii) consumption and investment are strongly positively correlated with imports.

scholarly journals Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes Since 1800

2012 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 69-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmen M Reinhart ◽  
Vincent R Reinhart ◽  
Kenneth S Rogoff
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Striking Feature ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
Advanced Economy ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Debt Overhang ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Advanced Economies

We identify the major public debt overhang episodes in the advanced economies since the early 1800s, characterized by public debt to GDP levels exceeding 90 percent for at least five years. Consistent with Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and most of the more recent research, we find that public debt overhang episodes are associated with lower growth than during other periods. The duration of the average debt overhang episode is perhaps its most striking feature. Among the 26 episodes we identify, 20 lasted more than a decade. The long duration belies the view that the correlation is caused mainly by debt buildups during business cycle recessions. The long duration also implies that the cumulative shortfall in output from debt overhang is potentially massive. These growth-reducing effects of high public debt are apparently not transmitted exclusively through high real interest rates, as in eleven of the episodes, interest rates are not materially higher.

scholarly journals Business Cycle Co-Movement Between Africa And Advanced Economies: 1980-2011

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 93-112
Author(s):  
C. Claassen ◽  
E. Loots ◽  
A. Kabundi ◽  
W. Viviers
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Advanced Economies

Forming Sources of Long-run Growth: How to Understand Them?

2014 ◽  
pp. 4-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Idrisov ◽  
S. Sinelnikov-Murylev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Accelerate Growth ◽  
Budget Institutions

The paper analyzes the inconsequence and problems of Russian economic policy to accelerate economic growth. The authors consider three components of growth rate (potential, Russian business cycle and world business cycle components) and conclude that in order to pursue an effective economic policy to accelerate growth, it has to be addressed to the potential (long-run) growth component. The main ingredients of this policy are government spending restructuring and budget institutions reform, labor and capital markets reforms, productivity growth.

Debates on monetary policy issues and economic situation: Searching for constructive comments

2016 ◽  
pp. 25-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Mogilat ◽  
Y. Achkasov ◽  
A. Egorov ◽  
A. Klimovets ◽  
S. Donets
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions

The article discusses approaches and instruments used in the Bank of Russia public analytical materials for analysis and forecast of macroeconomic conditions and monetary indicators. The authors focus on indicators of business cycle and monetary conditions, as crucial for monetary policy analysis. The attention is paid to issues most frequently discussed in scientific and expert literature, specifically, to new indicators and models presented in the Bank of Russia Monetary Policy Reports in 2015.

Introduction of Full Convertibility of National Currency: Problems of Theory and Practice

2005 ◽  
pp. 61-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Navoi
Keyword(s):  
Transition Economies ◽  
International Experience ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Additional Income

The article is devoted to actual questions of introducing convertibility of the ruble. The structure and definitions of convertibility are considered. On the basis of the international experience the economic essence of convertibility as a source of additional income of the states-emissioners is revealed. The sequence of stages of convertibility in advanced economies is presented, basic problems of introducing convertibility in developing as well as in transition economies are studied. The experience of transition to convertibility of the ruble and corresponding consequences for the Russian economy are analyzed.

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