Australian Business Cycles and Commercial Property Markets: Some Empirical Evidence Over Four Decades

2000 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-66
Author(s):  
David M. Higgins ◽  
Gerard de Valence
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Commercial Property ◽  
Property Markets

scholarly journals News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 993-1074 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Beaudry ◽  
Franck Portier
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Economic Fluctuations ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Widespread Belief ◽  
Way Of Thinking ◽  
The Many

There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of this perspective. In this paper we discuss mechanisms by which changes in agents' information, due to the arrival of news, can cause business cycle fluctuations driven by expectational change, and we review the empirical evidence aimed at evaluating their relevance. In particular, we highlight how the literature on news and business cycles offers a coherent way of thinking about aggregate fluctuations, while at the same time we emphasize the many challenges that must be addressed before a proper assessment of the role of news in business cycles can be established. (JEL D83, D84, E13, E32, O33)

scholarly journals Media reporting and business cycles: empirical evidence based on news data

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 1085-1105
Author(s):  
Michael J. Lamla ◽  
Sarah M. Lein ◽  
Jan-Egbert Sturm
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Media Reporting

scholarly journals Improving Australian Commercial Property Market Forecasting by Mapping Structural Changes in Built Environment

10.29007/3r3k ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Treshani Perera ◽  
Wejendra Reddy
Keyword(s):  
Built Environment ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Commercial Property ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Property Markets

Property market forecasting is an integral element of decision-making. It is critical that property analysts employ a wide - range of models and techniques for property forecasting. These models have one overriding aim of predicting reasonable estimates of key dependent variables (demand, supply, rent, yield, vacancy and net absorption) based on the independent variables of core economic activities. However, a broad-fronted social, economic, technical, political and ecological evolution can throw up sudden, unexpected shocks that result in a possibility of sceptical to unknown risk factors. These structural changes decrease, even eliminate predictability of property market performance. Hence, forecasting beyond econometrics is raised as the research problem in this study. This study follows a qualitative research approach, conducting semi-structured interviews with open-ended questions. The primary data were collected from 22 property stakeholders within Australia. Structural changes framework in the built environment is developed and categorised under PESTEL (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) factors. This framework was developed theoretically and subjected to empirical validation and improvement. Property conversions, integrated property functions in a single location, ‘Give and Take’ effect in property markets, NABERS compliance could be seen as emerging structural changes in the Australian commercial property markets. The understanding of the impact on the property market will provide a subjective overlay to improve the econometric forecasts.

Strange attractor in the Auckland commercial property market

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 579-596
Author(s):  
Moshe Szweizer
Keyword(s):  
Chaos Theory ◽  
Mathematical Reasoning ◽  
Market Dynamics ◽  
Property Market ◽  
General Behaviour ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Property ◽  
Market Conduct ◽  
Property Markets ◽  
Market Behaviour

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to provide a chaos theory-based framework, which can be used to model commercial property market dynamics.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is presented in two parts. In the first, rigorous mathematical reasoning is entertained, so to derive an attractor describing a set of feedback formulae. In the second part, the attractor definition is used to model the Auckland commercial office market. The model is exposed through a set of seven scenarios allowing for analysis of the market behaviour under various exogenously imposed conditions.FindingsThe general behaviour of the model is in agreement with the commercial property market conduct observed in Auckland. The model provides information related to the market turning points and allows for an explanation of some intricate market dynamics. These include the anatomy of a market peak and its response to the liquidity oversupply.Practical implicationsThe model may be used to expand our understanding of the market performance under various exogenically imposed conditions, which allows for planning of market interventions in a more refined manner.Originality/valueThe paper is original, in the way the chaos theory is applied to the property markets modelling and allows for expanding the understanding of the market behaviour.

Using system dynamics modelling to understand behaviour in UK commercial property markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Trevillion
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Systems Theory ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Research Tool ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Property ◽  
System Dynamics Modelling ◽  
Dynamics Modelling ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Property Markets

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to outline the benefits of using system dynamics modelling as a research tool to understand the dynamics of commercial property markets in the UK and their long-term behaviour. It highlights areas for future work.Design/methodology/approachThis is a concept paper that outlines a simple systems model of rental change in UK commercial property markets as a way of illustrating how a systems approach can be used to describe and model the market. The model concentrates on the user market and offers a view of market operation, according to which development activity is initiated by demand (linked to economic growth) and to which supply responds by producing development.FindingsThe model demonstrates how a systems approach can be used to model the impact of a wide range of market variables on rental growth. The approach allows non-linear modelling of the complex relationships and behavioural factors that are difficult to include in existing econometric models of the market. It highlights where existing knowledge is deficient, especially with regard to price elasticity of demand, the relationship between economic activity and take up, the potential impact of redevelopment on the supply of new property and rental growth and response times of various parts of the market development process to market signals. It outlines where further research is needed to incorporate real market data.Originality/valueDespite the wide application of the systems theory to business and other related areas, its use in commercial property research has been limited and has not gained much traction as a research tool. The work represents one of a very few studies applying the systems theory to the UK commercial property market.

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